My Prediction for the rest of the year

[freedquaker]

TheSource said:

ssj..the 21 week averages for Wii is 225,000 - that is even with less supply capability earlier in the year.  Capacity is increasing, Mario, Metroid, Brawl, Pokemon, Wii Health, Wii Music, Mario & Sonic, GH III, etc all have yet to come out, and we have not seen Nov-Dec sales when supply & demand will both be far greater than right now. 

If you ignore all of those things, and add the ~ 4.7 million Wii has sold in 2007 to the ~ 7.0 million Wii would sell at 225k/week for the rest of the year (31 more weeks), you arrive at ~ 11.7 million Wiis sold in 2007, in additon to the 3.19 million sold in 2006 - which would put you at 14.89 million Wii's sold from launch to Jan 1, 2008.

I think Wii will actually sell more like 340,000 for the next 31 weeks on average (10,540,000 total), in addition to the ~ 4.7 million Wii has sold already in 2007, bringing the 2007 total to 15.2 million, and the lifetime sales total to ~18.4 million by Jan 1, 2008 

PS3 will be mired in the under 4 million sold range until late July or early August barring a massive price drop or surprise hit released between now and then.  August to October will see stronger sales on big titles like Madden, GTA, Heavenly Sword, Lair - probably around 500-600k a month on average instead of the current 200-300k per month.  So say 5.5 million PS3s sold by October 31, 2007 since launch.  November, even at that price, can see 800k to 1.1 million sold rather easily, and December I think will be in the range of 1.5 to 2.25 million sold.  If everything goes disastrously over the holidays, I still think PS3 will be past 7.5 million, at best PS3 will be near 9 million.

360 will hit 10 million sold worldwide in mid June.  360 will be somewhere in the 10.5 to 11.5 million range come August, before the GTA, Halo, Bioshock, Blue Dragon, etc onslaugt in Aug & Sept.  The weekly averages will then jump from around 80-120k weekly worldwide, to the vicinity of 150k to 250k weekly worldwide/.  I'd put 360 at 11 million on Aug 1 - 11.7 million Sept 1, 12.8 million Oct 1, 13.6 million Nov 1, 14.8 million Dec 1, and 16 million by Jan 1 2008.  

The main thing to remember is that weekly averages worldwide have been about 225k Wii, 103k PS3, 97k 360 - with Wii never under 160k, with PS3 dropping since late March, and 360 always within 40k of it's average.

Good job! The sales estimates you've given seems pretty reasonable to me but I have slightly different figures in mind regarding Xbox360 and ps3 by the year end. Your estimates for those 2 consoles seemed kinda optimistic to me and IMHO, they will sell a few millions less like 6-7 million for PS3 and 13-14 million for Xbox360 by the end of the year while 18 million for Wii seems plausible!