And that leaves is something like 100 million for PS3 right?  Wii will exceed 50 million.

I don't think it will.

There's a good chance that the Wii is a fad. (Yes, I have one too.) There's an even better chance that the Wii will look very dated in three years. The best years for the Wii will be these first three. If they sell 12 million a year for three years, that's just 36 million. How many more years after that will people continue to want it as much as they do now?

If people want Wii gameplay, the other consoles only have to release a similar peripheral. It's not a strong barrier to entry. In fact, the PS3 Eye, which does a lot of motion tracking stuff, could take a lot of the novelty away from the Wii.

With price cuts to $99, Wii can prolong its sales when it starts looking like a Xavix game.  Then I can see it maybe breaking 50 million.

That sounds a lot more based on opinion rather than probabilty

So far I think TheSource has got the right idea, as well as HappySquirrel, who are using current sales logically to determine several possible ending scenarios for the three consoles in 2007

Upon what basis do you believe the Wii is a fad? Thus far, there is zero tangible evidence suggesting you are correct. I suspect that a lot of people who believe the Wii is a fad are simply engaging in wishful thinking, as they don't like the prospect of a Wii dominated gaming market -- with all the implications that has especially in terms of the type of games produced (less God of Wars, more Brain Ages).

It actually is very hard to enter the motion control world this late in the game -- it may even be harder than actually releasing a new console. The PS Eye is actually the perfect example of this. This peripheral for the PS2 had less than 2 million purchases, or about 1/55th of the entire PS2 user base, despite the fact that 10+ games were made in conjunction with it. In fact, I challenge you to find any "extra" peripheral that has ever sold well enough to really alter the way a system fundamentally plays. It's never been done. Every peripheral ever made has always ended up being a niche -- a little trinket to add on to the system for those who choose to do so. And there has never, ever been any peripheral that has been picked up by, say, 50+ percent of the console's user base.

Based on my owning the thing and having gotten tired of it.  The Wii craving is dying down.  Some of the people who played with my Wii (get your minds out of the gutter) and said they wanted one too never ended up getting one, probably because they were sold out, and have since lost their interest in getting one even when they are becoming available again.

That is just personal opinion and experience (which might also be in the line of thought of others too), but you couldn't really say that the sales of the Wii are dying down overall, even if they are in your group of friends

Yes, it's of course my opinion. Isn't a prediction like this always just an opinion?

Wii sales aren't necessarily going down. Even if demand decreases, as long as supply is less than demand, you will still have sellouts.

 Theres no neccesarly to it. Period. I think thats the problem people are having with your POV. The real world facts point to sales slowing down for the 360 and PS3. Both the official sales numbers in all three major markets, and the prices on Ebay which are far below retail for the PS3 and 360.

On the other hand the Wii console sales jumped up some 100+ thousand during April which is typically slow month, it still has horrible availability, and its till selling for a $100+ premium on Ebay.

Saying that the sales are slowing down, is not an opinion. Its just a flat out WRONG statement. Saying they may be slowing down in the near future? Thats an opinion, but you cant look at sales charts around the world and see the console sell hundreds of thousands more than the months before it and say sales are slowing down. Thats just wrong.

...even if the sales are dying, the console is still outselling 360 and ps3 combined overall, and those numbers will flipp two or three times when ssbb, and sm:g, and all other big games comes out.

and I don't belive that the sales are slowing down, and I will buy myself a console myself very soon indeed.
I attended recently a party and I totally pwened everyone, and I shit you not, the chicks just loved me :P

We were playing wiisports, and it actually were the first time i've ever played on a wii, gonna get one of my own very soon:P

Uh...I never said Wii sales are slowing down. You need to re-read what I wrote. I said the first three years will be the peak period for the Wii. Has three years gone by already? Obviously, within three years, sales will have stabilized or do you think it will sell out constantly for four years straight or more?  Sheesh...