AtlasIntel received a high rating just like Trafalgar because they overweighted Trump in 2020, which turned out to be the correct move. Unlike Trafalgar, however, they didn't make themselves absolute fools in 2022 with the same strategy and lost their rating only because they didn't poll the midterms.

AtlasIntel has sucked in Brazil this year and plenty of other elections worldwide these past years. Like most shady pollsters who don't give away their methodology and deliver results in 2-3 days, they most likely cook the books and sell results to the highest bidder.

It's not worth paying any attention to them whatsoever.

They also say Trump will win among women in Arizona, will win 25% of the black vote in Georgia, will win 49.7% of the Asian vote there, 48.5% of Urban voters in Michigan, 40% of the black vote there, and that Kamala Harris is barely winning among women. 

The problem with fivethirtyeight is that it there's just not enough time. Say, 10 pollsters start up in the 2020 cycle. 5 of them are dead wrong. 2 of them are right because they are good pollsters. 3 of them are right because of pure luck. 

Now, the 3 that were right based on luck can release polls every other day like Atlas Intel is doing and can singlehandedly skew the polls by at least half a point. And even though they're putting out things that clearly don't make sense. And they could to a large extent shape the narrative. 

Yeah. As I see it we are in an area where everything is in an area of margin of error for the pollsters. So I personally withhold strong judgment until the actual votes are tallied. I wouldn't say things show a clear tendency for either side. But we'll see.

Yeah, in order for me to believe this massive shift in black voters, there would need to be a specific, major event causing it.

The shift in women makes sense because the Dobbs decision and restrictive abortion laws in red states (some even going after IVF), along with Vance’s statements about childless cat ladies and Trump’s court cases with E Jean Carroll & Stormy Daniels. Just a series of events over the last few years showing that the Republican Party treats women as lesser.

As for black voters, it’s not like Republicans have done any major outreach towards them or that Democrats have pushed any anti-black legislation or rhetoric. I know there has been a general shift rightward among young men regardless of race, but that shouldn’t be causing this big of a shift. Basically this would be the biggest shift in black voter habits since the Civil Rights Era and that just doesn’t make any sense because there is no specific cause.

Isn’t Trump “Exploiting You for Votes?” Mehdi Challenges Imam Who Endorsed Trump

In this episode of ‘Mehdi Unfiltered,’ Mehdi Hasan interviews Imam Belal Alzuhairi of the Great Mosque in Hamtramck, Michigan, just days after Alzuhairi announced his endorsement of Donald Trump for president at a rally in Michigan.

During the interview, Mehdi challenges Imam Alzuhairi on whether Trump can be trusted or considered “the peace candidate.” Alzuhairi contends that Trump promised to end the war in Gaza.

Imam Alzuhairi defends his controversial decision to support Trump in this lively exchange, stating that the Democratic Party is taking the Muslim vote for granted and “does not have any regard for us as Muslims.”


In reaction to this last weekend
https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/26/politics/muslim-leaders-michigan-trump-endorse/index.html

Nice but don't get too confident.

Interestingly virtually every article on Fox News yesterday was about garbage. Now almost nothing on their front page. They do have an article about how Trump's comments about putting Liz Cheney before a firing squad was taken out of context by the media. Suddenly context is very important.

Guess they figured making this campaign about rhetoric is not a good thing for their great leader.

This seems like the kind of thing that should be ridiculously good for Democrats in Georgia.

Oh look, PredictIt (one of those famous betting markets) is about to flip back to Harris 🫠

Not that I care, but how quickly they change, Lol.

I remain humble, that's why I am not predicting 350+ electoral votes for Harris.