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Forums - Sales Discussion - My Prediction for the rest of the year

Blue3 said:
All these predictions. Does any one ever think about how the economy of certain market impacts the sales? How is Japan doing, EU or USA ?

 actually... all are doing crappy thanks to China...



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This actually looks like a good prediction to me. PS3 has loads of stock sitting on the shelves right now waiting to be sold. People like the PS3 and its sales should rise considerably over the holidays. Seeing as how its at 3-4 mill right now another 3-4 mill doesn't seem like a big stretch going over the biggest sales time of the year when all of the killer applications will be coming out for it. Opinion with personal bias: Of course it will be no Wii, but once again the Wii might not have the stock to take advantage of the holidays, so who knows. Personally, whatever happens this holiday should give us a decent look at the PS3's future, and weather or not it really is dieing out early. If it sells well, it could come back. If it doesn't... it's a goner. If it sells ok, then we are back to where we left off.



DarkD: "Seeing as how its at 3-4 mill right now another 3-4 mill doesn't seem like a big stretch going over the biggest sales time of the year when all of the killer applications will be coming out for it." The prediction was 7 million this year, so this year PS3 is at maybe 2.5 million. So it has to get to 4.5 million. Thing is, PS3's selling about 50K per week worldwide right now, call it 1.5 million for the rest of the year. So it needs a big bump to push that nearer 100K, and to sell 1.5 Million around the holiday, to get to 4.5 million for the rest of the year. I think former is impossible. Nov/Dec last year 360 sold about 3 million, so that scale is possible for PS3 if it is considered a viable christmas present. So that's the way to sell 7 million this year. Sell 3 million over the holidays.



2007 Numbers: Consoles Sold: Nintendo Wii: 12 million think 14 mllion Xbox 360: 9 million think 11 million PlayStation 3: 7 million think 8 million PlayStation 2: 8 million think 5-6 million



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TheSource said:

ssj..the 21 week averages for Wii is 225,000 - that is even with less supply capability earlier in the year.  Capacity is increasing, Mario, Metroid, Brawl, Pokemon, Wii Health, Wii Music, Mario & Sonic, GH III, etc all have yet to come out, and we have not seen Nov-Dec sales when supply & demand will both be far greater than right now. 

If you ignore all of those things, and add the ~ 4.7 million Wii has sold in 2007 to the ~ 7.0 million Wii would sell at 225k/week for the rest of the year (31 more weeks), you arrive at ~ 11.7 million Wiis sold in 2007, in additon to the 3.19 million sold in 2006 - which would put you at 14.89 million Wii's sold from launch to Jan 1, 2008.

I think Wii will actually sell more like 340,000 for the next 31 weeks on average (10,540,000 total), in addition to the ~ 4.7 million Wii has sold already in 2007, bringing the 2007 total to 15.2 million, and the lifetime sales total to ~18.4 million by Jan 1, 2008 

PS3 will be mired in the under 4 million sold range until late July or early August barring a massive price drop or surprise hit released between now and then.  August to October will see stronger sales on big titles like Madden, GTA, Heavenly Sword, Lair - probably around 500-600k a month on average instead of the current 200-300k per month.  So say 5.5 million PS3s sold by October 31, 2007 since launch.  November, even at that price, can see 800k to 1.1 million sold rather easily, and December I think will be in the range of 1.5 to 2.25 million sold.  If everything goes disastrously over the holidays, I still think PS3 will be past 7.5 million, at best PS3 will be near 9 million.

360 will hit 10 million sold worldwide in mid June.  360 will be somewhere in the 10.5 to 11.5 million range come August, before the GTA, Halo, Bioshock, Blue Dragon, etc onslaugt in Aug & Sept.  The weekly averages will then jump from around 80-120k weekly worldwide, to the vicinity of 150k to 250k weekly worldwide/.  I'd put 360 at 11 million on Aug 1 - 11.7 million Sept 1, 12.8 million Oct 1, 13.6 million Nov 1, 14.8 million Dec 1, and 16 million by Jan 1 2008.  

The main thing to remember is that weekly averages worldwide have been about 225k Wii, 103k PS3, 97k 360 - with Wii never under 160k, with PS3 dropping since late March, and 360 always within 40k of it's average.


Good job! The sales estimates you've given seems pretty reasonable to me but I have slightly different figures in mind regarding Xbox360 and ps3 by the year end. Your estimates for those 2 consoles seemed kinda optimistic to me and IMHO, they will sell a few millions less like 6-7 million for PS3 and 13-14 million for Xbox360 by the end of the year while 18 million for Wii seems plausible!



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Regional Analysis  (only MS and Sony Consoles)
Europe     => XB1 : 23-24 % vs PS4 : 76-77%
N. America => XB1 :  49-52% vs PS4 : 48-51%
Global     => XB1 :  32-34% vs PS4 : 66-68%

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Frozen said:
2007 Numbers: Consoles Sold: Nintendo Wii: 12 million think 14 mllion Xbox 360: 9 million think 11 million PlayStation 3: 7 million think 8 million PlayStation 2: 8 million think 5-6 million

 you do know i was meaning sales between Jan 1st, 2007 and Dec 31st, 2007 right...



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ssj12 said:
a.l.e.x59 said:
At least the Playstation 3 will have "some" good exclusives.

some... im not going to argue... your not worth the time... at all 


What does this mean?



ssj12 said:

Before going into this editorial I would state the purpose of what I am writing. I would also like to clarify that I’m just a journalist and not a professional analyst. I figured I would give my opinion on how I think the consoles will do for the next few years. This is all completely my opinion and is to be considered so; I am no analyst this is just my general view of what might happen from the way things are looking today.

 

In this prediction I will be going through the end of this year. I will be presenting known facts to help present my own predictions on what’s going to happen. At the end of each year I will be putting what I believe the sales numbers of each game system, the market share each current generation handheld and console holds, and each company’s overall market share. Why would I do overall market share? Simple, there are other consoles and handhelds made by each company that hasn’t been discontinued with translates into as overall chunk of the market.

 

 

6/1/07 - 12/31/07

 

The last half of the year 2007 will be an interesting one. Each console will be bringing out some of their big guns. Each console will be releasing games that will make our jaws drop.

 

Nintendo:

 

This year will be one of two major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.

 

Turning our attentions to the ever popular Nintendo DS, sales will slow down a bit but stay pretty steady through the end of the year. Game-wise 3rd party will start taking advantage of the massive chunk of the handheld market the DS has and expand on the types of game play that touch screen can offer.

 

Sony:

With all those games being released is it possible that Sony will turn their sputtering console into a success like their former consoles? I believe yes. As long as the titles like, Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune and Heavenly Sword, are as great as they are looking then Sony will earn back any fans that they lost because of the high price.

Consoles Sold:

Nintendo Wii: 12 million

Xbox 360: 9 million

Sony: 25%

Sony: 37.3%


It's a good prediction, but far from professional.

 I think your buggest error is you over empisise Sony. Remember that the market doesn't move fast. It's pretty steady. We can safly say that what sells fast will alwasy sell fast, when sells slow will awlasy sell slow.

 I think the error is you say that PS3 will get a big jump(and when I say big I mean BIG) jump based on titles. But, I doubt that will help. The price is what is killinfg it, and as long as it stays high it will never sell. It's unaffordable, even for the biggest fan boy. If this was the price of the 360, then your right. but theres no market for it. It's just too expensive.

 Also, looking at your Wii I disagree that nintendo is going gimmicky. The first years of the DS were similar, but 2md half of 2005 changed this with Nintendogs Meteos, and Brain Age in 2006. We have seen some games  that will use it well, but we'll have to wait and see what Nintendo has at E3.

Beyond what I said everything else is fine. Good job!



Here are my predictions for the rest of this generation.

I don't think the Wii will sell more than 50 million consoles.

I don't think the 360 will sell more than 50 million consoles. Maybe not even 40 million.

Not sure what I want to predict yet for the PS3. I'll let you all know in the Fall.



ssj12 said:
Blue3 said:
All these predictions. Does any one ever think about how the economy of certain market impacts the sales? How is Japan doing, EU or USA ?

actually... all are doing crappy thanks to China...


 QFT



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