When will the Switch pass 160M?

[Norion]

firebush03 said:

 •  2-3mil for the remainder of CY’25 gets system up to 156-157mil.
 •  500-700k average during non-holiday quarters of 2026 brings system up to 157.5-159.1mil before the holidays.
 •  0.75-2mil for remainder of CY’26 gets system up to 158.25-161.1mil.
 •  200-400k average during non-holiday quarters of 2027 brings system up to 158.85-162.3mil.
 •  0.25-1mil for remainder of CY’27 gets system up to 159.10-163.3mil.
 •  Remainder of LTD will be 0.25mil-1mil, landing the system comfortably at…

Final prediction (95% CI): 159.35-164.3mil.

(And FWIW if you wanna apply some statistical theory, then this CI says that there is a 92.6% chance of Switch hitting 160mil.)

The main issue here is it's not definitely not shipping anywhere near 3m for the rest of this year. It'll be surprising if it doesn't ship less than 2m during Q3 at this point. Everything is pointing to it shipping less than that for the entirety of the next fiscal year at this point as well and it for sure won't have another couple million left in the tank post March 2027.