Based on the fact that the PS5 will already be at about 100m by November so will be fairly saturated sales wise by then. GTA 6 got announced a bit over two years ago so loads of the people who got a PS5 since then will be intending to play it on there. Some people will have gotten one in 2024 expecting to it to have been out last year after all. If GTA 6 had somehow come out back in say 2021 and there wasn't any stock issues I imagine it could've caused a few million boost to the month it released but the boost will of course be way smaller with it releasing so late in the lifespan.

Also the idea that the upcoming Tomodachi Life game is gonna cause a notable boost to Switch 1 sales is just cope from people latching on to any speck of hope left that could still make it reaching 160m somehow remain possible. It's gonna have a miniscule impact since the Switch is super old and any sales boost that does happen will almost entirely go to the Switch 2. Expecting GTA 6 to boost PS5 sales several million in November-December this year isn't as unreasonable as that idea but both are wrong in my view.

Valid points for sure.  And you could point to the GTA 5 release as evidence.  But I insist that you are conflating PS5 saturation with real unbridled demand.  There are still millions of people playing GTA5 on PS4.  Today.  You see, there are people who only play GTA that will not upgrade until GTA 6 comes out.  Likewise there are PC folks and just folks in general who will only be bothered with PlayStation at all for GTA 6 and nothing else. On top of all that there will be a boost from folks upgrading to Pro.  Again I think you make valid points and valuable observations.