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Forums - Politics Discussion - Are we on the early stages of World War 3. (Poll)

 

We are in the early stages of World War 3...

Yes 16 28.07%
 
No 41 71.93%
 
Total:57

People have already forgotten this happened and the US let it happen. People's memories are short these days. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/russia-tenet-media-right-wing-influencers-justice-department/

Why wasn't intelligence on the ball here? How did they not know or why did they let it happen for so long. 



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LegitHyperbole said:
Ryuu96 said:

The South China Sea

****SEA****

How do you think America's fighting a war on the sea?

It won't be as simple as that, The moment Taiwan is put in jeopardy or God knows if China manage to invade then shit goes wild real fast, so many countries are going to be extremely pissed from Japan down to Austrailia, many are in Chinas pocket. A lot of Islands there it becomes a real mess on the map. But...yes. We can hope that it stays naval but we just don't know how it'll shake out. How did they fight World War 2 in the same sea? It wasn't just confined to naval and Air warfare. 

If that happens (China invading Taiwan) it will be another proxy war like Ukraine.

People love their Chinese food too much to start a direct war with China ;)



LegitHyperbole said:
Ryuu96 said:

The South China Sea

****SEA****

How do you think America's fighting a war on the sea?

It won't be as simple as that, The moment Taiwan is put in jeopardy or God knows if China manage to invade then shit goes wild real fast, so many countries are going to be extremely pissed from Japan down to Austrailia, many are in Chinas pocket. A lot of Islands there it becomes a real mess on the map. But...yes. We can hope that it stays naval but we just don't know how it'll shake out. How did they fight World War 2 in the same sea? It wasn't just confined to naval and Air warfare. 

China's military isn't ready to take on Taiwan yet, I believe most estimates still give it a number of years before they've built up the manpower and equipment needed. In addition to that, China's modern military isn't battle-tested and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia, why am I mentioning that? Because Taiwan is far better equipped and far better prepared for invasion than Ukraine ever was.

Taiwan has literally prepared for this for dozens of years, Taiwan isn't some weak country sitting in the middle of the sea, Russia literally borders Ukraine and is massively struggling despite having far superior numbers and in the initial stages, equipment. Taiwan is literally an island, it far superior natural advantages, superior equipment than Ukraine, if China wants Taiwan then they'll surely know how costly it will be.

And that's even without America and others getting involved, it'll be like Normandy on Steroids. Unless China just turns Taiwan to ashes but what would China's invasion reasoning be? Would it be for the land or would it be for the technology? If it's the latter then a war makes zero sense because Taiwan would just blow up all their factories before China even stepped one foot on their land.

I think that China is ran by a horrible regime but I also think China is smarter than Russia and will instead opt to try to influence countries through politics rather than brute force, that is unless the West abandons Ukraine and lets Russia take Ukraine, then I think we'll have a different conversation where China may be encouraged to make a move on Taiwan under the belief that the West wouldn't save them.

As things stand right now, I don't believe that is the current future, China needs the West just as much as the West needs China, they're much more integrated with us than Russia ever was, we can get away with sanctioning Russia pretty easily but we wouldn't with China, but nor could China with us. I think China likes the smell of capitalism, Lol.

They're surrounded by countries that dislike them. Many of whom have territorial disputes with China.

Militaries today focus a lot more on air and naval force, China would have to invade via sea and air to reach Taiwan, which would likewise be protected by America's navy and air-force (and UK, Australia, Japan, etc.) and Taiwan's own. What reason would America have to perform a land invasion of China? And even if they did, the vast majority of the conflict would still be via the skies and seas.



SvennoJ said:
LegitHyperbole said:

It won't be as simple as that, The moment Taiwan is put in jeopardy or God knows if China manage to invade then shit goes wild real fast, so many countries are going to be extremely pissed from Japan down to Austrailia, many are in Chinas pocket. A lot of Islands there it becomes a real mess on the map. But...yes. We can hope that it stays naval but we just don't know how it'll shake out. How did they fight World War 2 in the same sea? It wasn't just confined to naval and Air warfare. 

If that happens (China invading Taiwan) it will be another proxy war like Ukraine.

People love their Chinese food too much to start a direct war with China ;)

Nope. Australia and Japan would think otherwise, America would have to intervene and ther is no Iran to keep them from doing so. I would think increasing the odds of a Nuclear winter would be enough to deter people more than cheap Chinese products but we'll no when we get there. 



LegitHyperbole said:
Ryuu96 said:

-Snip-

Second thing, China has so many more fighting age men it's unbelievable. Even if there was a draft in the US they'd still have so, so many more. Not to mention so many US men will fail bootcamp for many reasons. If China wants to invade, they don't need military equipment, they need able bodied men and they have a lot of them and a lot tougher too than the US where so many are over weight. 

You're killing me Hyperbole...What do you think takes those able bodied men across the ocean? Lmao.

MILITARY EQUIPMENT!

There's not a single country on this planet which would think it would be a good invade to perform a land invasion of America in the year 2024. China can pack all the able-bodied men it wants into ships like a tin of sardines and go try to invade America by land, they'll soon lose tens of thousands to the bottom of the ocean when America sinks them before they even reach American soil.

America and its allies...

Manpower is worth considering but it's not the sole factor of a countries power, if it was then Russia would have won the Ukraine war by now. We aren't in the early 90s anymore, air and naval equipment has advanced massively, even drone technology is taking huge leaps recently, NATO for the most part doesn't fight wars anymore by digging trenches and sending thousands of men to charge in a straight line to their deaths.

Edit - I may have screwed up here and mistakenly thought you was talking about China invading America, now I re-read it I think you're talking about China invading Taiwan but large parts of my arguments still stand for that scenario too, manpower isn't everything, especially against a country surrounded by an ocean and the only way to it is through sea or skies, being defended by some of the most powerful navies and air-forces in the world.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 23 September 2024

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Ryuu96 said:
LegitHyperbole said:

It won't be as simple as that, The moment Taiwan is put in jeopardy or God knows if China manage to invade then shit goes wild real fast, so many countries are going to be extremely pissed from Japan down to Austrailia, many are in Chinas pocket. A lot of Islands there it becomes a real mess on the map. But...yes. We can hope that it stays naval but we just don't know how it'll shake out. How did they fight World War 2 in the same sea? It wasn't just confined to naval and Air warfare. 

China's military isn't ready to take on Taiwan yet, I believe most estimates still give it a number of years before they've built up the manpower and equipment needed. In addition to that, China's modern military isn't battle-tested and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia, why am I mentioning that? Because Taiwan is far better equipped and far better prepared for invasion than Ukraine ever was.

Taiwan has literally prepared for this for dozens of years, Taiwan isn't some weak country sitting in the middle of the sea, Russia literally borders Ukraine and is massively struggling despite having far superior numbers and in the initial stages, equipment. Taiwan is literally an island, it far superior natural advantages, superior equipment than Ukraine, if China wants Taiwan then they'll surely know how costly it will be.

And that's even without America and others getting involved, it'll be like Normandy on Steroids. Unless China just turns Taiwan to ashes but what would China's invasion reasoning be? Would it be for the land or would it be for the technology? If it's the latter then a war makes zero sense because Taiwan would just blow up all their factories before China even stepped one foot on their land.

I think that China is ran by a horrible regime but I also think China is smarter than Russia and will instead opt to try to influence countries through politics rather than brute force, that is unless the West abandons Ukraine and lets Russia take Ukraine, then I think we'll have a different conversation where China may be encouraged to make a move on Taiwan under the belief that the West wouldn't save them.

As things stand right now, I don't believe that is the current future, China needs the West just as much as the West needs China, they're much more integrated with us than Russia ever was, we can get away with sanctioning Russia pretty easily but we wouldn't with China, but nor could China with us. I think China likes the smell of capitalism, Lol.

They're surrounded by countries that dislike them. Many of whom have territorial disputes with China.

Militaries today focus a lot more on air and naval force, China would have to invade via sea and air to reach Taiwan, which would likewise be protected by America's navy and air-force (and UK, Australia, Japan, etc.) and Taiwan's own. What reason would America have to perform a land invasion of China? And even if they did, the vast majority of the conflict would still be via the skies and seas.

I think you will find that companies like TSMC also have plans in place to "scuttle" their factories and technology in the instance of an invasion as well... Plus they are solidifying their manufacturing by building new fabs in other regions of the world.

That does undermine the point of invading Taiwan to start with, unless China's goal was to disrupt semiconductor supply.

But.. That is also where Intel comes in, which is getting significant US Government support to build fabs in the USA to mitigate those risks.

On the other side of the equation... In the event of war, China's supply of resources will be disrupted, massively. - As China is a heavy importer of raw materials.
China sources the majority of Iron Ore from Australia, majority of it's Coal from Indonesia and Australia, Chile for Copper, Australia and Chile for Lithium and more.
China isn't resource independent yet, let alone energy independent... Once that flow of oil and coal stop, China's electricity output will be massively impacted.
I guess this is why Australia has been able to maneuver itself during the financial crisis and avoid recession, resources pay.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

LegitHyperbole said:

I just wanna address two things here, the rest I'm not knowledgeable enough to talk on. You said the US has more military budget than China but we don't know China's true spending, it's all calculated from what can be seen as them spending but even those calculations are pretty high, half a trillion so half the US budget. They have much shrouded in secret, their Nuclear weapons programme for one and it wouldn't surprise me should they keep a lot of other R&D secret too.

Second thing, China has so many more fighting age men it's unbelievable. Even if there was a draft in the US they'd still have so, so many more. Not to mention so many US men will fail bootcamp for many reasons. If China wants to invade, they don't need military equipment, they need able bodied men and they have a lot of them and a lot tougher too than the US where so many are over weight. 

And how would they cross the ocean? The US has about 60% of all military vessels in the world by displacement, they could shut down the seas in an instant if they ever wanted to. Sure, China has 3 times as many ships... but half of them are coast guard patrol boats and the biggest chunk of the rest are small corvettes. Also, many of their bigger ships are getting old and outdated and simply cant keep up with the US Navy in any shape or form.

Besides, it's true that China has many more inhabitants... but they also have a shrinking and rapidly aging population, with their working age population shrinking more and more thanks to the one-child-policy and it's after-effects. China can ill afford sending it's able-bodied men and women into a conflict that will for sure end in the losses of countless Chinese if their population is already shrinking.

But the biggest Problem would simply be basic economics: Unlike Russia for instance, China has not only geared it's economy towards exports, but even doubled down on it twice when it would have been better to boost consumerism by raising wages in the country. Any war would totally crash their export-driven economy since there wouldn't be many left to export - especially not the rich western countries they rely heavily upon to keep their economy afloat, something that seems to become harder and harder now.

Last edited by Bofferbrauer2 - on 23 September 2024


A) World War III already happened. It was called the Cold War.

B) Wars like WW1 + especially 2 likely aren't possible in the conventional sense any longer.

C) China + Russia would get bent over if they tried to take on the US + UK + France + Germany + Japan + Canada + rest of NATO + likely India (has adversarial relationship with China) + South Korea + Australia. Their economy would take a massive hit. Some little island isn't worth all that trouble IMO. I'm guessing they are smart enough to realize the answer is no. Let the status quo be. 

Last edited by Soundwave - on 23 September 2024

^ I didn't't say invade the US. I meant Taiwan.



rapsuperstar31 said:
LegitHyperbole said:

A Cold War. Indeed. But I can't see how it stays cold when land is a the center of the issue, it's not like the cold War in that regard, they're not civil wars. These are wars for land outside of the countries pursuing these conflicts, they can't stay cold. If Taiwan is the next on the list of invasions the best we can hope for is for it to be fought in the air and sea. 

Humans have change quite a bit since WW2.  What large scale wars have China fought and won lately, do you really think China wants to test their inexperienced army in a WW?  The UK has completely changed from a hundred plus years ago and are pretty peaceful people.  All of the USA allies are peaceful for the most part, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, most of Europe, Japan etc. (not so much Israel).  China and the USA depend on each other so much for trade, that neither will ever want war with each other.  Anyone that would try and attack America in the USA would lose, it's too big.  Same with China, if anyone tried to attack China on Chinese soil they would lose.

Both the US and China would be darn near impossible to take, but while China could almost never reach America to invade, America could get close enough to China. At the very least, with most of China's population and infrastructure being in the south and east portion along the sea, America could cause plenty of destruction, enough to stall China entirely for a decade anyway, if not more. America wouldn't even need to touch soil to deem themselves victorious.