Zelda will sell more. As for Metacritic, it depends. FF7 had its combat overhauled, and it turned out really well. If the Zelda remake stays too similar to the original in that regard, I think it might score lower. In fact, I recently replayed Twilight Princess and realized I no longer have the patience for Zelda's simple combat. Having played so much Sekiro, Nioh, and similar titles over the last decade, I can no longer tolerate the simple combat mechanics of the past.

And that would also depend on OOT tanking.

For context Skyward Sword HD (A remastered Wii game) sold 4m, which is probably more than Rebirth managed up until this summer.

A big budget remake of the most reknown Zelda game being hyped by Nintendo & sitting as their big Holiday title is going to shoot north of 10m at minimum and that's without us even considering the Zelda movie in Spring.

Essentially the floor for Zelda is still probably higher than the roof for revelation imo. Having great PC legs is how it can reach 8m-10m. I can't imagine how bad OOT Remake would have to be to sell less than 10m 

I do hope Final Fantasy gets its Resident Evil VII/Monster Hunter World moment where it finds a huge new audience but I don't it will be with the trilogy.

I think our thinking is fairly well aligned.

Switch 2s install base is only a fraction of the PS5’s, but that install base REALLY likes Zelda. I think Ocarina will win in sales and move a lot of hardware if bundled with the Switch 2.

As for critical consensus, I think Ocarina has an edge. FF7’s remake was a trilogy, and the bloat is a little divisive. Also, even though it is a profound leap over the PS1 title, audiences had a lot of time to acclimate to the improvements showcased in the previous two, so it won’t have the same ‘wow’ factor that the first of the trilogy had.

That said, sticking the landing always serves a trilogy well. This could be a Return of the King moment for Final Fantasy. If so, the install base for PS5 will be extremely difficult for Ocarina to ever overcome.

OoT only sold 7.6 million on the N64.  The Remake will be doing well if it sells a similar amount.  The only Zelda games that can sell 20m+ are based on Breath of the Wild's style.

I don't think that's true; there have been plenty of cases where a remake or remaster sells more than the original game. 

Ocarina 2026 will be selling to a much larger base than the original, in an era where the IP itself has a lot more sway. A lot of the new audience who weren't around in 1998 will want to check it out based on its legendary reputation.

Exceeding 7.6m sales is a reasonable and achievable goal for Ocarina.  Exceeding 20m sales is a much more difficult feat.  That is almost 3x the amount.  Otter is talking like 20m+ sales are a given for Ocarina.  It is unreasonable to expect that. 

There are a lot of "BotW only" type of Zelda fans out there now.  They showed up to buy Tears of the Kingdom, but the other Zelda games on the Switch didn't sell anywhere near those numbers.

I'm not saying 20m is a lock (though it is possible) but "it will be doing well if it sells as well as the original" (7.6m) is I feel an underestimation; over 10m should be pretty much guaranteed unless they completely drop the ball and butcher it somehow. (Which seems unlikely)

Ocarina is one of the most revered games of all time and will now be accessible to a much larger audience than ever owned an N64. Not just the BOTW base either, but also just millions of gamers in general who aren't old enough to have been around for the N64.

Seeing how wimpy NS2 software figures have been in comparison to NS1, I honestly do have to question whether we will see an Ocarina of Time remake hit anywhere near the likes of BotW/TotK. The former leaned heavily on very strong evergreen legs, the latter leaned heavy on the massive NS1 install-base giving it a major launch.

I would contend that the reason software figures have been lower for Switch 2 so far is that most of its first party releases to date have been second-tier IPs.

Pokemon Pokopia shows games can sell great on it.