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Ryuu96 1 day ago
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shavenferret said:
Ryuu96 said:

Yeah, I wouldn't say it's impossible even that Trump decides to support Ukraine if Putin hurts his ego but when Russian Media blasted Melania's nudes over State TV as a mockery against her, Trump didn't say anything in response, Lol. He's weak when it comes to Russia and he's too stupid to tackle China, the last trade war with China ended up with an American loss and them bailing out their farmers.

Trump Says Taiwan Should Pay The US For Its Defence As ‘It Doesn’t Give Us Anything’ | Taiwan | The Guardian

When he says shit like this (which btw, is horseshit) it doesn't inspire much confidence he would defend Taiwan even with how much he hates the Chinese, everything has to be a transaction to him, albeit he casually ignores Taiwan supplying most of the worlds semiconductors and spending literally billions upon billions buying American military equipment.

List of US Arms Sales to Taiwan - Wikipedia

And what will convince China even more to have a pop at Taiwan is if America abandons Ukraine to Russia, all it will show to America's enemies is that America is both an unreliable ally and weak, it will show that Trump himself is weak and USA doesn't have the stomach to defend its allies and throws bullshit excuses out like "We're not getting anything in return!" as an excuse to runaway. Want to discourage China from taking Taiwan? Put down Russia, their strongest ally and show China that America can and will defend its allies.

But I get the feeling a lot of people didn't learn about WW2 in history classes and how appeasement and rewarding invading countries doesn't discourage them from taking even more, it only emboldens them. You don't reward bullies by giving them a quarter of your shit, they'll only continue and take the rest of your shit, you put them on their ass and send a message.

That's right.  It's almost like the pre-WW2 era all over again.  First hitler took over one country, then another, then another. Â

I feel like Russia is getting the message that they can't just bully others.  We can't give up yet, but they are definitely getting the message.  China may decide that the time is right with the war in ukraine going on and trump in office, so many worried people will be waiting for his term to be over.   

The only thing that I've repeatedly heard is that China's military isn't ready yet to make an attempt on Taiwan, IIRC a lot of estimates put it at late 2020's when China's military will be better equipped for such a move, even without America's support, Taiwan will be incredibly difficult to take, it's nothing like Ukraine, China doesn't share a land border with Taiwan, Taiwan has far more advanced equipment than Ukraine ever did, Taiwan has a natural barrier between them and China (the sea) and if China wants to take Taiwan without destroying the factories then they're going to have to go all Normandy x10 and Taiwan is going to blow the factories either way even if China takes it.

So having said all of that, I would put the odds of China even making a military attempt on Taiwan as more unlikely than likely no matter who is President because it simply doesn't make any strategic sense, it would be a fucking slaughter and surely Russia's piss-up of the much easier Ukraine has given China, who has less battle-experience than Russia in modern times, second thoughts but on the other hand, history has repeatedly shown us that dictators learn nothing from other dictators mistakes, they always think "Yeah, he screwed up, but I'm smarter" and drown in their overconfidence so I also wouldn't put it as an impossibility.

I've always pitched China as smarter than Russia, China tends to focus more on long-term strategy and a more methodical approach whereas Russia is more direct, more chaotic, they've invaded multiple countries since the 90s, the only reason they got away with it is because America and Europe ignored it in naivety of hoping Russia would one day be normal, fear of Russia and economic benefits.

Think it depends really on the reason for invading, does China want Taiwan more for the factories? In which case, a war would be a braindead idea, does China want Taiwan more for cultural significance and power projection? Then a war is more likely, does China invade Taiwan to distract from domestic issues? That's a possibility. I'm not sure, I can't read Xi's mind, I couldn't read Putin's lunatic mind either, I didn't really think he would be this insane but hey I was wrong, looking back on things, we only have ourselves to blame for treating Russia with kid gloves for 20+ years.

So I don't think China invades Taiwan even with Trump in power but I do think Trump abandoning Ukraine will give China a bit of a "hmm" moment depending on the reason they want to take Taiwan because why the fuck wouldn't it? Lol. If I was a dictator and saw the most powerful country in the world crying about helping Ukraine and then abandoning them, I too would think to myself "What a weak fuck, maybe I should take what I want too" or at least, take what I want, hold onto it for a couple years until America/Europe gets bored of trying to stop me and then rewards me with the land I've taken.

We're probably too focused on China anyway, such a move would embolden countries all over the world, Taiwan is one thing to protect but who the fuck is going to protect, lets say, Armenia, if Azerbaijan decides to invade them, or any other country with ambitions of land grabs, knowing that nobody would come to defend the one they're invading, or at least, believing it, because America can't even help its own allies and Europe can't defend its own backyard. Words and treaty agreements would suddenly mean shit and not be a threat at all. America already had a security agreement with Ukraine back in the 90s and they signed a new one in 2024 so who the fuck would care about what America says at this stage? Words don't mean shit without actions.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - 1 day ago