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Forums - Sales - Predict the lifetimes sales of Pokémon Legends Z-A

 

How much do you think it will sell lifetime?

Over 20 million 10 20.83%
 
17.5 - 20 million 8 16.67%
 
15 - 17.5 million 12 25.00%
 
12.5 - 15 million 8 16.67%
 
10 - 12.5 million 8 16.67%
 
Under 10 million 2 4.17%
 
Total:48
curl-6 said:

The Pokémon Company confirms 5.8 million copies sold in its first week:

https://nintendoeverything.com/pokemon-legends-z-a-sells-5-8-million-copies-worldwide-in-first-week/

This is only ~10% down compared to Arceus

Japan sales must be 10% up (digital included)

Europe around 30% down

ROW and Americas are also probably down, but by 10% or less (ROW could even be flat, given how asian markets outside Japan are still growing in console space)



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That's disappointing it sold well. Guess game freak will never have to try and do better with the series. It's. Shame they don't take advantage of the switch 2 hardware



Phenomajp13 said:
Otter said:

That's why comparisons were made to past european sales. I also wouldn't even call Europe an outlier. Nintendo is not as dominant in US as they are in Japan, and games like Kirby are not in the top 3 selling games of the year. So each market has their own characteristics. 

Europe is the outlier because it will likely be the only region 40% down. Japan and US are likely to carry this game as they usually do for Pokemon. Dominance is irrelevant because again ZA is unlikely to be as down in Nintendo's top two regions unlike the outlier in Europe. Nintendo can't dominate the US like in Japan because it's a much smaller region and PS is a failure; however, you know what the US and Japan have in common unlike Europe? The US and Japan both have Nintendo platforms dominate the highest sellers in history in the regions. Nintendo has 4 of the 6 highest selling platforms in US history (DS, Switch, Wii, and GBA). Switch 2 will also easily bypass ever PS home console in history besides PS2 making it 5 of the top 7 lol. The point is, Nintendo is the biggest brand in the US and Japan. The outlier is Europe not Japan.

Again, all regions will have a different percentage fall/increase which technically makes them all an outlier according to your logic. If Japan is the only place where Nintendo has such domination it is also an "outlier", doesn't matter what your reason is for it having such high marketshare. That is a feature unique only to the Japanese market. 

I'm saying this because singling out Europe as an "outlier" makes it seem like the data should be dismissed, whereas it can actually be used to gauge global performance.

Seemingly Japan may be the only region where there was actual growth...

As with the recent thread with Yotei Vs Mario, you can extrapolate on global trends by using the European data. When Yotei outsold Mario 5:1 in the UK it painted a clear picture that Yotei would be out performing it globally even if in the US it was closer and Japan even closer still (2:1).

Here I never suspected a global 40% decline but a decline of 40% in physical sales in the UK also suggests a decline in the US (by a smaller %). So again, the UK/European market is weaker for Nintendo but pattern declines/growth there normally reflect the wider market if large enough. It is probably closer to the US than the US is to Japan.

Last edited by Otter - on 24 October 2025

Considering the install base I was expecting Z-A to outsell Arceus first week. It looks like Z-A might sell less than Arceus lifetime



Pinkie_pie said:

Considering the install base I was expecting Z-A to outsell Arceus first week. It looks like Z-A might sell less than Arceus lifetime

Unless some disastruous WOM happens, it will sell more. It's bundled, which will help pushing units during November and December



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Game has a 4.7 user rating on Metacritic and everybody still seems to be purchasing it full price. I really don't understand.

Well, I'm not a Nintendo user, so I don't actually mind it. But I would highly recommend the fans to stop purchasing those things or nothing will change...



Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

Game has a 4.7 user rating on Metacritic and everybody still seems to be purchasing it full price. I really don't understand.

Well, I'm not a Nintendo user, so I don't actually mind it. But I would highly recommend the fans to stop purchasing those things or nothing will change...

Pokemon playbase are not gamers, they are Pokemon fans. Think of the people who only go to cinema once a year to watch Taylor Swift concert movie. This is the average Pokemon player. The games are just part of the experience, they IP itself is the hobbie. They collect cards, watch the anime, go to cinema to see the movies and, when they feel it, they also play the games

In 2024 the IP registered a revenue of 12 billion, with no new videogame since November 2022. Indeed they made more money in 2024 without a game than in 2022 with 2 games

You cannot reason about quality, because they don't play for quality, they play because its part of the Pokemon experience



Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

Game has a 4.7 user rating on Metacritic and everybody still seems to be purchasing it full price. I really don't understand.

Well, I'm not a Nintendo user, so I don't actually mind it. But I would highly recommend the fans to stop purchasing those things or nothing will change...

Have you ever played a game you would seriously rate a 0?  I know I haven't, the worst game I've ever played I'd probably rate around a 4 or 5. it's pretty sad people decide to go on metacritic and review bomb a game they didn't even play.  I'm sure there are plenty of things wrong with the game, but not a 0 bad.  Critics rated it a 7.9 which I'm sure is high, but it probably really falls somewhere in between a 4.7 and 7.9



Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

Game has a 4.7 user rating on Metacritic and everybody still seems to be purchasing it full price. I really don't understand.

Well, I'm not a Nintendo user, so I don't actually mind it. But I would highly recommend the fans to stop purchasing those things or nothing will change...

Beaten to, but user scores are pretty much useless as they are dominated by fanboys voting everything on their preferred platform a 10 and everything on the "enemy" brand a 0.



Alex_The_Hedgehog said:

Game has a 4.7 user rating on Metacritic and everybody still seems to be purchasing it full price. I really don't understand.

Well, I'm not a Nintendo user, so I don't actually mind it. But I would highly recommend the fans to stop purchasing those things or nothing will change...

From everything I’ve seen, the fans seem very pleased with this game, just as they were with ScVi and Legends Arceus. The only people complaining are the people looking in from the outside.

That said, 5.8mil in the first week. Another massive success for GF, and another game for people who crave the death of a franchise to wince at. I’m not a Pokémon fan myself, but I am principled: If the game is fun and pleases its fanbase, then that’s a big win in my eyes. It doesn’t have to be the prettiest game, just so long as it’s fun then that’s more than enough. Nobody here seems to stand for anything, just whatever the hate mob targets.