Not even that many since once the December data gets added it should be at about 32.5m for only 7.5m left to go from now. Some people are acting as if it's only at 25m or something like that with the confidence of it failing to reach 40m.

As far as I'm aware, XBSX hasn't even cross 30mil *shipped*...and from everything I've heard, Aldora Intelligence has a solid record.

That was for the end of June and this person who closely tracks this sort of thing estimated over 30m by the end of July so there's various estimates out there that vary somewhat. I'll stick to what VGChartz has for making projections since they're never really that far off the mark. Their Xbox One estimates were close enough for me to trust that their Xbox Series estimates are close enough.

i see. Would be nice of Microsoft just released the figures. These estimates 28.3mil v. >30mil v. >32mil are vastly different from one another. Makes projecting 40mil very difficult to call. (Though I remain adament that GTAVI will send >5mil XBSX off store shelves during Q3F'26, alongside strong legs going into 2026...hence, I do anticipate over 40mil, though maybe not by a massive amount.)

Finally updated my prediction that Xbox Series will barely hit 40 million units. And if sales don't pick up much from GTA VI, I might have to adjust it to 37-38 million.
I know even going into this generation we know Microsoft was focusing more on Microsoft Gaming than Xbox as a brand and hardware, but I could not have predicted many of their choices. Xbox Series had the strong potential to surpass Xbox One at the start and has squandered that. Xbox does not have the install base, especially outside of the USA to push enough people to buy a console that is essentially a much more powerful Xbox One with almost no identity of its own. I think Microsoft is too arrogant to make Xbox Series their last console after they've already confirmed they're working on its successor. But there is a very good chance the fifth Xbox is the last one.

Well the 30m was by the end of July so by now I would imagine it's over 32m shipped according to his estimates. I actually think most people are overestimating the impact GTA 6 will have on hardware sales due to how late in the generation it's releasing but it's still absolutely gonna have a significant impact the period it comes out so should cause a big surge in Series S sales since that cheap to play GTA 6 will be worth it for a lot of people even if that version ends up being poor. As a result I think the decline in 2025 should be a lot smaller with it doing at least 4m this year.

 People really doom and gloom consoles every time they are down YoY. The only way for Xbox fail to meet 40 million units is Microsoft releasing its sucessor by the end of 2026

There were no fire sales this December.

It's also been out of stock selling just 767K units in November. Even if there was a demand they couldn't meet it to mirror Nov and Dec last year.

Yeah as I said at the start of this thread a lot of people overreacted to its good first couple years but a lot are now overreacting in the opposite direction. Even with a November 2026 release I'd say 40m is still happening unless it's notably overtracked on here.

I already took that into account by estimating about 1.3m for December compared to 1.8m last year.

The supply chain is not all up to Sony. There is a limit to how many components anyone can buy per month, and how many console units retailers can store. It's a supply and logistics challenge. The demand for GTA will be too high even if Sony does everything right. I estimate there will be about 45 million fans willing to get the game on week 1, over half of them don't have a current gen console. Demand is not going to be met close to release, it's an impossible task, especially in November and December where console sales surge without the GTA factor.

It's not going to be as bad as COVID mind you, but I expect a short period of everything selling out in most regions, and Microsoft should take advantage of this. They may be dumb when it comes to hardware, but not THAT dumb! They don't need to produce as many consoles as Sony (GTA's appeal on Xbox has a lower limit than on Playstation for obvious reasons) but it should be enough to allow Xbox sales to go up year over year.

Microsoft can even opt to go crazy and outbid Sony for chips again, but I don't see it. Too risky and unnecessary.