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SvennoJ 1 day ago
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Tober said:
SvennoJ said:

Isis never stopped
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/03/18/trump-isis-terrorists-defeated-foreign-policy-225816/

But I'll give you a slight lull in the death count during his presidency



2016-2020 saw fewer deaths compared to Obama.

However no change in number of armed conflicts


And he did set up the conditions for the current wars in the ME with his policies. The Abraham accords are deeply unpopular among the populations and seen as a ploy to sideline the Palestinian issue.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/abraham-accords-peace-middle-east/

Almost every assumption that undergirded the Israel-Arab normalization agreements was disastrously wrong, and now we are paying the price.

That's Trump's baby, instead of helping towards a solution on the ME he sharpened the divides and fueled the tension leading to Oct 7.

https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2023/dec/05/donald-trump/trump-claims-he-made-peace-in-the-middle-east-with/

The blood of 1,200+ Israelis, 3,600+ Lebanese and over 44,000 Palestinians is partly on Trump's hands.

https://time.com/6339889/cancel-abraham-accords/



To me, it looks like we are now in a continuation of the Arab Spring. During Trumps first term, there seemed to be a pause of some kind.

In round one, we bombed Libya back into a failed state, had a coup in Egypt, an attempted coup in Turkey and the USA established an army base in Syria (should that not be considered an invasion of a sovereign country?).

Looks like we are in the middle of round two. Geopolitics does not care about freedom or democracy. It cares to protect and expand interests, military and economically. Sadly it appears to me more and more that October 7th was a perfect opportunity for the Hawks to continue. From Gaza, now Lebanon and I expect Syria will be next (Russia is busy now, so won't be sending troops to Syria this time.). With the big prize Iran on the horizon.

How quickly this will unfold will have something to do with who is President, but longer term the objectives are clear and inevitable. They always were.

During Trump's term the world had a pandemic on its hands... That's your pause!

Trump didn't introduce the Abraham accords until the end of his term 2020. The first reaction to that (and to the move of the embassy plus annexation of the Golan heights and further support for Settlements) was in 2021 after the completion of the wall https://www.vox.com/22440330/israel-palestine-gaza-airstrikes-hamas-updates-2021

But you're correct, it's all geopolitics. The Abraham accords, the US military bases / occupation, and keeping Israel armed to the teeth to dominate the ME. And indeed Trump accelerates the provocations, Biden very ineffectively tried to temper escalations. In the end it doesn't matter what president is at the helm, they have limited influence on the forces moving behind them.

Biden still hopes to get a ceasefire in Gaza done before Trump gets in office, rescue some of his legacy. Yet Netanyahu is already banking on Trump giving him free reign to continue annexing Palestinian land. Both give Israel impunity, so yeah it's just a change in speed at which the genocide unfolds :/

What can change though, since Trump is more about the money, is less bombing, more annexation by Israeli law. Same as he did before, 'fighting' with legislation, sanctions etc rather than more bombs. Which is good in terms of direct deaths, yet no solution and just setting the region up for a future Oct 7.