So basically they're forecasting is more on the conservative side than expected after all the analysts and articles told us Nintendo were ready to break records on the first Switch 2 full fiscal year ...

Anywoo, I was interested to see if Xenoblade Chronicles X DE could manage the 1M mark on launch quarter but apparently being so late in the console's lifetime is gonna doom it again as the worst selling of the series on the current console.
Gosh we won't even have a chance to see if it surpasses the million mark due to them not counting titles that haven't sold a million in the current fiscal year ....

Mario & Luigi Brothership has outsold Partners in Time and is closing in on the sales of Superstar Saga. (2.15m)
It could potentially end up the 2nd highest selling game in the series.

ShadowLink93 said: Super Mario Party Jamboree was the best selling game of Q4 Nintendo's earnings release for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31st 2025 has been published, this covers the three month period from January 1st to March 31st 2025. Nintendo shipped 1.26 million units of Switch hardware and 31.43 million units of Switch software bringing lifetime totals to 152.12 million for hardware and 1391.23 million for software. Year over year quarter 4 hardware sales are 0.70 million down from 1.96 million and software sales are 4.29 million down from 35.72 million. Two titles sold over one million units this quarter, these were Super Mario Party Jamboree (1.31 million) and the new release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD (1.27 million). Unfortunately the other New Release Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition failed to ship one million units. For the Nintendo Switch platform, Nintendo are forecasting 4.5 million units of hardware and 105 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. For the Nintendo Switch 2 platform, Nintendo are forecasting 15 million units of hardware and 45 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. Hardware Switch Hardware Q4: 1.26m Regional Split Q4: Japan 380k, Americas 490k, Europe 200k, Other 190k Model Variants Q4: Standard 260k, Lite 210k, Oled 790k Switch Hardware Total: 152.12m Regional Split Total: Japan 37.20m, Americas 58.31m, Europe 39.20m, Other 17.41m Model Variants Total: Standard 96.44m, Lite 25.48m, Oled 30.20m Global Shipment History (millions) Software Switch Software Q4: 31.43m Regional Split Q4: Japan 6.32m, Americas 13.97m, Europe 8.83m, Other 2.32m Tie Ratio Q4: 24.94 Switch Software Total: 1391.23m Regional Split Total: Japan 273.12m, Americas 605.03m, Europe 404.72m, Other 108.35m Tie Ratio Total: 9.15 Global Shipment History (millions) Software Top 10 Total sales followed by the previous total then sales added to the total in Q4 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 68.20m (67.35m) + 850k Animal Crossing New Horizons: 47.82m (47.44m) + 380k Super Smash Bros Ultimate: 36.24m (35.88m) + 360k Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild: 32.81m (32.62m) + 190k Super Mario Odyssey: 29.28m (29.04m) + 240k Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 26.79m (26.38m) + 410k Pokémon Sword/Shield: 26.72m (26.60m) + 120k Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom: 21.73m (21.55m) + 180k Super Mario Party: 21.16m (21.10m) + 60k New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe: 18.25m (18.06m) + 190k New Release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD 1.27m New! Others Nintendo Switch Sports: 16.27m (15.74m) + 530k Super Mario Bro's Wonder: 16.03m (15.51m) + 520k Mario Party Superstars: 14.00m (12.89m) + 1.11m Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 Super Mario Party Jamboree: 7.48m (6.17m) + 1.31m Legend of Zelda - Echoes of Wisdom: 4.09m (3.91m) + 180k Paper Mario TTYD: 2.10m (2.06m) +40K Mario & Luigi Brothership: 1.97m (1.84m) +130k Luigi's Mansion 2 HD: 1.88m (1.80m) + 80k Million Sellers not updated this quarter (1st party published) Ring Fit Adventure: 15.38m Pokémon Let's Go: 15.07m Pokémon BD/SP: 15.06m Pokemon Legends Arceus: 15.00m Luigi's Mansion 3: 14.25m Splatoon 2: 13.60m Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury: 13.47m Splatoon 3: 11.96m Super Mario 3D All-Stars: 9.07m Super Mario Maker 2: 8.42m Kirby and the Forgotten Land: 7.52m Legend of Zelda Link's Awakening: 6.63m Clubhouse Games: 4.64m Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze: 4.62m Mario Tennis Aces: 4.50m Kirby Star Allies: 4.38m Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword HD: 4.15m Fire Emblem Three Houses: 4.12m Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity: 4.00m 1-2 Switch: 3.74m Pikmin 4: 3.48m Paper Mario Origami King: 3.47m Yoshi's Crafted World: 3.35m Super Mario RPG: 3.31m Metroid Dread: 3.07m New Pokémon Snap!: 2.74m Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 2.74m Arms: 2.72m Mario Strikers Battle League: 2.63m Mario Golf Super Rush: 2.48m Pikmin 3 Deluxe: 2.40m Captain Toad Treasure Tracker: 2.35m Octopath Traveller: 2.08m Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 2.00m Pokémon Mystery Dungeon DX: 1.99m Big Brain Academy Brain vs Brain: 1.94m Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition: 1.91m Xenoblade Chronicles 3: 1.91m Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe: 1.82m Miitopia: 1.79m Mario Kart Live Home Circuit: 1.73m Fire Emblem Engage: 1.68m Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.60m Pokkén Tournament DX: 1.54m Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01 Variety Kit: 1.42m Metroid Prime Remastered: 1.36m Wario Ware Get it Together!: 1.34m Astral Chain: 1.33m Dr Kawashima's Brain training: 1.27m Bayonetta: 1.24m Bayonetta 2: 1.23m Princess Peach Showtime! 1.22m Game Builder Garage: 1.15m Mario Versus Donkey Kong: 1.12m Bayonetta 3: 1.09m Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes: 1.00m Nintendo Switch hardware shipments compared to some other platforms (millions of units)

645.17M software units of Nintendo published software shipped based on the numbers in this post. That's 46% of total software shipments. The Nintendo games not included likely sold under 1 million each but would still pad the total slightly.

Nintendo is still a fully Japanese gaming company, unlike Sony which moved the PS division to the US. That could mean that Nintendo still puts a lot of focus on the Japanese domestic market. And it doesn't really matter if Switch 2 would sell better than the PS5 at 75K Yen price in Japan, because that price would still lead to a huge decline in sales from the Switch generation to the Switch 2 generation. Nintendo is not interested in just selling more than the PS5 in Japan, their goal is to have as high Switch 2 sales as possible in Japan, and a 75K yen price would probably lead to a 50-60% decline in sales in Japan for Nintendo.

Japan is also where portable gaming is strongest out of any region by far.

ShadowLink93 said: Super Mario Party Jamboree was the best selling game of Q4 Nintendo's earnings release for the 4th quarter of the fiscal year ending March 31st 2025 has been published, this covers the three month period from January 1st to March 31st 2025. Nintendo shipped 1.26 million units of Switch hardware and 31.43 million units of Switch software bringing lifetime totals to 152.12 million for hardware and 1391.23 million for software. Year over year quarter 4 hardware sales are 0.70 million down from 1.96 million and software sales are 4.29 million down from 35.72 million. Two titles sold over one million units this quarter, these were Super Mario Party Jamboree (1.31 million) and the new release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD (1.27 million). Unfortunately the other New Release Xenoblade Chronicles X Definitive Edition failed to ship one million units. For the Nintendo Switch platform, Nintendo are forecasting 4.5 million units of hardware and 105 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. For the Nintendo Switch 2 platform, Nintendo are forecasting 15 million units of hardware and 45 million units of software for the fiscal year ending March 31st, 2026. Hardware Switch Hardware Q4: 1.26m Regional Split Q4: Japan 380k, Americas 490k, Europe 200k, Other 190k Model Variants Q4: Standard 260k, Lite 210k, Oled 790k Switch Hardware Total: 152.12m Regional Split Total: Japan 37.20m, Americas 58.31m, Europe 39.20m, Other 17.41m Model Variants Total: Standard 96.44m, Lite 25.48m, Oled 30.20m Global Shipment History (millions) Software Switch Software Q4: 31.43m Regional Split Q4: Japan 6.32m, Americas 13.97m, Europe 8.83m, Other 2.32m Tie Ratio Q4: 24.94 Switch Software Total: 1391.23m Regional Split Total: Japan 273.12m, Americas 605.03m, Europe 404.72m, Other 108.35m Tie Ratio Total: 9.15 Global Shipment History (millions) Software Top 10 Total sales followed by the previous total then sales added to the total in Q4 Mario Kart 8 Deluxe: 68.20m (67.35m) + 850k Animal Crossing New Horizons: 47.82m (47.44m) + 380k Super Smash Bros Ultimate: 36.24m (35.88m) + 360k Legend of Zelda Breath of the Wild: 32.81m (32.62m) + 190k Super Mario Odyssey: 29.28m (29.04m) + 240k Pokémon Scarlet/Violet: 26.79m (26.38m) + 410k Pokémon Sword/Shield: 26.72m (26.60m) + 120k Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom: 21.73m (21.55m) + 180k Super Mario Party: 21.16m (21.10m) + 60k New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe: 18.25m (18.06m) + 190k New Release Donkey Kong Country Returns HD: 1.27m New! Others Nintendo Switch Sports: 16.27m (15.74m) + 530k Super Mario Bro's Wonder: 16.03m (15.51m) + 520k Mario Party Superstars: 14.00m (12.89m) + 1.11m Q1+Q2+Q3+Q4 Super Mario Party Jamboree: 7.48m (6.17m) + 1.31m Legend of Zelda - Echoes of Wisdom: 4.09m (3.91m) + 180k Paper Mario TTYD: 2.10m (2.06m) +40K Mario & Luigi Brothership: 1.97m (1.84m) +130k Luigi's Mansion 2 HD: 1.88m (1.80m) + 80k Million Sellers not updated this quarter (1st party published) Ring Fit Adventure: 15.38m Pokémon Let's Go: 15.07m Pokémon BD/SP: 15.06m Pokemon Legends Arceus: 15.00m Luigi's Mansion 3: 14.25m Splatoon 2: 13.60m Super Mario 3D World + Bowser's Fury: 13.47m Splatoon 3: 11.96m Super Mario 3D All-Stars: 9.07m Super Mario Maker 2: 8.42m Kirby and the Forgotten Land: 7.52m Legend of Zelda Link's Awakening: 6.63m Clubhouse Games: 4.64m Donkey Kong Country Tropical Freeze: 4.62m Mario Tennis Aces: 4.50m Kirby Star Allies: 4.38m Legend of Zelda Skyward Sword HD: 4.15m Fire Emblem Three Houses: 4.12m Hyrule Warriors Age of Calamity: 4.00m 1-2 Switch: 3.74m Pikmin 4: 3.48m Paper Mario Origami King: 3.47m Yoshi's Crafted World: 3.35m Super Mario RPG: 3.31m Metroid Dread: 3.07m New Pokémon Snap!: 2.74m Xenoblade Chronicles 2: 2.74m Arms: 2.72m Mario Strikers Battle League: 2.63m Mario Golf Super Rush: 2.48m Pikmin 3 Deluxe: 2.40m Captain Toad Treasure Tracker: 2.35m Octopath Traveller: 2.08m Mario + Rabbids Kingdom Battle: 2.00m Pokémon Mystery Dungeon DX: 1.99m Big Brain Academy Brain vs Brain: 1.94m Xenoblade Chronicles Definitive Edition: 1.91m Xenoblade Chronicles 3: 1.91m Kirby's Return to Dream Land Deluxe: 1.82m Miitopia: 1.79m Mario Kart Live Home Circuit: 1.73m Fire Emblem Engage: 1.68m Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: 1.60m Pokkén Tournament DX: 1.54m Nintendo Labo Toy-Con 01 Variety Kit: 1.42m Metroid Prime Remastered: 1.36m Wario Ware Get it Together!: 1.34m Astral Chain: 1.33m Dr Kawashima's Brain training: 1.27m Bayonetta: 1.24m Bayonetta 2: 1.23m Princess Peach Showtime! 1.22m Game Builder Garage: 1.15m Mario Versus Donkey Kong: 1.12m Bayonetta 3: 1.09m Fire Emblem Warriors Three Hopes: 1.00m Nintendo Switch hardware shipments compared to some other platforms (millions of units)

Do you think the Switch can perform, in the current fiscal year, sales like DS' FY7 (March-June: 1.44M, Jul-Sep: 1.14M, Oct-Dec: 2.06M, Jan-Mar: 0.46M)? It would pass the 4.5M forecast number quite a bit

DS in sight, PS2 uncertain with the impacts the US government has on the global economy right now.
In the super likely event Switch 2 has to go up in price this year or next, Switch could as well. And I don't think they would want to make a lot of them to sell at a markup.
Jamboree had a massive start, and the Switch 2 version will help it in the long run.

1.9 million more to beat the DS and become the highest selling Nintendo system of all time.

With the upcoming Switch 2 version plus the current version legging it out, Mario Party Jamboree could be headed for huge numbers. Will be interesting to see if the combined sales of both versions can get close to or maybe even beat Super Mario Party to become the highest selling game in the series.

Deservingly, it's the best Mario Party since 3.

I remember SMP sucked, you could see it all in like a couple of hours. It had no business selling that much.

Yeah SMP benefitted a lot from releasing early in the gen and being the only all-new Mario Party for 6 of the Switch's 8 years.

Jamboree does seem the better game, and given its sold over 7 million in less than 6 months and has a Switch 2 version releasing shortly after that console's launch, I think it has a shot at claiming the throne.