Around 35mil Switch 2 systems are projected to have shipped by end of March 2027. You think the Switch 2 won’t move 65mil over the following 5-7 years? That’s 9-13mil units shipped by year.

I mean, there's a reasonable chance it could be $600 or $700 next year.

If that's where hardware pricing is going, it means Nintendo might have to settle for like 80 million LTD or something, but it means total disaster for the PS6 and XBox Helix. 

They're going to be impacted even worse from AI price bumps, and in their price range, maybe even 50 million might not be reachable for the PS6. We're probably talking $900-$1000+ hardware for those hardware makers in that case and that would be a disaster for them. 

In that kind of scenario the Switch 2's LTD becomes almost immaterial, we're talking about the entire hardware industry being pushed into a pricing brackett that causes it to collapse wholesale. 

If the gen's length is standard and AI continues to screw everything up, these consoles aren't coming close to the figures you're expecting, (except the Switch 2 possibly).

But Sony is actually pretty safe as they don't need to sell you PS6's to remain dominant. Nintendo has it worse as they cannot rely on Switch 1 the way Sony can rely on PS5. But on the other hand, Sony is making sure everyone hates them and is about to kill one of their few remaining selling points against PC, and it's unclear what that means for their future.

Probably around 2030 or later, as PS5 will hit 100 million units before then obviously and it will take at least that long for Switch 2 to hit 100 million units.

If nintendo increases the price each year then it may not even reach 100mill

Definitely not by next year, though perhaps in two/three years. We haven’t even hit $500USD yet. And even at that price, I could still easily see +10M. To do worse than 10M in a given year would be significantly below PS5 and NS1’s worst year (pre-NS2) (and mind you, PS5 is already sitting at that $600USD price tag). Unless we hit $800USD for the entry SKU Switch 2, I don’t see Switch 2 getting hit that hard. Especially if we see a new 3D Mario, Pokémon, and economical NS2 SKU drop next year.

$499 and potentially even more is an ok price for core gamers. But for casuals who bought the Switch, that’s gonna be a pretty tough sell. And the further into the generation it gets, the more casual the buying audience becomes. At $499-549 I reckon Switch 2 would still reach 100M eventually, but I don’t think there are any guarantees here.

If Switch 2 ever hits $700 because they're forced to due to AI .... it's effectively game over for all game consoles.

Just stick a fork in the industry and call it done for however long that would take.

Because that would mean probably $1000+ for a "real" PS6 and at that pricing range the industry is basically donezo.

I don't think they would even be able to match sales of the PS1/N64 era in overall hardware sold. The business would be sent backwards almost four decades. 

Yeah it could be worse, we have a thread here about PS6 not even hitting 50 million, if the pricing gets that bad, that's definitely possible. 

I don't think there are 50 million households willing to pay $900-1000+ for a game console, especially in an era where exclusive games take 6-10 years+ to make. 

If Nintendo can't even make 100 mill, Sony and MS are in deep, deep shit because they are going to be even more expensive, likely significantly so.