Both the year and the nominees are very solid.

Since Switch launch Nintendo was nominated every year except 2018 and 2024, and honestly I can't say it's surprising both were pretty lukewarm years. The best thing Nintendo produced this year was Echoes of Wisdom which imo screams "average" all around

From 2017 to 2023 Nintendo got 8 nominees. Sony got 10. So while Sony has the uperhand, Nintendo still the second biggest publisher

You’re being a bit harsh here. Astro Bot (95OC), FFVIIRebirth (93OC), Metaphor (92OC), Balatro (91OC) is an incredibly stacked line up of four games, and even though SotE (94OC) is DLC, it is also very highly acclaimed. Had SotE not been nominated, there are several other very high quality games which could’ve easily taken its place (Animal Well, Zelda EoW, Helldivers 2, Like A Dragon, etc.).

Latter. It's been an amazing year for games personally esp for RPGs. TGA's started as a chuckle and have devolved into a full-blown farce.

I don't know how anyone can say it's a lock:

1. Rebirth didn't review as well as AstroBot.

2. It's competing with two other RPGs (Metaphor and Erdtree).

3. It's at an inherent disadvantage of having already been played in some form. Have any "remake" of any form won GOTY before?

4. The series is generally in decline popularity wise.

I sure hope it wins though. You played Remake/Rebirth yet? The combat system is simply god-tier especially Rebirth's, I wasn't ready!!

To be fair, I think I’m always more interested in the trailers than the awards. 

Stellar Blade has become it for me, what an insanely addictive and delightfully refreshing game experience, like playing 20 years worth genre leading games mashed into in one title.

You're in a very poor mood these days. 

Which can be watched post show rather than suffer through it

I wonder what Kojima will show this year. I hope it's about OD. I'm curious about this project.

Anyway, my vote goes for Rebirth.