Will Xbox Series X/S make it to 40 million?

[Kyuu]

Esparadrapo said:

Kyuu said:

GTA is about 7 times bigger now than it was before GTA5's launch. 4 million units a month isn't gonna be enough for a game capable of selling a lot more than Xbox and Playstation combined (remember it's not releasing on PC at launch, enhancing its console selling power). MS would be dumb not to take this opportunity. We also shouldn't rule out that they will win the marketing rights, but I don't think that's necessary.

GTA6 will be the most significant game launch in history and by a huge margin.

The reason MS stopped doing these kinds of deals is because the results were underwhelming and the PS5 dominated regardless. You can't sell what people just don't want, no many were hyped for the Series S. However Series X/S with GTA6 is something people are prepared to buy even if the console doesn't interest them much. When Sony struggled with stock, Series X/S was doing okay, decent enough to mislead people into thinking it was doing great and stealing mindshare. If PS5 keeps selling out, GTA fans will want an Xbox, and Xbox sales could explode for a few months.

Do you understand that you are basing all your assumptions on Microsoft not being dumb and Sony somehow screwing up the biggest launch of the generation? And even then, with Microsoft stocking far over a year's worth of units, they'd be there for the crumbs. Sony can stock up for GTA VI as if it was BF/holiday season or even more depending on the hype and they'd still sell them sooner or later. Microsoft just can't do that, they'd risk sitting with unsold inventory for quarters upon quarters if not forever.

The supply chain is not all up to Sony. There is a limit to how many components anyone can buy per month, and how many console units retailers can store. It's a supply and logistics challenge. The demand for GTA will be too high even if Sony does everything right. I estimate there will be about 45 million fans willing to get the game on week 1, over half of them don't have a current gen console. Demand is not going to be met close to release, it's an impossible task, especially in November and December where console sales surge without the GTA factor.

It's not going to be as bad as COVID mind you, but I expect a short period of everything selling out in most regions, and Microsoft should take advantage of this. They may be dumb when it comes to hardware, but not THAT dumb! They don't need to produce as many consoles as Sony (GTA's appeal on Xbox has a lower limit than on Playstation for obvious reasons) but it should be enough to allow Xbox sales to go up year over year.

Microsoft can even opt to go crazy and outbid Sony for chips again, but I don't see it. Too risky and unnecessary.