Ryuu96 said:
China's military isn't ready to take on Taiwan yet, I believe most estimates still give it a number of years before they've built up the manpower and equipment needed. In addition to that, China's modern military isn't battle-tested and Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been a disaster for Russia, why am I mentioning that? Because Taiwan is far better equipped and far better prepared for invasion than Ukraine ever was. Taiwan has literally prepared for this for dozens of years, Taiwan isn't some weak country sitting in the middle of the sea, Russia literally borders Ukraine and is massively struggling despite having far superior numbers and in the initial stages, equipment. Taiwan is literally an island, it far superior natural advantages, superior equipment than Ukraine, if China wants Taiwan then they'll surely know how costly it will be. And that's even without America and others getting involved, it'll be like Normandy on Steroids. Unless China just turns Taiwan to ashes but what would China's invasion reasoning be? Would it be for the land or would it be for the technology? If it's the latter then a war makes zero sense because Taiwan would just blow up all their factories before China even stepped one foot on their land. I think that China is ran by a horrible regime but I also think China is smarter than Russia and will instead opt to try to influence countries through politics rather than brute force, that is unless the West abandons Ukraine and lets Russia take Ukraine, then I think we'll have a different conversation where China may be encouraged to make a move on Taiwan under the belief that the West wouldn't save them. As things stand right now, I don't believe that is the current future, China needs the West just as much as the West needs China, they're much more integrated with us than Russia ever was, we can get away with sanctioning Russia pretty easily but we wouldn't with China, but nor could China with us. I think China likes the smell of capitalism, Lol. They're surrounded by countries that dislike them. Many of whom have territorial disputes with China. Militaries today focus a lot more on air and naval force, China would have to invade via sea and air to reach Taiwan, which would likewise be protected by America's navy and air-force (and UK, Australia, Japan, etc.) and Taiwan's own. What reason would America have to perform a land invasion of China? And even if they did, the vast majority of the conflict would still be via the skies and seas. |
I think you will find that companies like TSMC also have plans in place to "scuttle" their factories and technology in the instance of an invasion as well... Plus they are solidifying their manufacturing by building new fabs in other regions of the world.
That does undermine the point of invading Taiwan to start with, unless China's goal was to disrupt semiconductor supply.
But.. That is also where Intel comes in, which is getting significant US Government support to build fabs in the USA to mitigate those risks.
On the other side of the equation... In the event of war, China's supply of resources will be disrupted, massively. - As China is a heavy importer of raw materials.
China sources the majority of Iron Ore from Australia, majority of it's Coal from Indonesia and Australia, Chile for Copper, Australia and Chile for Lithium and more.
China isn't resource independent yet, let alone energy independent... Once that flow of oil and coal stop, China's electricity output will be massively impacted.
I guess this is why Australia has been able to maneuver itself during the financial crisis and avoid recession, resources pay.
--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--
