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Forums - Sales Discussion - My Prediction for the rest of the year

ssj12 said:
HappySqurriel said:

If your numbers for system's sold is from now until the end of 2007 I would say that you're a probably a little low for the Wii and insanely high for the PS3 and XBox 360 ...

If they are for the full year 2007 your numbers are a little high for the XBox 360 and PS3 and insanely low for the Wii ...


 ill stand by my numbers, and they are for the full year. 


Well, lets just look at the numbers:

Consoles Sold

Nintendo Wii: 12 million
Xbox 360: 9 million
PlayStation 3: 7 million
PlayStation 2: 8 million

What we know is that before Nintendo increased production they were shipping (approximately) 1 Million units a month, they are currently shipping more than a Million units every month now while still selling out, and Q4 represents roughly 40% to 50% of console sales in a given year. If Nintendo doesn't increase supply and hasn't been saving up units for the holiday season they will still break 12 Million units in the full year 2007; with a production increase and a steady supply through the holiday season they could potentially hit the 20 Million unit mark.

On the other hand the PS3 is selling at a rate of (roughly) 250,000 units per month worldwide and has had a constant decline in sales; this works out to be 3 Million units in a year without factoring in holiday sales and (probably) about 5 Million if you're optimistic with your holiday numbers.

The XBox 360 is selling at a rate of (approximately) 350,000 to 400,000 units per month worldwide. This works out to yearly sales of about 5 to 6 Million units per month without factioring in holiday sales and 7 to 8 Million if you're optimistic about holiday sales.



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This year will be one of the five major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.

 

 

    fixed error in your prediction.                                                                                                                                                                                           
 

Neos - "If I'm posting in this thread it's just for the lulz."
Tag by the one and only Fkusumot!


 

HappySqurriel said:
ssj12 said:
HappySqurriel said:

If your numbers for system's sold is from now until the end of 2007 I would say that you're a probably a little low for the Wii and insanely high for the PS3 and XBox 360 ...

If they are for the full year 2007 your numbers are a little high for the XBox 360 and PS3 and insanely low for the Wii ...


ill stand by my numbers, and they are for the full year.


Well, lets just look at the numbers:

Consoles Sold

Nintendo Wii: 12 million
Xbox 360: 9 million
PlayStation 3: 7 million
PlayStation 2: 8 million

What we know is that before Nintendo increased production they were shipping (approximately) 1 Million units a month, they are currently shipping more than a Million units every month now while still selling out, and Q4 represents roughly 40% to 50% of console sales in a given year. If Nintendo doesn't increase supply and hasn't been saving up units for the holiday season they will still break 12 Million units in the full year 2007; with a production increase and a steady supply through the holiday season they could potentially hit the 20 Million unit mark.

On the other hand the PS3 is selling at a rate of (roughly) 250,000 units per month worldwide and has had a constant decline in sales; this works out to be 3 Million units in a year without factoring in holiday sales and (probably) about 5 Million if you're optimistic with your holiday numbers.

The XBox 360 is selling at a rate of (approximately) 350,000 to 400,000 units per month worldwide. This works out to yearly sales of about 5 to 6 Million units per month without factioring in holiday sales and 7 to 8 Million if you're optimistic about holiday sales.


Much better analysis with more thought in it.  Thanks.



Neos said:

 

This year will be one of the five major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.

 

 

fixed error in your prediction.

 no... I dont see Nintendo selling as well in 2008, 2009 will be a different story. 

 

So one of two major selling years stays.  



PC gaming is better than console gaming. Always.     We are Anonymous, We are Legion    Kick-ass interview   Great Flash Series Here    Anime Ratings     Make and Play Please
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Your PS2 sales are exaggerated too. The PS2 sales have been declining the last few weeks. I'd say it's likely a spiral to it's final resting number. Even if they weren't declining it's not likely that it would have gotten 8 million 07 units sold.



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ssj12 said:
Neos said:

 

This year will be one of the five major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.

 

 

fixed error in your prediction.

 no... I dont see Nintendo selling as well in 2008, 2009 will be a different story. 

 

So one of two major selling years stays.  


Just a hypothetical argument for you ...

Suppose for a moment that by the end of 2007 the Wii has sold 20 Million units, the XBox 360 is sitting at 16 Million units sold and the PS3 is at 8 Million units sold. This is followed up with your second major selling year where the Wii has a total (as of January 1st 2009) of 38 Million units, the XBox 360 is sitting at 24 Million units and the PS3 is sitting at 16 Million ... These estimates are actually below where I expect the Wii to be, and higher than I expect the PS3 and Xbox 360 to be

How many major, exclusive, third party games will be developed for the PS3 at this point in time? No publisher in their right mind would spend 2 (to 4) times as much to develop an exclusive PS3 game to sell it to a userbase that is 1/2 (or 1/3) the size.



HappySqurriel said:
ssj12 said:
Neos said:

 

This year will be one of the five major selling years for the Wii. With all the controller attachments and "Wii Title" games, I believe, people will start realizing that Nintendo will be using the Wii's abilities as a gimmick more than following through with their belief that game play is more important that the game itself.

 

 

fixed error in your prediction.

no... I dont see Nintendo selling as well in 2008, 2009 will be a different story.

 

So one of two major selling years stays.


Just a hypothetical argument for you ...

Suppose for a moment that by the end of 2007 the Wii has sold 20 Million units, the XBox 360 is sitting at 16 Million units sold and the PS3 is at 8 Million units sold. This is followed up with your second major selling year where the Wii has a total (as of January 1st 2009) of 38 Million units, the XBox 360 is sitting at 24 Million units and the PS3 is sitting at 16 Million ... These estimates are actually below where I expect the Wii to be, and higher than I expect the PS3 and Xbox 360 to be

How many major, exclusive, third party games will be developed for the PS3 at this point in time? No publisher in their right mind would spend 2 (to 4) times as much to develop an exclusive PS3 game to sell it to a userbase that is 1/2 (or 1/3) the size.


 most third party games suck anyways... exclusive or not....  as long as first party games are there and are great then there is no reason to worry about 3rd party's garbage.



PC gaming is better than console gaming. Always.     We are Anonymous, We are Legion    Kick-ass interview   Great Flash Series Here    Anime Ratings     Make and Play Please
Amazing discussion about being wrong
Official VGChartz Folding@Home Team #109453
 

3rd party games sell systems. You shouldn't make the same mistake that doomed Nintendo in the N64 era. Never forget how important 3rd parties are.



naznatips said:
3rd party games sell systems. You shouldn't make the same mistake that doomed Nintendo in the N64 era. Never forget how important 3rd parties are.

 third party games are normally just fillers between the good first party games. As long as third parties do multiplatform games then all is good. 



PC gaming is better than console gaming. Always.     We are Anonymous, We are Legion    Kick-ass interview   Great Flash Series Here    Anime Ratings     Make and Play Please
Amazing discussion about being wrong
Official VGChartz Folding@Home Team #109453
 

3rd parties are more than just fillers. Never underestimate how important third party is for ANY system.