I think releasing day 1 on PC would have less impact on overall sales, and more on PS vs PC splits. Which isn't really good for SquareEnix because Sony's money/marketing would be out of the equation. The reason I think Square is distancing itself from AAA exclusives going forward, is because Sony (and Epic Games?) no longer sees much value in the IP or in SquareEnix in general, and won't pay much for a timed exclusivity anymore. The other reason is Switch 2 will probably be able to play scaled back PS5 games without high extra costs.

As for fragmenting the game. Honestly, I think I prefer that from an experience perspective (I enjoyed Remake and especially Rebirth a lot, minus the story bs). But it does feel like a really bad decision from a market perspective. If FF6 is ever to get a similar treatment (let me dream), I'd still want it to be a two part Remake rather than just one game.

If half of the console sales are from Switch I will give a 25% to 35% split on post launch sales, as we nee to account for PC sales as well not included on UK charts 

The game sold 22 million in 2023, with 2 million copies from Christmas. I guess it was sitting on 19 million before Switch release and has ever since moved additional 5 million 

With a 25% to 35% total for those 5 million for Switch means Switch version sits between 1.25 million copies and 1.75 million copies. Read: Between 6 and 8% of its total sales, which was what I asked in my post

I don't believe a late port with very downgrade graphics will past anywhere over the 10% total sales on Switch 2 hence why don't think Rebirth will sell anything more than sub-400k copies but alas, we have to wait and see 

Point is, 400k may be enough to cover development costs and make a bit of profit but not to salvage the game and even less so to cover the free money and marketing Sony used to give to Square

It would do substantially more than 300k-400k. 

The Witcher III port on Switch sold 700k in 2 months in 2019, probably is well past 1.5 million, could be possibly 2-3 million+ at this point. And keep in mind that was a *full price* release of a game that was 4 years old. 

It's not that easy to get data on specific Switch titles since companies tend to often just lump all versions of games together, but you can see things like the recent Capcom sales list we can see

Resident Evil 6 sold 1 million on the Switch alone. Now lets get this straight this is a port of an old-ass RE game (released in 2012) that isn't even that critically acclaimed. 

Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arise (which isn't even a new game but a remake of the PS3 game) sold 1.1 million on Switch alone. It sold 2.4 million on PS4 + XB1 but also was available on those systems for several extra years. So Switch was able to sell about 30% of this release's sales while have 2 fewer years to sell that much in. That's not too shabby for a remake of a PS3 game that was a niche title. 

If Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arise can sell 1.1 million on the Switch, I'd have to think games like Final Fantasy VII Remake/Rebirth, Kingdom Hearts IV, etc. would beat or at least match that. 

Yeah I own the first one on xbox but not the second one. Thats the big issue, they probably will release it eventually on xbox like they promised but it is going to be full priced while on sale for 15 €/$ on other platforms. 

Evergreen Capcom titles that sell well over 10 million copies moving 1 million copies on Switch should not be an indicative on how FF will sell

Rebirth is having trouble selling 1.75 million on PS5 (half of what remake did)

It's totally not selling 1 million on Switch. I'll be surprised if it sells half of that

That is a fair point.  Don't get me wrong I still think Square is not taking taking full advantage of PC.  However, you are correct about the general health of the franchise.  It is almost like Square needs to reboot the series.    

I guess it depends on what kind of “downgrade” a potential VII Rebirth port would look like on a console thats potentially stronger and newer tech than a PS4/4 Pro, which had VII Remake. 

Unless theres a noted falloff from the Switch 1 audience to the Switch 2 audience in regards to supporting JRPGs, I do not see why Rebirth, if marketed well and looks good enough, cannot reach 1 million units sold on Switch 2. I know third party games sell better on PS, but I think the Switch has done well for itself in regards to third party success.

But these aren't 10 million sellers really. 

Dragon's Dogma Dark Arisen sold 2.4 million on PS4 + XB1 and another 1.1 million on Switch, so Switch is 30% of the sales between the 3 platforms

Resident Evil 6 re-release port sold 3 million on PS4 + XB1 (released in 2016) and another 1 million on Switch (released in 2019), now also understand the Switch version came out 3 years after the PS4/XB1 ports, and we are also talking about a 2012 game releasing on Switch all the way in 2019. 

1 million is really not much on Switch, there are tons of Switch 3rd party games crossing 1 million+ all the time.

Monster Hunter Stories 2 has sold 2.9 million, probably not a stretch to suggest 1 million of that would be from the Switch. 

I believe Resident Evil Revelations Collection also sold 1.4 million copies on Switch and that isn't a 10 million seller either. 

I don't think it will do that overnight, but with time I think it would get to 1 million. The Switch moves a ton of software, there's lots of 3rd party games making good money on it and selling slowly but surely as every month goes on. 

They have no choice anyway, because if Square does not build a bigger net for the FF7 Remake series ... it means FF7 Remake Part III is going to sell even less than Rebirth because you're not going to get 100% of the people from the PS5 to buy Part III. There will be some drop off. You need customers from other platforms to hop on board the saga and give you a bigger base to build from. 

You know what sucks worse than only 1.75-2 million in initial sales? Even less than that for FF7 Remake Part III. 

If you are talking about Darken Arise it also sold an additional 3.9 million copies with its PS3/X360 version. The version that came to PS4/XBONE was 4 years old already 

The same point holds true for RE 6, over 9 million sold on PS3/X360

You're comparing Switch port sales with PS4/Xbone port sales. Those games were also old when they came to last gen consoles (RE6 was 4 years old), granted, Switch version came 3 years later the porcentage keeps heavily favoring Sony and MS version 

Switch notably have much higher percentages from third party for IPs that are historically present in Nintendo platforms, notably Monster Hunter and Dragon Quest. But games heavily associated to Playstation are likely to keep much higher sales percentage on Playstation, which is why I think 400k is the ceiling for Rebirth on Switch 2 if it's ever get a release 

Regardless, I agree Square needs to go multiplat even if it's just because Sony is no longer buying exclusivity, but this will not increase Final Fantasy sales substantially

I still think Rebirth will easily clear 5 million when all is said an done. Might even get close to that on Playstation alone (too optimistic, I know). PC and Switch 2 versions each can pass a million, and an Xbox version could add some 400k.

This game will get a number of sales boosts from ports, price drops, GOTY awards (hopefully), and a final boost when the 3rd and final part arrives.

A reminder that FF7 Remake is actually the 2nd best selling FF in the US (dollar sale) behind FF15 and ahead of original FF7. Rebirth may not match that, but it will have the advantage of having a Switch 2 version, a better word of mouth, and more room for effective pricecuts. Remake will also be ported to Switch 2, which may bring its total sales to over 8 million, and for all we know could put US totals over FF15's.