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And one of the best pollsters in Michigan has Harris ahead.
Michigan EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press
— umichvoter 🏳️🌈 (@umichvoter) November 1, 2024
Final poll
🔵 Kamala Harris 48% (+3)
🔴 Donald Trump 45%
🔵 Elissa Slotkin 47% (+5)
🔴 Mike Rogers 42%
And the most accurate pollster for PA in 22 has Harris ahead.
While this does not mean they'll be accurate again, a reminder that they were the only pollster this late in the game who essentially not only nailed the PA SEN '22 race by margin, but toplines too. pic.twitter.com/ZcIWapZ7Kx
— Joshua Smithley (@blockedfreq) November 1, 2024
Doesn't mean they'll be right but it's easy to find very, very reputable pollsters with Harris leading. Atlas Intel overestimated Marine Le Pen's vote share in the French elections by 15 points but because they got the 2020 elections correct, they're heavily weighted. They also missed the Chile Presidential elections by 10 points. Personally I think Atlas is too new to consider them highly reliable, 2020 could have just been them getting lucky. They aren't even good in their home country (Brazil) where they got Mayoral races way off.
Look at their crosstabs for their recent poll on the 31st.
For Wisconsin they have Trump winning 62% of the Black vote...Trump winning 40% of the Black vote in Michigan but Biden exit polls were 92% of the Black vote in Michigan in 2020. They have Trump at 24% of the Black vote in Pennsylvania while Biden exit polls had it at 92%...Yeah, I have big doubts here that they're getting Trump's black voter % correct.
