If PS6 launches November 2028 I think it would be guaranteed. PS5 on the whole is selling pretty similarly to PS4 and that would give it an entire extra year before replacement. Tariffs are a factor for sure. But GTA is coming out in May 2026 and will likely sell millions more PS5 units in 2026 than would have happened otherwise.
November 2027 launch for PS6 makes it murkier. I suppose if Sony can get the price down or leveled out for PS5 and PS6 is a premium product nearing $800 and up then PS5 would still have customer demand. I think PS4 only sold about 2 million units after PS5 launched due to a scaled back production.

The days of price cuts are over sadly.

Between inflation, tariffs, and just companies realizing that people will still buy their stuff at higher prices, we'll be lucky if PS5 doesn't get another price hike by the end of its run.

Whatever the reason, that will be the reason why PS5 doesn't outsell it. Too expensive.

The PS5 just being another 100mil PS console will enough for me. With what the PS5 had to go through(Covid and Trump) hitting 100mil is like 130mill in this case.

Most probably not, it's already losing steam fast behind the PS4 launch-aligned, but it still has 2 Trump cards: GTA6 and COVID stopping the production of the PS4 dead in it's tracks. So while by the launch of their respective successors PS5 will be below the PS4, it may have a chance due to longer tail.

Let's go, Sony's forecast for the fiscal year is 15 million consoles. If GTA 6 is not delayed and launches in May next year, the next fiscal year should reach 20 million due to GTA 6, which would equate to about 113 million consoles by March 2027. After that, only 5 million consoles would be needed until the end of its life. Yes, it is possible.

I'm thinking it's most likely a "no", but Playstation may end up benefitting from the total implosion of XBox.

GTA6 might give the PS5 a huge and long lasting system selling effect. Especially if A) it's mass bundled, B) PC version not released simultaneously, and C) the console gets an official global pricecut a year before PS6 is out.

PS5 has the advantage for many reasons. But if PS6 really is launching in 2027, and like the PS4, PS5 sees a "production cliff", then it may fall short. Voted "probably yes".

Of course it will. Simply because of GTA. No other factors are even required. There is some doubt because of prices.
I posit that if PS5 gets a price cut next year its chances of reaching 130 m are much higher. The floor right now is still about 120 m which would put it just over the PS5.
Right now my range is 120 to 135 million. If they release a portable PS5 it probably will hit 150 m in aggregate.

Even as I always assumed it would be doing similar numbers but a bit more (130M to 120M), Sony sure is trying hard to make it not happen with the constant price increases.

It already is going to lose some 2M sales compared to the PS4 in Japan. Probably going to sell less in Europe as well, already 5M less by now, so it would have to sell 17M more on NA and RoW to make up for it and outsell it by 10M, which is not looking very likely right now. But I do think some post 2027 sales will actually make it reach the 10M above PS4 mark I predicted.

I think the PS5 will have an extra year or half year by being replaced just in 2028, and I also think it'll have better legs than the PS4 specially if the rumored portable can make it revelant to keep around in production. So it's still a possibility.