I think this is because this is the very first time in Japan a Trails game launches on Switch and PS at the same time. In Japan if you're a Trails fan you most likely have a PS system to play the newest entries day one. Now since this didn't a have a PS4 version (and future games most likely won't) those users most likely have a Switch and just bought it there to make it an even 50/50 split. YS X wasn't an even split, it was more PS favored for the same reason as I stated that it was the first time YS launched on Switch and PS at the same time, but this had a PS4 version unlike Trails in the Sky which helped PS sell more over Switch.

I think when Trails in the Sky 2 and 3 come out sales will be more Switch favored than PS.

I know people always look at install base, but not everyone will be interested in the same games and considering most Trails fans in Japan are on PS it shouldn't be a surprise if a franchise that was built up for a long time on a platform sells more than others despite having a lower install base. Instead this is an opportunity to expand the fanbase. Specifically with Trails in the Sky I think it should have also released on Xbox since it is the start of the saga and the Sky games seem to be the fan favorites.

Bananza showing promising legs.
And yeah looks like 40-45k is the allotment for Japan per week at this stage; if Nintendo follow their usual pattern of stockpiling for major releases it should go down a bit in early October, then spike when Pokémon hits.

This is a return to normalcy sort of week with the Switch 1 coming down again after going over 20k for a couple weeks for some reason and the PS5 back under 10k. Things aren't exciting currently but week 42 till the end of the year will be with it starting with seeing how much of a boost the Switch 2 gets from Legends Z-A and then seeing how it does during its first holiday season.

It should be at 36.4-5m by the end of this year so it is indeed possible and will mostly come down to how drastic the decline is next year since it won't exactly be selling much 2027 onward. The 3DS declined by just under 70% in 2018 so a similar decline in 2026 would leave it quite close to 37m by the end of that year which should be enough as long as the decline isn't bigger than that. Also it really is wild that it hit another million milestone considering how far ahead of the previous record holder it is now.

Top 30: https://nintendoeverything.com/famitsu-software-sales-9-15-25-9-21-25-top-30/

1. [NS2] Mario Kart World – 33,861 / 1,766,296
2. [PS5] Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter – 21,511 / NEW
3. [NSW] Trails in the Sky 1st Chapter – 21,453 / NEW
4. [NS2] Donkey Kong Bananza – 11,300 / 318,441
5. [NSW] Castlevania Dominus Collection – 9,503 / NEW
6. [NSW] Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Hinokami Chronicles 2 – 7,170 / 123,697
7. [NSW] Story of Seasons: Grand Bazaar – 6,059 / 74,697
8. [NSW] Minecraft – 5,762 / 4,007,619
9. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe – 5,203 / 6,445,312
10. [NSW] The Quintessential Princesses: Fantasy, the Abyss, and the Magic Academy – 5,077 / NEW
11. [NSW] Towa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree – 4,463 / NEW
12. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons – 4,318 / 8,221,321
13. [PS5] Sengoku Dynasty – 4,218 / NEW
14. [NSW] Monkarufanta: The Hero and the Crystal Girl – 4,010 / NEW
15. [NSW] Super Mario Party Jamboree – 3,245 / 1,390,441
16. [NSW] Everybody’s Golf Hot Shots – 3,191 / 44,260
17. [NS2] Kirby and the Forgotten Land – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Star-Crossed World – 2,941 / 22,943
18. [NSW] Pokemon Scarlet / Violet – 2,899 / 5,611,877
19. [PS5] Borderlands 4 – 2,817 / 15,8467
20. [NS2] Super Mario Party Jamboree – Nintendo Switch 2 Edition + Jamboree TV – 2,617 / 64,366
21. [NS2] Story of Seasons: Grand Bazaar Nintendo Switch 2 Edition – 2,610 / 29,208
22. [NSW] Nintendo Switch Sports – 2,515 / 1,647,873
23. [PS5] Castlevania Dominus Collection – 2,352 / NEW
24. [PS5] Metal Gear Solid Delta: Snake Eater – 2,309 / 80,507
25. [PS5] owa and the Guardians of the Sacred Tree – 2,099 / NEW
26. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate – 2,063 / 5,799,662
27. [NSW] The Exit 8 / Platform 8 – 2,045 / 60,431
28. [NSW] Tamagotchi Plaza – 2,007 / 185,000
29. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure – 1,998 / 3,744,618
30. [NSW] Marisa of Liartop Mountain – 1,945 / NEW

NS - 19
PS5 - 6
NS 2 - 5

I would expect Switch 2 sales to pick up greatly during the launch week of Legends Z-A and then keep the momentum all through December, with regular 100k+ weekly sales in the coming months.

If Switch 2 can finish 2025 at 4M+ sales in Japan, it puts third party games like RE9 in a good position to do good numbers at launch for the Switch 2.

Japan needs more Switch 2 stock!!!!!!!

Correct, in the past Nintendo consoles either didn't get such IPs at all or were limited to spin-off games and late ports.

But as far as installed base is concerned, it doesn't matter at all when we are talking about games that sell such low numbers. There's no artificial cap on the sales potential of such games, so it really isn't impressive. After all, it's an attach rate of only 0.3% on the PS5.

All that Trails in the Sky shows is what we've seen repeatedly in the past: That it takes time for a once PS-exclusive IP to attain a majority share on a Nintendo console.

Any big relases in the coming weeks in Japan?

Damn I miss the COMG! thread, always knew back then what's coming...

Pac-Man World Re-Pac 2 is counted towards next week, otherwise there isn't that much I think until Pokémon ZA comes out really. 

Silent Hill F, Ghost of Yotei and Final Fantasy Tactics will do some solid numbers at least. Ghost of Yotei will likely open to around 100-150k or so in Japan. But yeah for a massive launch we will have to wait until Z-A.