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Forums - Politics Discussion - What do you think the future of global society looks like?

BFR said:

Pem: "And I would argue the USA lacks the ambition to reach for the stars these days as well."

We have two functioning rovers on Mars. Name me another country that has even one functioning rover on Mars.

Wanna go further than Mars?

"Voyager 1 is the most distant man-made object in space, currently 164.7 Astronomical Units (AU) from Earth. It's traveling at a speed of 38,026.79 miles per hour (17.0 kilometers per second) relative to the Sun."

What the US has done is incredibly impressive but those days are dying down, particularly putting a car chassis size rover on Mars eith a helicopter that was designed long before drones and the amazing JWTS which is such an amazing feat and moving an asteroid which didn't get the buzz it deserved. We moved a celestial body and it barely made news. Thing is, these things are often a decade behind in technology and planning stuff happening at NASA is a reflection of where the US was in 2014 rather than a reflection cause that's when it was planned and solidified. In my view private space companies have been doing more, Space X landing rockets. The Star link network. The blue origin fight etc. Same with robotics, private companies are impressing more than DARPA (of what we know). 



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"Are impressing more than DARPA (of what we know)."

Actually, there is one DARPA program that might interest you, it's called DRACO.

The Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations (DRACO) is an under-development spacecraft by Lockheed Martin in partnership with BWX Technologies as part of a DARPA program to be demonstrated in space in 2027. The experimental vehicle is planned to be reusable and will utilize next-generation nuclear thermal propulsion technology and low-enriched uranium.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstration_Rocket_for_Agile_Cislunar_Operations



BFR said:

"Are impressing more than DARPA (of what we know)."

Actually, there is one DARPA program that might interest you, it's called DRACO.

The Demonstration Rocket for Agile Cislunar Operations (DRACO) is an under-development spacecraft by Lockheed Martin in partnership with BWX Technologies as part of a DARPA program to be demonstrated in space in 2027. The experimental vehicle is planned to be reusable and will utilize next-generation nuclear thermal propulsion technology and low-enriched uranium.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demonstration_Rocket_for_Agile_Cislunar_Operations

I didn't know about this, it certainly will interest me, thank you. 



BFR said:
LegitHyperbole said:

Nuclear energy is so much safer these days. It's such a pity we aren't using it. Chinas over there building a thorium reactor and we're freezing grannies to death in the name of renewable energy.

Also, these thorium reactors exist at the experimental level today.  Just because something exists at the experimental stage today is no guarantee it will be commercially viable soon.

"By 2019 two of the reactors were under construction in the Gobi desert, with completion expected around 2025. China expects to put thorium reactors into commercial use by 2030."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power#China

https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Operating-permit-issued-for-Chinese-molten-salt-re

The Shanghai Institute of Applied Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences has been granted an operating licence for the experimental TMSR-LF1 thorium-powered molten-salt reactor, construction of which started in Wuwei city, Gansu province, in September 2018.

Construction of the TMSR-LF1 reactor began in September 2018 and was scheduled to be completed in 2024. However, it was reportedly completed in August 2021 after work was accelerated.

Build in half the time, got the license to run last year. It seems they're well on schedule.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-09-06/china-building-thorium-nuclear-power-station-gobi/104304468

Construction on the research facility is due to start next year with operation expected in 2030, followed by full-scale production.

According to the report, a prototype TMSR at the same location, which was designed to produce 2 megawatts of thermal energy but no actual electricity, achieved criticality in October last year.

Building on the results of the prototype, the new facility will produce 60MW of heat that will be used to generate 10MW of electricity and hydrogen as part of a larger renewable and low-carbon energy research hub.


It's going a lot faster than Nuclear Fusion research.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-scientists-repeat-fusion-power-breakthrough-ft-2023-08-06/
They're at the stage they have proven you can actually gain energy.

Looks like Thorium reactors will be a handy stop gap until Nuclear Fusion reactors become affordable to build.



BFR said:

Pem: "And I would argue the USA lacks the ambition to reach for the stars these days as well."

We have two functioning rovers on Mars. Name me another country that has even one functioning rover on Mars.

Wanna go further than Mars?

"Voyager 1 is the most distant man-made object in space, currently 164.7 Astronomical Units (AU) from Earth. It's traveling at a speed of 38,026.79 miles per hour (17.0 kilometers per second) relative to the Sun."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhurong_(rover)

China landed a functioning rover on Mars years ago. If your point is that China isn’t capable of this sort of technology, this proves you wrong.



I describe myself as a little dose of toxic masculinity.

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Jumpin said:
BFR said:

Pem: "And I would argue the USA lacks the ambition to reach for the stars these days as well."

We have two functioning rovers on Mars. Name me another country that has even one functioning rover on Mars.

Wanna go further than Mars?

"Voyager 1 is the most distant man-made object in space, currently 164.7 Astronomical Units (AU) from Earth. It's traveling at a speed of 38,026.79 miles per hour (17.0 kilometers per second) relative to the Sun."

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zhurong_(rover)

China landed a functioning rover on Mars years ago. If your point is that China isn’t capable of this sort of technology, this proves you wrong.

I know all about that rover. My point is that only the USA has functioning rovers on Mars today.

Curiosity - Landed on August 6, 2012

Perserverance - Landed on Feb. 18, 2021

Zhurong - Landed on May 14, 2021 and lasted for about 1 year

No other country has been able to land and operate a rover on Mars.



LegitHyperbole said:

Nuclear energy is so much safer these days. It's such a pity we aren't using it. Chinas over there building a thorium reactor and we're freezing grannies to death in the name of renewable energy.

LegitHyperbole said:

Problem solved. 

China is learning renewables aren't all positives and have their drawbacks, at least with today's tech. Maybe in the future they'll be able to solve it with new and advanced tech or even changing social norms. (video related)

If nuclear can be made even safer than the safest version the world has now, along with keeping the initial construction costs reasonable or lower, it's definitely what they should be focusing on long term, with everything else propping up the system for the time being. Unless other energy sources become much more efficient too, because then we might as well implement whatever makes sense wherever we can. Too much energy production is never a problem as long as you can get it where it needs to go for cheap enough.



In the next 50 years:

USA won't change much, their distance from other countries prevent mass migration and overall the country have a good rates of childbirth for a developed country. Their economy is really solid, and even if they lose prestige and importance to China they will be a solid #2 economy 

Latin America will stagnate due to low birthrates and issues to make a demographic transition with nations getting old without getting rich first. Latam nations are likely to keep above average HDI but won't become wealthy nations. Climate changes will hit Latam terribly. Lack of infrastructure and overall warmer climate will make their economic suffer a lot (remember a big part of Latam economy is based on agriculture)

Europe will become more and more Muslim, the Muslims in few decades will become a political force and some of progressive politics in Europe are likely to be overwritten. Economies will crumble, as Europe can't keep up with Asia. Probably will become a poorer continent. Not poor, but poorer

Africa will show some progress but will keep being the poorest continent by far. Overpopulation and lack of decent infrastructure will prevent them to become developed. Just like LATAM I think Africa will be hit the hardest by climate changes, with large non productive areas and deserts, I don't see a very bright future for them...

Middle East will become an interesting case of a developed theocracy. Kinda like a dystopia. People will not have freedom and the country will keep being extremely backwards (for western POV), but the nations themselves will be mostly wealthy and people will live well there even without "freedom"

East/Southeast Asia is soon becoming the center of the world. All the futuristic things you imagine for society will be there. China is soon becoming the world largest economy and India will follow suit. Proximity with rich developed countries will prevent Japan and Korea from crumbling. SEA countries now average in development will become fully developed, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines I think all will rich high HDI. Demographic issues will also hit them, but their population is already so large they are likely to survive it better than LATAM



IcaroRibeiro said:

In the next 50 years:

USA won't change much, their distance from other countries prevent mass migration and overall the country have a good rates of childbirth for a developed country. Their economy is really solid, and even if they lose prestige and importance to China they will be a solid #2 economy 

Latin America will stagnate due to low birthrates and issues to make a demographic transition with nations getting old without getting rich first. Latam nations are likely to keep above average HDI but won't become wealthy nations. Climate changes will hit Latam terribly. Lack of infrastructure and overall warmer climate will make their economic suffer a lot (remember a big part of Latam economy is based on agriculture)

Europe will become more and more Muslim, the Muslims in few decades will become a political force and some of progressive politics in Europe are likely to be overwritten. Economies will crumble, as Europe can't keep up with Asia. Probably will become a poorer continent. Not poor, but poorer

Africa will show some progress but will keep being the poorest continent by far. Overpopulation and lack of decent infrastructure will prevent them to become developed. Just like LATAM I think Africa will be hit the hardest by climate changes, with large non productive areas and deserts, I don't see a very bright future for them...

Middle East will become an interesting case of a developed theocracy. Kinda like a dystopia. People will not have freedom and the country will keep being extremely backwards (for western POV), but the nations themselves will be mostly wealthy and people will live well there even without "freedom"

East/Southeast Asia is soon becoming the center of the world. All the futuristic things you imagine for society will be there. China is soon becoming the world largest economy and India will follow suit. Proximity with rich developed countries will prevent Japan and Korea from crumbling. SEA countries now average in development will become fully developed, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Philippines I think all will rich high HDI. Demographic issues will also hit them, but their population is already so large they are likely to survive it better than LATAM



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Last edited by LegitHyperbole - on 25 September 2024