Somehow you forgot that preorders exist and the closer to the release date we get and the hype grows more people will get their console. My best guess is that Take-Two is in constant contact with both Sony and Microsoft about their roadmap. It's in their best interest that everyone wanting to play their game is able to, after all. We shouldn't forget that both console manufacturers have royalty agreements with Take-Two. So, yeah, Sony would need to screw up royally to leave anything but crumbs for Microsoft regarding the GTA VI launch.

The thing is, Microsoft doesn't give a damn about console sales anymore. There were no sales last quarter and stock is at minimums so I wouldn't be surprised if they see them as a liability going forward because they lose so much with each unit sold with nothing in return. Selling consoles just for playing GTA VI maybe isn't in their best interest after giving up on the hardware side. And I don't know what else you'd call it after having no sales nor stock for the holidays.

For GTA VI I think Microsoft will be plenty happy if Sony doesn't score a home run. They can't do much else but watch at this point.

There is a real chance that they will miss that mark. Seeing how bullishly they entered this generation with massive studio acquisitions, this is a shocker. Still, not bad for a 3rd party publisher, I guess.

There's no way 45 million people will buy GTA V in its first week

A more realistic estimate would be around 25 million. While GTA V has reportedly "sold" 205 million copies, a significant portion of those are from PC players who never owned consoles, free copies, discounted purchases, and so on. Even in 2014 one and half year after the launch, out of the 45 million copies sold at that time, roughly 25% were re-purchases. GTA fans are well-known for owning multiple copies of the game.

GTA V primarily appeals to casual gamers who enjoy its multiplayer features. If it were free-to-play, it could potentially attract 100 million players. However, being limited to expensive next-gen consoles and launching at a premium price point (likely $80) will significantly cap its initial sales. Once the game launches on PC with better mod support, enhanced multiplayer options, and other updates it's likely to surpass 100 million copies sold. Most of GTA consistent player engagment comes from the fact it's almost like an live service that gets multiple free DLCs, this provides extended shelf life for the game which is how it has been selling so well after that many years

It's not selling 45 million in a single week. People "wanting" to get it at week 1 =/= opening sales. More than half of them having no current gen console automatically slashes the number down to about half. So your 25 million guess is in fact a tad higher than mine.

GTA6 should sell millions of consoles to PC and PS4/Xbox One gamers who are yet to upgrade. The great majority of PC gamers will wait for the PC version, but a few million of them won't, and a few million are multi-platform gamers already. PC gamers who own or are interested in consoles as secondary platforms won't wait for the PC version.

This is actually really in doubt. The thing is, I would automatically assume it would reach 40 due simply to GTA... but there is now even doubt that Microsoft will even provide the stock. I have heard rumors of Microsoft removing stock across Europe and other regions. So before we can even begin to have this conversation, we have to know if Microsoft will even provide that many units period.

Microsoft killed off Xbox One hardware manufacturing by time Xbox Series launched (which they didn't confirm until a year later), despite the fact that they could've eeked out a few more million Xbox One consoles and hit 60 million units lifetime.

I totally buy that they're already decreasing Xbox Series manufacturing a lot and will probably discontinue it at Xbox 5's launch or shortly after. That is unless they want to keep Series S in stock as a low-budget option (especially for kids or families) because it will probably be under $300 regularly by then even with price cuts not really a thing anymore. 

https://www.nowinstock.net/videogaming/consoles/microsoftxboxseriesx/
https://www.windowscentral.com/gaming/xbox/the-uk-and-other-regions-are-running-suspiciously-low-on-xbox-series-x-console
https://metro.co.uk/2024/12/18/xbox-denies-quitting-europe-report-claims-no-xbox-series-x-stock-poland-22212111/
https://metro.co.uk/2024/10/11/microsoft-responds-reports-xbox-pulling-saudi-arabia-21778746/
https://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/xbox/forum/all/no-availability-of-xbox-series-x-in-india/4ef7b090-894b-42a4-9ffc-4e9ad6cc6212

Stock seems to be under minimums everywhere.

Spoiler: It's not because they are setting up XCloud blades or the demand is overwhelming.

Content removed.

If Microsoft hadn't already confirmed that they're working on a next gen console, I might have assumed that they're done with traditional console hardware after this generation.

Still... I'm asking myself if they really are making a new "console" or just starting a series of Xbox-branded closed PC's, and maybe converting Xbox store to a Steam-like service. Wouldn't surprise me if Sony too launches a Steam-like store of their own in a decade or so, but obviously they'll tread more carefully.

The Xbox Series X/S faces an uphill battle to reach 40 million units. While it has a strong library and Game Pass, it's consistently outsold by the PlayStation 5. Factors like strong competition and a reliance on Game Pass subscriptions may hinder its ability to achieve that sales milestone.