Switch 2's main issues this year are the potentially mediocre lineup and the likely price increase.

From the actions and comments made by Sony and Nintendo, the implications are that Switch 2 will be getting a price hike and PS5 won't. Switch 2 should/may be able to beat PS5 (and Switch 2018) until October. But November-December may see PS5 and Switch 2018 dominate.

In Nov/Dec 2018, the Switch got Pokemon LGPE (the console's first Pokemon game) and Super Smash Bros Ultimate. Unless Pokopia continues to really overperform and Nintendo has at least one secret game comparable to the two I mentioned, Nov-Dec may be relatively poor for the Switch 2, especially in the event it gets a price hike.

We know that Sony already reacted ro Trump's tariffs by increasing price and reducing storage, whereas Nintendo didn't, and is instead out there suing the Annoying Orange 🍊.

People who voted for Switch 2 are in an echo chamber.

Few things here.  First I didnt realize there 2018 numbers were tied to their first Switch Pokémon.  With the new one being carried over to next year, 2027 may be the breakout year.  Also if Nintendo raises prices that would take the energy out of this whole thing... really hoping that doest happen.  Tariffs are really muting this whole thing.   Hope Nintendo wins the case.  But yeah if the price goes up its an auto win for PS5.   I expect PS5 to win but I was hoping for something more contentious.

Meh, not feeling it. I will stick with the idea that the upgrade phenomenom has been spreading out through the years, specially after the reveal trailer. Just because our bubble acknowledge that Sony is preventing another price spike this year, we cant guarantee that this information has reached the general public or even if did how many will put faith in their statement?

Yes we should take them at their word... remember they only said that console prices weren't going up... but they seem more than willing to raise other prices like subscription costs (which isn't exactly a win for consumers lets be real).  But the more than that, and because of that, the are much more likely to keep the price as low as they can. Just seems like the most optomal and profitable path.  

Regarding your upgrade phenomenom theory: how do you account for the literal mountian of active PS4s?  Obviously, it is true that people have been upgrading since the trailer but wouldn't demand a PS5 be based on a more than just two trailers? And what about the people who will simply be moved by the hype to purchase a console for the game?  It seems like you are just ignoring all the clear evidence.  Do you expect GTA 6 to have no impact on PS5 demand?

Again, I am not saying that we shouldn't, I am talking as the general audience perspective that wont put that energy to go search deep under the Sony statement.

They will have an impact on PS5 sales for sure. But i am thinking the impact will be something about maintaining last year numbers or a bit under, nothing above that

Okay got you.  You are trying to model how the general consumer will react with what information we can reasonably expect them to have.  I don't agree with your conclusion but I understand your reasoning.

While thoughtful and reasonable, I think you simply underestimate the actual signifigance of this release. I made a similar mistake when understanding Animal Crossing and its ability to move consoles.  I simply didn't realize how popular it was.  I think you are making a similar mistake... only magnified many many times.   

But enough about the general public.  Are you excited for GTA 6?  Do you plan on picking it up?  For myself, I will be picking it up for sure.  

And ofc assuming that Sony's message will even reach that significant part of the general audience.

For me, I loved GTA San Andreas back then and I finished GTA V despite not having the same effect.

My experience with the franchise wont make me deny that the trailer got my attention, but I am kinda torn to purchase right in the first year bc of the all the labor controversy during the development. So there is high chances that I will catch the game during a BF kind deal

Won't have any impact is a very strong statement I think nearly nobody takes. But for the question in the OP GTA needs to change the direction of sales development for a console at the end of it's lifecycly against one at the start of it's lifecycle. "will have some effect" is completely different from "will prevent the natural decline of sales".

This is you thinking very logically as a fairly dedicated gamer. Most people do not part with their money before they need to.

The reality is there are millions of extremely casual gamers who don't  even play 1 or 2 games a year, but only 1-2 games an entire generation. GTA is amongst the franchises likely to fall into this kind of ownership. Plenty of fans would have already got PS5s etc but when your console audience is 40m+ (software sales) it only takes 10% of that audience to fall into this extreme casual category to make huge differences to hardware sales