The PS6 Portable essentially cuts the next-generation off at the knees before it even starts, you're locked into sub-PS5 performance for the next generation already.

The PS5 is going to as a result be getting new game for probably another like 10 years.

Nintendo will retaliate with a Switch 2 Pro that matches whatever Sony releases, they're not going to let Sony just walk onto their turf and take a chunk of marketshare away from the only console they have. So what I think is actually going to happen is the "normal PS6" is actually in some ways going to become like a secondary platform.

It will just be there to run the PS6 Portable games (which are sub PS5 in spec) at higher settings and that's essentially it, but the PS6 Portable is actually going to be the machine that all devs have to make sure a game runs on (which they can port to Switch 2/Switch 2 Pro). 

Console generations as they existed in the past as such are essentially over with as a result. Developers cannot have another doubling of budgets happening anyway ... it's not workable for the industry, I think even Sony knows this now. There's no where to realistically go significantly past a PS5/PS5 Pro. They've already hit a dead end. 

Well, pretty much that's in line with UDNA rumours and when you look what was historically available in GPU market 2-3 years before launch of of last two PS consoles - so I'm expecting about 3x raster, 5x RT, and 8-10x PT versus PS5.

Your 4090 will be just fine for quite some time, as such cards always are, though I think both AMD's UDNA and nVidia's Robin will bring a lot of new stuff that current architectures might struggle with.

And if that rumour about AMD CU's now having 128 shaders per CU...oh boy, fun times ahead at every segment of GPU market, including high end.

Huh? PS2 wasn't that far away from Gamecube and better than the Dreamcast? Would be a different story though if PSP had launched alongside PS2 and Sony said the games must work on both platforms. I think that situation is more comparable to this discussion. 

Well this is essentially the basis of a Portable PS6... At this point its clear developers do not really need more power to make the game experiences they're interested in making. They need more time with the tools, more efficient strategies, engines and quicker development cycles. PS6 in both portable and home console mode can offer this and support scalability across all "next-gen" features. Something that will still distinguish the portable from PS5, just as the ability to AI upscale, support RT etc distinguishes Switch 2 from PS4/4 Pro. 

Having said this I think much of this still needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. Remember all the Switch Pro rumours? I fully suspect they were accurate for the time but it's also a reality that the platform holders are always exploring and free change route at any point. This may be a PS5 Portable with some unique PS6 features. PS6 may not come out for a while yet... It'll be interesting to see how the value proposition of PS5 Pro changes once FSR4 lands on it next year. 

For now the PS5 and Switch 2 remain in different pools. You're not going to see day and date for most 3rd party titles and the majority of Playstation audience are not keen to sacrifice to a Switch 2 level of performance and graphical quality in most titles. A Switch 2 Pro won't fix this because it won't be a stand alone platform, so developers won't put in the effort. It'll be Switch 2 versions of games running at higher resolutions/FPS and come with an OLED screen. Nintendo themselves are also not going to go above the $499 price tag.

I think if anything the whole "Nintendo will do XYZ cuz that's what happened X years ago" is irrelevant. Nintendo will do whatever suits them in the moment and Nintendo is run today by a completely different, much younger president who grew up in the 1990s. I think they are well aware last time Sony marched into console territory in 1995/96, Nintendo just bent over and let them take the market over essentially by giving them all their 3rd party support. 

The Playstation didn't arise from nowhere or organically ... they basically stole the market Nintendo had built with the Famicom (NES) and Super Famicom (SNES) and used the same exact 3rd parties that Nintendo had popularized on their hardware platforms (Squaresoft, Capcom, Konami, etc.). 

I don't think they will allow that mistake to repeat. So if this "PS5/6 Portable" is a credible competitor, they are going to go head on and match it so that developers will essentially be forced into making anything that is for PS5/6 Portable is also made for the Switch 2 ecosystem, day 1 too. It's not terribly difficult to take the existing Switch 2 which already runs PS5 tier games reasonably well and ramp that up to match whatever Sony is making. Nvidia is easily capable of matching/exceeding anything AMD does. For another thing Nintendo doesn't even have the luxury of not doing anything, hybrid market is the only market they have left, they can't rely on like the Game Boy as they did once the N64/GameCube saw massive declines. They have no choice but to defend their market space. 

And Nintendo was always going to make a $500+ model, the base Switch 2 is $499.99 w/Mario Kart (that's the one most people buy) ... you thought things like the inevitable OLED revision wasn't going to cost more than that? HAH. We were always going to $550-$600+ for one of the Switch 2 models. 

So that's what I think will happen the PS5/6 Portable + Switch 2 Pro basically get all the games in that scenario, the giant brick "traditional" PS6 that can't be moved around the house I think will simply just run those games with better effects/resolution, but in a way its going to more of a companion hardware than the other way around. Games will be made essentially for these sub-PS5 (in raw performance) mobile devices from Sony and Nintendo (PS5/6 Portable + Switch 2 Pro + Switch 2 regular) and then they will just be scaled up on the regular Playstation 6. I think a PS6 Pro is not happening, the PS5 Pro is not performing well, Sony is going the other way in performance. And then Microsoft basically just goes off and focuses on becoming the no.1 software publisher and makes basically gaming PCs in a box that are sold at a premium price ($800++) that let you install the XBox installer from them or use Steam. 

The PS6 portable will just be a portable PS5 though. If Nintendo doesn't react to PS5 with equal power console in 2020 why would they react to an equal power handheld in 2027? They will have completely different business models. Switch 2 has the standard console sales model where you have to sell 10's of millions to convince devs to support platform, whereas the PS6P will just take advantage of the support the PS5 already gets. It's just a PS5 really, and Nintendo can't compete with that with the Switch 2 because PS5 is so far ahead now

That's the thing though that people aren't getting ... a PS6 Portable model IS the PS6 then. Doesn't matter if its hardware spec is below even the PS5.

That's the baseline that all developers will make games on. And if those games run better than the Switch 2, then it is a direct threat to Nintendo's hybrid market share. So they basically have no choice but to respond in kind with a Pro (or whatever they want to call it) model at some point. I don't think they can just sit there and let Sony have free reign with portable device that has all 3rd party games day 1, you're just recreating a similar situation to the PS1 to N64 then. 

Where does that leave the "normal PS6" then? It will just run those PS6 Portable games (with PS5 tier graphics) and shiny them up a bit with better resolution and effects and that's all. 

I think people have it backwards thinking the portable/hybrid PS6 is just the secondary/companion console ... it will end up being the opposite. The hybrid form factor when offered to consumers is very popular and second to that, no developer is going to want to not get sales from that console, so by default it basically becomes the platform they actually have to target for, because it's easy to then just take that version of the game and ramp it up for the regular PS6. 

All that is to say ... we could be seeing PS5 games (as in the current PS5 home console) then as a result for like another decade, lol. 

Sony going hybrid and Microsoft effectively going out of the market in a lot of ways is going to radically change the console landscape I think, more than people might be prepared for even. 

Tbh, seeing what a base PS5 is still capable of with something like Death Stranding 2 on a graphics, physics, and framerate side of things, it goes to show that there isn't much need to have a "generational" leap as before because, even base consoles clearly have untapped potential. One of the reasons why it feels like this generation never truly took off.

It seems like more traditional premium consoles will become more like PC hardware going forward to where it's more iterative alongside convenience (having a home console with a handheld alongside) than generational. Because honestly, how much further can hardware truly go?

PS6 home console will remain the go-to console for AAA games and completely dominate the handheld variant.

PS6 handheld is a non-threat to Switch 2 whatsoever. It's more like the console equivalent of SteamDeck, which is a tiny fraction of the PC market and got outsold by the Switch 2 in like two weeks lol. It's insane how much you're overestimating the PS6 handheld. At best, it will be able to dominate PC handhelds individually, but it won't cause even the slightest damage to the Switch 2. Nintendo's got nothing to worry about.

Nvidia won't match AMD's future tech for the price. The PS6 handheld will launch within 3 years and be over 4 times more powerful than Switch 2. But it won't matter at all. People buy Switch 2 primarily for Nintendo's software which cannot be played anywhere else. Playstation's content are available on many options. Sony's handhelds will still be more technically impressive for the price than anything Nintendo makes, but it won't be as bad as Vita vs 3DS or PSP vs DS. Switch 1 marked Nintendo's return to making solid hardware, and diminishing returns naturally favor the weaker hardware. PS6 handheld is literally a non-factor against Nintendo.

My premature PS6 sales prediction:

Home console: 65-75 million.

Handheld: 15-20 million.

Combined 80-95 million.

Yeah, your right with almost everything I think, apart from Nintendo responding. The Switch 2 already costs 450$ with a PS4 level CPU and has a poor battery life. a new model to compete with PS6P would require a Switch 3, not a Switch 2 Pro. Switch 2 has an ARM CPU clocked at 1.0GHZ which is even with PS4 CPU. It's not possible to beef up a PS4 level CPU to compete with PS6P and have a reasonable battery life and cost. Would require an entirely new switch with a new design and different CPU.