Looking at when MGS4 launches in Japan, I don't think it is going to have the impact some people are expecting it to have.

Metal Gear Solid 2 on PS2 launched when PS2 was at about the numbers Wii has now ~6.2 million. The game sold to almost 500,000 users week one, and eventually sold nearly 900,000 units in Japan.

PS2 sales went from ~42k to ~118k when MGS2 released and then stabilized at enormous levels because the game was the main holiday title.

Metal Gear Solid 4 data will be in the week ending five weeks after May 10 (June 14).  PS3 sales will likely be 2.15-2.25 million when the game releases.

Judging by the size of the user base, the non-holiday release, pricing, etc 

I would put the game at 175k-225k week one...with PS3 averaging 30k/week for four weeks after its release.

I'm thinking it gets to ~500k in Japan.

What do you all think? 

Did you take into account bundles and the MGS 4 LE? The Japanese go crazy for those.

-Edited by moderator 

Too low for first week. Low end I would put it at 300k, with a max of 500k.

Not sure about hardware. Could be fantastic, could be good, could be mediocre. I think 30k might be a good number, considering how low the PS3 has gone recently.

I agree. 500.000 lifesales and about 200k in first week

about hardware sales, I'm not sure. The PS3 sales has an strange behaviour, high sales from new year to DMC4 and very low since then.

Well, here's my guesses...

It's strength will be somewhere between Portable Ops and Metal Gear Solid on the PS, so we're looking at something like 240-280k, 'least that'd be my guess.

After that, the second week would probably be no higher than 70k, and the PS3's hardware saleswould have a high week when it launches, but quickly drop to sub-30k levels. I'd put holiday sales for MGS4 at 5k a week.

Lifetime, I'd put it at 550k or so.

The Gun Metal or whatever ps3 already sold out in Japan.

The Japanese market has not really taken to the HD era in the way that was expected from them so it will be really hard to tell where the sales will end up anyway! I think that the game will push consoles anyway, the announced 100,000 units of the bundle being available from launch should help with that!

It could go either way, the game could surprise us and sell by the bucket loads as it looks to be an amazing game, but it could also be a lot lower than expecting!

Just too hard to predict, so i shant!

I think your wrong.

MGS is hardcore. MGS4 will sell just as well on the PS3 as it did on the PS2. I expect 400K first week, 850K lifetime.

Hardware, an increase from 10K a week to 60K first week, 35K second week after release.

Sales of the game: 300-500k first week but less than a million worldwide LTD... VERY front loaded.

Sales of the PS3: Rise to 30-50k for a few sustained weeks (thanks to the bundle) but the first week could be up to 100k.

Please don't use the word 'Japs'. Many people regard that as a racist slur.