I woulda said 100-120 million range before.

And while on the one hand the immense power of the system means it might get a lot more high end spenders, the lack of affordability will mean there's a strong chance it gets a lot fewer price conscious customers, and I think the latter will greatly outweigh the former. I have it firmly in sub-100m territory now.

They are basically competing much more on Sony territory now - highly priced really powerful system. Except PS5 is still more powerful and priced basically the same, except Nintendo games are apparently now, unbelievably, more expensive than PS5 games! Third party support might be fairly similar now, PS5 is gonna have the biggest game (GTAVI), while Nintendo has all the huge Nintendo games. Nintendo is hybrid which is a huge benefit, but PS5 already has 4+ years of sales so unless a console gamer is specifically interested in Nintendo exclusives they aren't gonna bother, same as always.

And even if it does get over 100m, the problem is game prices. Switch games sold insanely well, just crazy crazy good beyond anything else they've ever done, by a long shot. People are going to be buying a lot fewer Nintendo games when they cost $10-$20 more. So we are talking about Nintendo hurting hardware sales, and for that smaller amount of users they are also hurting software sales per user, so much smaller software sales at least for first party games. There's no way Nintendo's franchises are gonna get close to Switch game sales numbers. All just to make a bit more on the front end by charging more upfront instead of gaining revenue and profit through the amount of sales.

I think at this point I expect HW sales to drop something like 40% from Switch and at least first party software sales more like 50% overall.

Switch 2 wont be in trouble but physical games will be for sure.

The software line up is still very strong. A new Mario Kart and a new big scale 3D Donkey Kong game that looks like it's made by the Odyssey team and then Switch 2 editions of Metroid Prime 4 (with 120 fps mode or 4K mode) and Pokemon Z-A is still a very strong launch window, much better than 3DS or Wii U or PS3.

The wheelchair basketball game and Kirby Air Riders seem a bit odd but it's still something. I would assume there will be a big fall title that they haven't unveiled yet. 

Then not to mention 3rd party games like FF7 Remake, Street Fighter VI, Elden Ring, Borderlands 4, Madden NFL, Star Wars Outlaws, Yakuza 0, and probably a lot more 3rd party announcements to come. Nate has said Halo Collection, Forza, MS Flight Simulator, MGS Delta are coming, he was right about FF7 Remake.  

PS5 is more expensive in Japan than in the US. Switch 2 is much cheaper in Japan than in the US. But I was told the weak yen explained and justified Sony's price hikes lol.

Someone mentioned the switch 2 is region locked in Japan because of the yen.

PS5 prices in Japan are reflex of poor software sales. I'm sure Switch 2 will be sold at loss (I'm expecting a loss of 70-80 USD per unit) because Nintendo expect to recover the costs in few years selling games. By a significant margin most of the Nintendo software sales are from first party titles with high profit margins 

Sony needs to sell many times more games than Nintendo per console to have similar profit from Software. In reality console to software tier ratio for PS5 is so bad Sony didn't have a choice but to increase the price until they sold the console at profit. The way it were doing each PS5 unit sold was actually a liability instead of an asset lol 

450$ has been confirmed? It does sound reasonable considering the 120Hz display. Still likely 8nm Samsung SOC with that dual fan setup.

Then what stopped Sony from also region locking and keeping prices reasonable?

I doubt people bought the expensive PS5 to then sit down and play nothing on it. Until we know how much Sony makes from F2P, digital software, and subscription services in Japan, physical game tie-ratio is an insufficient metric. Do keep in mind that many PS5's were imported by China, so a good chunk of spending and software sales data is omitted.

Of course revenue per unit includes subscriptions and in game purchases, if not the situation of PS5 in Japan would not only be problematic but abysmal

But it doesn't change the price increase was to offset production costs. PS5 units were not generating enough money, so Sony increased the priced to at least make some profit with the hardware purchases themselves  

Definitely. Another Wii U. The casuals will not follow the hard-core.