If Xbox pursues physical media with their upcoming Xbox Helix, do you believe PlayStation 6 could be in trouble of being overtaken? Seeing how console sales have shifted YoY during the month of June 2026, with Xbox having gained momentum all while PlayStation stumbles, I do believe that if Microsoft does play their cards right with exclusivity and providing an affordable entry console, then this upcoming generation could be one in which PlayStation does lose a bit of its marketshare to Microsoft.

No... physical media will not save Xbox.

Two things could (maybe) put Xbox on top:

1. A catastrophe that severely damages PlayStation's position. (The end of physical media in 2028 is just a minor scratch, far from a catastrophe.)
It needs to be something major. Like a widespread defect with the PS6 or a dramatic drop in the quality of PlayStation games for a long period, like 10 years.

2. Xbox making a risky and agressive bet. Sustain the bet for many years bleeding trucks of money and focusingon 2 things:

A. Sacrifice a massive amount of money producing exclusives. ( I'm talking full exclusives, meaning drop PC, or at least Steam support. )

B. Create exclusives of overwhelming quality—superior to any other publisher on the market. A run of exclusives that, for instance, would be the most awarded and acclaimed titles during five separate periods over the next ten years.

Sure, a combination of these two factors also works.

If Xbox make an unlikely comeback it won't be because of physical games.

No. Xbox and Sony are both shitty. Xbox been king of slamming their dick in the door since 2013 and Sony has been drowning in a 1 inch rain puddle this entire generation. The AAA industry is fucked. AI is destroying everything. MS is directly responsible for the console price hikes by investing in AI. There is no saving anything right now. It goes beyond than just the gaming industry as outside issues are directly impacting it.

If anything, Sony has opened the door for Nintendo to absolutely dominate the console market.

Microsoft would not only have to go for physical media, they'd have to absolutely hemorrhage money to beat both Sony and Nintendo. They don't seem to be willing to do that anymore. Even a company as large as a Microsoft is not a charity. They going to continue to basically subsidize a perpetually underperforming subsidiary... why, exactly? And it's only rumored that MS will use physical media. 

Microsoft would need to pool crazier amounts of money into Xbox than they already have to beat PlayStation.
Even with current and likely future PlayStation blunders, it is simply not enough.
Xbox needs interesting exclusives from first and third parties to beat PlayStation. No PC for a lot of them, and no other consoles outside of Xbox. And prices would help too, If Helix is $100 or more cheaper than PS6 somehow that would be a big deal.
Physical games are a small part of the equation.

Indubitably.

Xbox would need hardware that sells at similar prices as Playstation, including something that can rival the PS handheld. They would need free or at least cheaper online play. They would need high quality exclusives. And if they can keep physical releases that would certainly help too.

If they can do all this then they may be able to claw back some market share. But keeping physical releases alone won’t do shit.