Yeah.... No.

They are forecasting 4m for this fiscal year (April 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026) per Nintendo's current forecast, which brings them to 156.12m for March 31st 2026. You are expecting them to do another 4m units in just spring/summer 2026? Lol.

Before holidays 2026 isn't on the table. As "everybody in their right mind" can see.

If they're shipping 4m for April 1st 2025 to March 31st 2026, they aren't shipping another 4m for April 1st 2026 to October 31st 2026, not even close. Sales will be down substantially YoY, not up.

I won't say it's impossible but it's definitely looking unlikely it will be able to reach 160M, and these price hikes for Switch 1 definitely didnt help.

If it sells 4M ending March 2026 it'll be around 156M, it'll be hard to muster up another 4M even after several years to reach 160M. A console that's going to be 9 years old with its backwards compatible successor thats already a runaway success plus barely more expensive than the Switch 1 means that sales will inevitably only go down from that 4M mark, im expecting maybe 2M for the fiscal year ending March 2027 before maybe barely selling another Million after March 2027 before all said and done. It's looking like it'll end maybe around 158-159M, just barely short.

The Switch 2 being as big of a success as it is won't help either, Nintendo is now going to have even more confidence to drop the Switch 1 earlier knowing the Switch 2 is gonna be a smash hit.

The tariffs have absolutely did it in, 159 million are my expectations unless they do have a late gen remodel. I think they should discontinue Switch and Switch Oled during this fiscal year or atleast Oled as early as this March. Bundle Switch Lite with MK8 and just let it cost to the end.

hope holidays 2025 will boost sales and bit extra help from Japan!

 •  2-3mil for the remainder of CY’25 gets system up to 156-157mil.
 •  500-700k average during non-holiday quarters of 2026 brings system up to 157.5-159.1mil before the holidays.
 •  0.75-2mil for remainder of CY’26 gets system up to 158.25-161.1mil.
 •  200-400k average during non-holiday quarters of 2027 brings system up to 158.85-162.3mil.
 •  0.25-1mil for remainder of CY’27 gets system up to 159.10-163.3mil.
 •  Remainder of LTD will be 0.25mil-1mil, landing the system comfortably at…

Final prediction (95% CI): 159.35-164.3mil.

(And FWIW if you wanna apply some statistical theory, then this CI says that there is a 92.6% chance of Switch hitting 160mil.)

The Switch needs to pull up a PS2 move and not decline YoY signicantly between the next 2 years to get a change to hit 160M. It's kinda funny. To beat the PS2, the Switch gotta prove it can do what the PS2 did.

One way I can see it doing this is continuing to sell well in Japan + find fresh markets in the Other region as, for many countries (like mine), a Switch 1 is way more affordable to the population than a Switch 2

Another thing that can help is if the Switch 2's price in the US get increased due to the tariffs, just like what happened to all the other consoles

Switch is cleary the better seller by a mile through its first 8 years, which IMO is more than long enough. PS2 just padded out a few more units due to being way cheaper and needing years and years extra, there's nothing impressive about that. 

Nintendo could have this record easily and do it years earlier if they really wanted it, they could just drop the price and the whole charade would be over. 

PS2 is the definition of "saved by the bell" in this case, it can't sell on pace with the Switch otherwise, it needs to be bailed out. 

The main issue here is it's not definitely not shipping anywhere near 3m for the rest of this year. It'll be surprising if it doesn't ship less than 2m during Q3 at this point. Everything is pointing to it shipping less than that for the entirety of the next fiscal year at this point as well and it for sure won't have another couple million left in the tank post March 2027.

The price difference in the US may not be much, but here in Sweden the Switch 2 is over 50% more expensive than Switch 1 OLED. I think there’s room for it to sell to budget gamers.

Yeah, every time comparisons between the PS2 and other consoles are made, I'm struck by how backwards we are sometimes. It's not that other consoles have unexpectedly short lifespans; it's that the PS2 was an anomaly and had an unusually long lifespan. One of its most important factors was media capability paired with developing markets (Eastern-Europe and South-America chief among these), developing markets are typically a few years behind the curve, waiting for lower pricing and more, cheaper, content. 

Edit; there were more factors, of course, one being the global transition to the HD-era, which took its time and had subsequent (and running) costs tied to it.