During Trump's term the world had a pandemic on its hands... That's your pause!

Trump didn't introduce the Abraham accords until the end of his term 2020. The first reaction to that (and to the move of the embassy plus annexation of the Golan heights and further support for Settlements) was in 2021 after the completion of the wall https://www.vox.com/22440330/israel-palestine-gaza-airstrikes-hamas-updates-2021

But you're correct, it's all geopolitics. The Abraham accords, the US military bases / occupation, and keeping Israel armed to the teeth to dominate the ME. And indeed Trump accelerates the provocations, Biden very ineffectively tried to temper escalations. In the end it doesn't matter what president is at the helm, they have limited influence on the forces moving behind them.

Biden still hopes to get a ceasefire in Gaza done before Trump gets in office, rescue some of his legacy. Yet Netanyahu is already banking on Trump giving him free reign to continue annexing Palestinian land. Both give Israel impunity, so yeah it's just a change in speed at which the genocide unfolds :/

What can change though, since Trump is more about the money, is less bombing, more annexation by Israeli law. Same as he did before, 'fighting' with legislation, sanctions etc rather than more bombs. Which is good in terms of direct deaths, yet no solution and just setting the region up for a future Oct 7.

1. In his 2000 book “The America We Deserve,” Trump argued that a military strike on Iraq might be necessary.

2. When radio host Howard Stern asked Trump in September 2002 if he is “for invading Iraq,” Trump responded, “Yeah, I guess so. I wish the first time it was done correctly.”

3. Trump increased troop levels in warzones.

4. In 2019, air strikes from the US and its allies in Afghanistan killed 700 civilians, more than in any other year since the beginning of the war in 2001 and 2002

5. The US dropped more bombs on Afghanistan in 2019 than any other year since the Pentagon began keeping a tally in 2006.

6. He vetoed a measure to force the end to U.S. Involvement in Yemen War.

7. He vetoed bills intended to block arms sales to Saudi Arabia

8. He destroyed all progress with Iran via the Nuclear Deal and then dropped a bomb on an Iranian General.

9. He abandoned America's Kurdish allies, ask them as they're being slaughtered if the world is more peaceful.

10. He said of Russia invading a NATO country "I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want."

11. SvennoJ can and has already posted about how Trump's policies directly led to inflaming tensions around Israel.

12. The Russo-Ukrainian War started in 2014 and then escalated into a Full-Scale Invasion in 2022. I did not see Trump stop the war when he was President the first time around, that was when Russia only occupied Crimea and parts of Donbas via proxies, Trump couldn't stop the war then but I'm now expected to believe he can stop the war when Russia now occupies 15-20% of Ukraine?

I'm convinced by "peace" that Trump voters mean Americans scrubbing their hands of everything while watching the world burn which tracks with Trump voters, they don't care about anyone but themselves and who cares about the non-whites being bombed, and as for Ukraine, that's entirely on Europe, irrelevant of the security commitments America made to Ukraine in the 90s and Israel? They can slaughter whoever they want because it's Holy Land or some religious nonsense like that and Israel has America bent over backwards (Both Democrat and Republican)

As for Trump himself, he is as much of a hawk as any other President but he tends to be sympathetic to countries like Russia and only hawkish to the countries full with non-white people, maybe he does the right thing and supports Ukraine but that definitely isn't what Trump voters have in mind, they've been all in on Trump abandoning Ukraine which they stupidly believe will lead to peace. He ain't no peace loving dove, the issue, however, is knowing who he decides to wake up angry against in any given day.

Agree. In more recent memory there was Yugoslavia. It got split up in 2003. I can imagine we will have a territory 'Donjesk' with some kind of 'neutral' independent status as buffer zone.

i hope that Trump keeps his promise to support Taiwan.  But it's like i can't trust Trump very much.  You always doubt the guy because you never know where he really stands.  

Obama ended America's involvement in the Iraq War. Trump started ending the Afghanistan War but it was Biden who pulled the last remaining troops out under Trump's sloppy plan albeit I did agree with pulling out, I just did not agree with how it was done, it was a fucking mess. The Syrian War continues to this date, the Ukraine War was ongoing during Trump's Presidency and he did nothing to stop it. The Saudi-Yemen conflict is still ongoing. So I can only really give him credit for ending one war and ultimately he didn't finish the job, Biden did.

His assassination of the Iranian General came very close to spiralling out of control, it was extremely reckless, meanwhile Trump fans are shouting that allowing Ukraine to use Western Missiles on Russia is escalation, Lol. It's massively hypocritical to take the stance that America directly bombing an Iranian General is absolutely okay but Ukraine (not America, not UK) using missiles on Russia is too far. Now if UK flew over and dropped a bomb on Sergei Shoigu then maybe they'd have a point.

Trump increased troop levels, deepening reliance on private contractors, dramatically scaled up aerial warfare. His term saw four years of growth of the Pentagon budget. And loosening even the minimal drone rule restrictions that were already in place, he expanded the United States drone wars. He worsened conflicts, dropping more bombs, stoking further conflict, and massively increasing the rate of civilian deaths. Trump did nothing to end U.S. support of the SA-Yemen war, he repeatedly used his veto power to override bipartisan majorities in Congress that tried to stop U.S. military involvement and block the flow of arms to the conflict. Trump shredded the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, withdrew from the Open Skies Treaty that ensured transparency between the U.S., much of Europe, and Russia, and failed to extend the critical New START Treaty with Russia.

Conflicts don't cease to exist just because Americans stick their heads in the sand.

Yeah, I wouldn't say it's impossible even that Trump decides to support Ukraine if Putin hurts his ego but when Russian Media blasted Melania's nudes over State TV as a mockery against her, Trump didn't say anything in response, Lol. He's weak when it comes to Russia and he's too stupid to tackle China, the last trade war with China ended up with an American loss and them bailing out their farmers.

Trump Says Taiwan Should Pay The US For Its Defence As ‘It Doesn’t Give Us Anything’ | Taiwan | The Guardian

When he says shit like this (which btw, is horseshit) it doesn't inspire much confidence he would defend Taiwan even with how much he hates the Chinese, everything has to be a transaction to him, albeit he casually ignores Taiwan supplying most of the worlds semiconductors and spending literally billions upon billions buying American military equipment.

List of US Arms Sales to Taiwan - Wikipedia

And what will convince China even more to have a pop at Taiwan is if America abandons Ukraine to Russia, all it will show to America's enemies is that America is both an unreliable ally and weak whose word doesn't mean shit, it will show that Trump himself is weak and USA doesn't have the stomach to defend its allies and throws bullshit excuses out like "We're not getting anything in return!" as an excuse to runaway. Want to discourage China from taking Taiwan? Put down Russia, their strongest ally and show China that America can and will defend its allies.

But I get the feeling a lot of people didn't learn about WW2 in history classes and how appeasement and rewarding invading countries doesn't discourage them from taking even more, it only emboldens them. You don't reward bullies by giving them a quarter of your shit, they'll only continue and take the rest of your shit, you put them on their ass and send a message.

Edit - Unless your name is Israel, if you're Israel then you can do whatever you want and have America defending you.

That's right.  It's almost like the pre-WW2 era all over again.  First hitler took over one country, then another, then another.  

I feel like Russia is getting the message that they can't just bully others.  We can't give up yet, but they are definitely getting the message.  China may decide that the time is right with the war in ukraine going on and trump in office, so many worried people will be waiting for his term to be over.   

The only thing that I've repeatedly heard is that China's military isn't ready yet to make an attempt on Taiwan, IIRC a lot of estimates put it at late 2020's when China's military will be better equipped for such a move, even without America's support, Taiwan will be incredibly difficult to take, it's nothing like Ukraine, China doesn't share a land border with Taiwan, Taiwan has far more advanced equipment than Ukraine ever did, Taiwan has a natural barrier between them and China (the sea) and if China wants to take Taiwan without destroying the factories then they're going to have to go all Normandy x10 and Taiwan is going to blow the factories either way even if China takes it.

So having said all of that, I would put the odds of China even making a military attempt on Taiwan as more unlikely than likely no matter who is President because it simply doesn't make any strategic sense, it would be a fucking slaughter and surely Russia's piss-up of the much easier Ukraine has given China, who has less battle-experience than Russia in modern times, second thoughts but on the other hand, history has repeatedly shown us that dictators learn nothing from other dictators mistakes, they always think "Yeah, he screwed up, but I'm smarter" and drown in their overconfidence so I also wouldn't put it as an impossibility.

I've always pitched China as smarter than Russia, China tends to focus more on long-term strategy and a more methodical approach whereas Russia is more direct, more chaotic, they've invaded multiple countries since the 90s, the only reason they got away with it is because America and Europe ignored it in naivety of hoping Russia would one day be normal, fear of Russia and economic benefits.

Think it depends really on the reason for invading, does China want Taiwan more for the factories? In which case, a war would be a braindead idea, does China want Taiwan more for cultural significance and power projection? Then a war is more likely, does China invade Taiwan to distract from domestic issues? That's a possibility. I'm not sure, I can't read Xi's mind, I couldn't read Putin's lunatic mind either, I didn't really think he would be this insane but hey I was wrong, looking back on things, we only have ourselves to blame for treating Russia with kid gloves for 20+ years.

So I don't think China invades Taiwan even with Trump in power but I do think Trump abandoning Ukraine will give China a bit of a "hmm" moment depending on the reason they want to take Taiwan because why the fuck wouldn't it? Lol. If I was a dictator and saw the most powerful country in the world crying about helping Ukraine and then abandoning them, I too would think to myself "What a weak fuck, maybe I should take what I want too" or at least, take what I want, hold onto it for a couple years until America/Europe gets bored of trying to stop me and then rewards me with the land I've taken.

We're probably too focused on China anyway, such a move would embolden countries all over the world, Taiwan is one thing to protect but who the fuck is going to protect, lets say, Armenia, if Azerbaijan decides to invade them, or any other country with ambitions of land grabs, knowing that nobody would come to defend the one they're invading, or at least, believing it, because America can't even help its own allies and Europe can't defend its own backyard. Words and treaty agreements would suddenly mean shit and not be a threat at all. America already had a security agreement with Ukraine back in the 90s and they signed a new one in 2024 so who the fuck would care about what America says at this stage? Words don't mean shit without actions.

When I see this argument it does raise my concerns which often get lessened and I become complacent that one of our countries has been invaded. 

Man, idk what China is gonna do or when they are gonna do it but fuck, maybe it would just be better for them to get it over with and fail if they are so intent on "reunification" cause there is no way in hell, short of a nuking the island, are they taking that little fortress. Backed by the US or not but surely since Trump dispises China he will back Taiwan. 

That said, I'm secure in my thinking that Xi is scared of Trump or at least apprehensive of his unpredictability and he won't move. 

China is smarter, they employ unrestricted warfare. Like The Art of war but taken to a completely immoral level of not playing by established rules or having any moral grounding in decision making whatsoever. There's a book by a former General Robert Spalding that I'd highly recommend, two actually bit I haven't read the second yet. Stealth War: How China took over America while the Elites slept. Really insightful stuff and it gives you perspective on Chinas movements. The shit they've done, like stealing stuff from the private sector through civilians will turn your stomach like stealing start ups innovations or fresh ideas and producing the product before thae company has a chance to get to that stage because they're following regulations. They are so indifferent that they are evil by any measure of the word.