It's unlikely things will be drastically better in 2028; even if the Iran War and the memory crunch are over by then, and neither is certain, inflation won't be reversed; $500 in 2020 is nearly $650 today, and that number will be even higher by 2028.

Maybe, maybe not. Who saw the pandemic coming, or 2 weeks becoming 2 years, or the quick retreat from the new normal back to the old normal?

PS6 Lite would not be anything close to what PS5 was at launch in terms of performance.

$399 late 2013 is about $575 today. That was mid tier hardware. PS6 Lite would be low tier hardware (with mid-high tier software tech).

$499 seems quite doable without a loss. $399 would likely require around a $100 loss per unit at launch.

If you're expecting inflation to stop or a $399 PS6 you're in for a very rude awakening.

It feels like you've mind your mind up on this, so at this point there's really nothing left to say except wait and see.

Possibly, but if you're expecting PS6 to be $700+, then we're in for another PS3rd console curse, part deux.

So which scenario is worse, or does SNY just hold off until 2029/2030 and redesign all the hardware?

If Sony is going to try and heavily push one device and willing to take some serious damage to their finances on it, it makes much more sense for it to be the hybrid imo

1. Way more likely to attract new consumers, including gen Z & younger who are more laptop and mobile orientated.

2. It will actually increase engagement per user (more ways/opportunity to play) and will actually encourage "double dipping" in a portion of those who don't care yet for PS6 graphical prowess.

3. Its worth us remember there was a $400 digital PS5 and there have been deals even just this holiday for less. We shouldn't see a $400 price tag as something that will magically convert PS4 users who haven't been interested this whole gen. Many are not returning and they shouldn't really be the focus when Sony has an actual active and engaged userbase who they want to move into their next gen ecosystem

First of all, I'd wait until 2028 to release it. It's enough time for the whole RAM crisis to ease up and by that time the orange demon will be on his way out as well, which probably means less wars, tariffs crisis in general.

This first point I agree with. If SNY won't do both a handheld and lite, then heavily subsidizing the handheld is the better move.

I personally just don't see why they couldn't or wouldn't do both. In terms of manufacturing it wouldn't be all that much more work to do a lite console, or would take very lil extra to do a lite 'console' that consists of just the handheld main body (with no control 'joycons' on the sides, screen, or battery) plus the dock and AC wall adapter. It would also be next to no extra work for devs if both are the exact same internal hardware.

1. Most gamers here on VGC seem to play docked vs mobile. Though AI search shows 50% of SW1 users play 50 go/50 tv. 30% only mobile/tabletop. 20% only tv.

Now this would make it seem like handheld is clearly the big winner, but what about if you're playing tabletop mode at home, or laying in bed or on the couch? Are those really mobile gaming?

SW1 does allow you to undock and play anywhere, so if you needed to give up a tv then sure that's a bonus, but how many SNY gamers will do that? It makes sense for Nin gamers since SW1 is purposely combining the couch and mobile gamer into one ecosystem, but there are far far less mobile gamers in the SNY crowd.

SNY would either need to heavily subsidize the hardware as you mention, to compete more directly with SW2 on price, or they're going to need another PS4 type gen when it comes to constant exclusive bangers, to compete with SW2. SNY might even need both to draw enough new people in.

2. It will allow for some double dipping, yes, but how much is some? SNY gamers tend to be more about graphical power, as well as couch gaming, so how many existing PS5/Pro owners are going to also grab a PS6 Handheld?

3. We remember that PS5 suffered considerable supply shortages, with mass scalping attributing to that. You couldn't get one for years (at retail price) even if you tried your damnedest. We also know that PS4/Pro came with a disc drive, where as PS5 Digital didn't, and there was no disc drive accessory attachment for it either.

Existing PS4 owners not simply going along with how PS5 has played out this gen, and being shunned from PS6, wouldn't be much different than what Don Mattrick pulled when it came to XB1 and his, 'get on board or get left behind' messaging. We all remember how that played out for the XB brand.

Personally I'm not against the handheld existing at all. If SNY see's it being worth the investment, then that's great for gamers. I just think SNY should also have a lite model, even if it's quite similar to the handheld, minus the price and mobility.