With consoles not expected to have significant price reductions during their lifetime anymore, it's likely year one will be the peak sales year for each new console.

Given that, it's probably about 50/50 if the Switch 2 hits 100m. The price squeeze on components came at a very bad time for it. Unlike the Switch which was the most perfect timing possible.

The day the Switch 2 hits $700, PlayStation, Xbox and PC gaming will be dead, because that will be the only piece of modern hardware still (barely) affordable.

Xbox (not Microsoft gaming) is in deep shit regardless lol. Sony would be fine unless they start losing their PS4 and PS5 players. PS6 may be an extra piece like a midgen upgrade. Its sales performance won't necessarily be indicative of anything. Generations just aren't what they used to be.

A PS6 can sell 50 million and be seen as success if it helps sustain or grow Sony's playerbase across all their consoles. And it can be seen as a disappointment if it sells a 100 million but Sony's total playerbase is reduced by 20 million.

PS4 remained a big platform several years after PS5 launched. The PS5 may have a much longer longevity now that PS6 is too expensive and optional.

PS6 selling even "only" 50 million would be a disaster, lets be honest. 

Why would it be a disaster if revenue and profitability remain high? You just need to accept that generations are changing. Valve doesn't care whether you're playing on a SteamDeck or a 5090. Sony doesn't care whether you're playing on a PS5 or PS6 as long as you remain active and give them your money.

Success and failure will be dictated by active players and spenders.

Comparing Steam to consoles is not a good comparison. Games slowly stop being released on old consoles. If you can't migrate your userbase, eventually you lose it. Playstation might be very profitable with a PS6 selling poorly at first, but after 5 years, their userbase will diminish considerably and their profits will go away with that.

Blackberry was most profitable 2 years after the Iphone launched. That meant that the Iphone was not a threat, right? Profitability on the moment is not the one metric that defines it all.

The PS5 will have roughly the same performance as the PS6 Portable, give or take. So as long as the PS6 is receiving games, it makes a lot of sense for developers to also launch a PS5 version. And that could be for as long as until 2040 or so. There is absolutely no need for PS5 users to be worried about being left behind anytime soon.

Some people are claiming that PS5 users could drop out of gaming altogether if they can’t afford a PS6 - that makes no sense unless they were going to do that either way.

Or that they would move to Switch 2 or PC - why would they do that if they are happy with their PS5?

The CrossGen period is expected to span the entire PS6 generation at the very least. PS6's extra power will be harnessed for advanced RayTracing, PathTracing, framerate, and other easily scalable settings. PS5 should be supported for a very very long time, it might outlast the Switch 2 despite releasing 5 years earlier.

To top it off, the fewer units PS6 and similarly spec'd PC's sell, the more it futureproofs PS5 and similar hardware (including weaker PC's). The scenarios people will "stop playing" on PS5 are that they quit gaming, death/sickness, their PS5 dies, or they switch to another platform. The majority of 3rd party fans on PS aren't going to pay hundreds of dollars to then play inferior versions of muliplats on the Switch 2, and they're not switching to decently spec'd next gen PC's that are much more expensive and weaker than a PS6.

Sony's existing playerbase is large enough to keep their business strong and profitable for a long time, provided A) their consoles keep getting 95%+ of popular 3rd party games, B) they continue to make quality games and exclusives capable of selling 10 or 20 million+, C) they don't make greedy or stupid choices that turn people against them.

There will come a time where they'll need to sell you new hardware, but they don't have to worry about it yet. By the time the need arises, prices may have long since returned to normal. RAM/NAND issues are affecting all hardware, not just Sony's.

Nintendo is in the toughest situation of the three despite many on this site thinking otherwise. Catching up with the PS5 is nowhere near guaranteed like the thread title implies.

The Switch 2 may see price hikes to $600 - $700+ in the next couple of years. That will severely stall sales momentum just like it has for the PS5. Sony can hold out for the PS6 launch which in turn helps the PS5 leg it out for a bit more. After the news that Sony is stopping disc production after January 2028, I'm starting to believe the PS6 is going to release sometime after that.

Keep in mind that comparison has changed with the launch of the PS4. Sony had 125M+ MAU back in March with about 92M+ PS5's sold.

PlayStation Plus has significantly changed their business model and with it the longevity of their consoles.