I mean that's the downside of relying on third parties to carry your water for you, if they don't come through or if people decide they can get their third party fix on other platforms, then you're in trouble.

PC already ate a big chunk of the PS market for third party games on Japan, and now Switch 2 is looking like it'll get most of the big ones too and further eat away at the pie.

What's with the doom and gloom for PS5 suddenly? It's been selling around 10-15k all year. Even if they increase the price of the digital version it would still sell the same. People are now choosing the digital version because of the huge price difference. The pro and disc versions would sell more if they increase the price of the digital version

Not exactly a heavy hitter, but decent enough for a little boost.

Completely forgot about that Pokémon, but I must have missed the Splatoon raiders announcement because it's the first time I heard about it.

Switch 2 editions of games probably don't boost sales at all because the mainline version is already available, it's only a graphical upgrade after all.

This is also true. Playstation has been pretty stable the last 3 generations, this is nothing new or dire. PS3 sold 10m, PS4 9m but killed early, PS5 will sell 8.5m but is killed early by economic circumstances.  

If 3rd party games continue to be prioritised and preferred on PlayStation over Switch, the PS6 dual systems should comfortably repeat PS5s numbers and have a less turbulent lifespan.

The reason people are concerned about PS in Japan is they've been on a decline. As you said the PS4 sold less than the PS3. Japan is the only region where that has happened. Now the PS5 is looking like it will sell another million less than the PS4. The Switch 1 is still outselling the PS5 in Japan and that's worrying for the upcoming PS6.

3rd Party games (at least Japanese) seem like they're more so prioritizing Switch 2. Playstation had an advantage for PS4 and PS5 where the Switch couldn't get most AAA Japanese games, now with Switch 2 that's not the case. Playstation has lost it's advantage over Nintendo, so sales are gonna reflect that since you don't need a PS to play these games anymore. We've already seen Switch 2 games outsell the PS5 versions already, over the course of the year it's gonna get worse. Nintendo's market share in Japan vs PS is like 90%.

I would say this isn't true at all, getting out Switch 2 ports doesn't equate to prioritisation and when many PS5 versions outsell the Switch versions by x8 margins on the global market there's no reason yet to suspect big Japanese devs will prioritize Switch 2 versions. For example FFVII team said Switch 2 isn't changing their development/ambitions.

The S2 games that are outselling the PS5 versions are the same as the Switch 1 games that were achieving same feat, AAA titles like FF and Resident Evil aren't achieving that yet, fighting games like SF6 aren't, some games like Elden Ring are taking forever to port and there isn't yet any indication there will be any imminent end to PlayStation ownership of this core market.

With the decline of previous PS consoles I think you ignored the context I added, like the Ram/pricing situation for the PS5. PS4 being discontinued early. Now would there still decline without those factors? I think so, but nothing dramatic. This isn't Wii U/GameCube/N64/ Vita levels of decline.

I think Playstation dwindling down to it's core niche in Japan shouldn't be a concern and at this point it's a natural transition which is to be accepted. I'd imagine the main meaningful "concern" would be leveraged at the accessibility of the actual software from their partners like Square and Capcom. Now Switch 2 can decently handle ports and multiplatform dev is common, I think concerned about their games being stuck on a less popular platform in Japan are gone and the market should be healthier then ever.

If PS6 shrinks to 6m that's absolutely fine lol. I Suspect with the handheld option though it will be competitive than the PS5, I think pricing will be the determining factor.

The rest is up for developers to make games that entice the Japanese market because we're seeing from S2 performance of 3rd party titles that bring stuck on PS hardware was not really the issue with their sales... Alternatively, if they are happy with their global sales ( RE9 for example), then all is already well.

I feel like Playstation's long term sustainability in the Japanese market, albiet a low level versus the competition depends on them retaining that affordable entry point currently represented by the Japan-only Digital Edition.

So long as that's still a thing, they'll keep on trucking. If they decide to hike the price on that too and place all their hardware out of affordability, that's when they'll be in real danger.

Just to chime in: Playstation hasn't been stable in Japan, at all. They had huge success with the PSP and moderate success with the Vita. We shouldn't forget that. I know for some reason people like to ignore handheld sales, but in Japan Playstation has declined a lot in popularity over the past decade. The Vita sold over 5 million units in Japan, I think. So they will probably decline by 5-6 million in sales this generation. Which is probably the reason why there are so many rumors of a handheld or hybrid PS6 version. 

Yeah tbh I bet the only reason we're hearing of a possible portable variant is because of Japan I can see them pushing that variant in Japan and the other SKUs everywhere else even then the problems only begin as you still have to contend with Pokemon which releases next year in the rumoured release window and other beasts like AC.

Exactly.  Not factoring in handhelds when defining stability for Japan certainly won't give you accurate results.  Going from a home console userbase of 23m with the PS2 to 10.4m with the PS3 was offset by Sony adapting to the market with a handheld, resulting in a fantastic performance for Playstation during Gen 7.  Now in Gen 9, not only will the PS5 finish about a million behind the PS4 but there is no handheld at all to fall back on:

Gen 6 - 23m+ (PS2)

Gen 7 - 30m+ (PS3 + PSP)

Gen 8 - 15m+ (PS4 + PSV)

Gen 9 - 8.5m or so (PS5)

Sony absolutely needs a handheld or hybrid unit if it ever hopes to get back to that 15m+ userbase in Japan.