Before going into this editorial I would state the purpose of what I am writing. I would also like to clarify that I’m just a journalist and not a professional analyst. I figured I would give my opinion on how I think the consoles will do for the next few years. This is all completely my opinion and is to be considered so; I am no analyst this is just my general view of what might happen from the way things are looking today.
In this prediction I will be going through the end of this year. I will be presenting known facts to help present my own predictions on what’s going to happen. At the end of each year I will be putting what I believe the sales numbers of each game system, the market share each current generation handheld and console holds, and each company’s overall market share. Why would I do overall market share? Simple, there are other consoles and handhelds made by each company that hasn’t been discontinued with translates into as overall chunk of the market.
6/1/07 - 12/31/07
The last half of the year 2007 will be an interesting one. Each console will be bringing out some of their big guns. Each console will be releasing games that will make our jaws drop.
Nintendo:
Nintendo is bringing their rather typical frontline, for the Wii this time around, but with a few differences. Normally they release Zelda later in the console's life and Mario at launch. Well this time, as most of us already know, they switched them around and promised a second Wii based Zelda game. Another game that’s not making its debut around this time is Mario Kart. Where is the game? I'm thinking that the game will be released in 2009.
This year will be one of two major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.
Turning our attentions to the ever popular Nintendo DS, sales will slow down a bit but stay pretty steady through the end of the year. Game-wise 3rd party will start taking advantage of the massive chunk of the handheld market the DS has and expand on the types of game play that touch screen can offer.
Microsoft:
An onslaught of major titles is coming out each month for the rest of the year. The Xbox 360 will gain back a good chunk of the market taken from it by the Wii but ok only temporarily keep its market share because it will lose some to the PlayStation 3.
Most of the market gained back will be due to two titles of the exact same franchise. That franchise would be Halo and the game would be Halo 3 and Halo Wars, another game that will have a major impact on but won’t make as much of a difference will be Grand Theft Auto 4 due to the exclusive content that the Xbox 360 version contains that the PlayStation 3 version doesn’t.
The only questionable thing that everyone is wonder is that can Halo 3 sell as much as the previous Halo titles. Going from all the complaints about the beta it seems not too many people are jumping for joy over the game. Yes, people are enjoying it but apparently it’s not the massive jump they were hoping for between games.
Sony:
Since launch, the Sony PlayStation 3 hasn’t done very well. We all know this is due to two reasons; the price and lack of games. As of right now there are only 48 games released between the PlayStation Store and at retail. Back in March Sony announced that from then to December 31 there will be roughly 200 games released.
With all those games being released is it possible that Sony will turn their sputtering console into a success like their former consoles? I believe yes. As long as the titles like, Uncharted: Drake’s Fortune and Heavenly Sword, are as great as they are looking then Sony will earn back any fans that they lost because of the high price.
In the handheld market Sony will take a bit more market from Nintendo but not enough for Nintendo to even take notice. The main selling points will be the around the world connection to the PlayStation 3, the new PSP Store to be released this fall, the return of PaRappa the Rapper, and God of War.
During all this the Sony PlayStation 2 will continue selling gaining Sony a bit of profit from each console sold giving them a bit less tension when it comes to producing the PlayStation 3.
2007 Numbers:
Consoles Sold:
Nintendo Wii: 12 million
Xbox 360: 9 million
PlayStation 3: 7 million
PlayStation 2: 8 million
Handhelds Sold:
Nintendo DS: 18 million
PSP: 10 million
Gameboy Micro: 3 million
Current Gen Console Market Share:
Nintendo: 43%
Microsoft: 32%
Sony: 25%
Handheld Market Share:
Nintendo: 70%
Sony: 30%
Overall Gaming Market Share for 2007:
Nintendo: 49.2%
Microsoft: 13.4%
Sony: 37.3%
