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Forums - Sales - Predict the lifetime sales of Mario Kart World

 

How much do you estimate it will sell?

Under 30 million 4 4.88%
 
30-40 million 12 14.63%
 
40-50 million 26 31.71%
 
50-60 million 19 23.17%
 
60-70 million 9 10.98%
 
Over 70 million 12 14.63%
 
Total:82
curl-6 on 22 April 2025
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Those other Mario Karts released when the series was nowhere near as huge and popular as it is now.

Coming off MK8D selling 67 million (probably more like 75 million by the time it stops selling, if not 80) options for "under 20" or "under 10" just seemed highly unlikely and probably just troll bait.

So far, only like 5% of votes are for under 30, so it seems lower options weren't needed.

False.  Mario Kart Wii sold 37M and then the Wii U SKU sold 8M.  It's popularity on the Wii didn't stop it from selling poorly on the Wii U.  Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS also sold less than Mario Kart DS.

Mario Kart sales very a lot.  Your presumption that it will sell over 30 million seems to be based on the last data point.  It might sell like that again or it might not.  It's not trolling to give options based on other past data points.

Mario Kart was nowhere near as big as it is now when any of those entries released including MKWii, so its still not the same as the current situation. The data point most relevant to its current brand strength is the current entry, 8 Deluxe.

The drop from Wii to 8 was because the install base collapsed from 100 million to 13 million, there chances of that happening with Switch 2 are near zero.

At the end of the day, there's simply no need for lower options, "under 30" covers them.

Last edited by curl-6 - on 22 April 2025

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Mr.GameCrazy on 22 April 2025

I'm thinking 30-40 million right now, but it's too early to tell to be honest.



The_Liquid_Laser on 23 April 2025
curl-6 said:
The_Liquid_Laser said:

False.  Mario Kart Wii sold 37M and then the Wii U SKU sold 8M.  It's popularity on the Wii didn't stop it from selling poorly on the Wii U.  Mario Kart 7 on the 3DS also sold less than Mario Kart DS.

Mario Kart sales very a lot.  Your presumption that it will sell over 30 million seems to be based on the last data point.  It might sell like that again or it might not.  It's not trolling to give options based on other past data points.

Mario Kart was nowhere near as big as it is now when any of those entries released including MKWii, so its still not the same as the current situation. The data point most relevant to its current brand strength is the current entry, 8 Deluxe.

The drop from Wii to 8 was because the install base collapsed from 100 million to 13 million, there chances of that happening with Switch 2 are near zero.

At the end of the day, there's simply no need for lower options, "under 30" covers them.

The chances of the install base dropping significantly from Switch to Switch 2 are near 100%.  That console reveal presentation was not received well by a whole lot of people.  The real question is "how many"?  We'll have a better idea of that in a year or so.  However, it is extremely presumptuous to assume Mario Kart and Switch 2 will do as well as MK8 and Switch 1.



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siebensus4 on 23 April 2025

I expect that Switch 2 will sell a bit better than Wii, so I go with 40 - 50M.



Mar1217 on 23 April 2025

I do think that going in between the sales of MKWii and MK8DX looks to be the sensible option in this case.

I do think the attach rate will be especially high on release and it's first few years. Will likely depend on if they bundle the game repeatedly during the holidays as well.



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curl-6 on 23 April 2025
The_Liquid_Laser said:
curl-6 said:

Mario Kart was nowhere near as big as it is now when any of those entries released including MKWii, so its still not the same as the current situation. The data point most relevant to its current brand strength is the current entry, 8 Deluxe.

The drop from Wii to 8 was because the install base collapsed from 100 million to 13 million, there chances of that happening with Switch 2 are near zero.

At the end of the day, there's simply no need for lower options, "under 30" covers them.

The chances of the install base dropping significantly from Switch to Switch 2 are near 100%.  That console reveal presentation was not received well by a whole lot of people.  The real question is "how many"?  We'll have a better idea of that in a year or so.  However, it is extremely presumptuous to assume Mario Kart and Switch 2 will do as well as MK8 and Switch 1.

Show me where I ever presumed that they will "do just as well"?

It is not at all guaranteed that Switch 2/MKWorld will see a big drop however. The complaints online seem like the same forum bubble outrage we saw before Switch 1's release. ($300 is too expensive, it can't be the same price as PS4, portable games shouldn't be $60, etc)

Heck, if you use online sentiments to predict sales, then the Wii should have been a complete disaster. It was criticised and hated relentlessly, yet in reality it was a huge success.

So far, less than 4% of votes are for below 30m, lower options are simply unnecessary.



Norion on 24 April 2025

If it doesn't have a notably different attach rate then it'll likely end up somewhere in the 55-65m range. Below that means the Switch 2 is only a PS4 level success which is unlikely and above that is getting to the higher 140s which is also unlikely.



Mr.GameCrazy on 25 April 2025
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

About 10 million like the Wii-U version. I'm really not seeing that many people hyped for the Switch 2.

With the game being bundled with the system for a while, I can definitely see it selling a lot more than 10 million.



Hardstuck-Platinum on 25 April 2025
Mr.GameCrazy said:
Hardstuck-Platinum said:

About 10 million like the Wii-U version. I'm really not seeing that many people hyped for the Switch 2.

With the game being bundled with the system for a while, I can definitely see it selling a lot more than 10 million.

Yeah I didn't think about the bundle when I wrote that. I'll go for 15-20 million with the bundle. It may seem low but I'm forecasting a lot of economic turbulence this year which will affect Switch 2 I think. 



Torpoleon on 25 April 2025

I would say at least 60m, so I don't see it outselling Wii Sports & MK8 DX but still being a comfortable #3. Maybe it could do more depending on how NS2 ends up selling and bundles.