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IcaroRibeiro on 22 May 2024
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curl-6 said:
IcaroRibeiro said:

I guess any number can be considered either good or bad depending on whether you want the outlook to be positive or not 

The Witcher probably sold what, 5% of its total sales on Switch? What about Hogwats Legacy? 8%?

Both results can be considered acceptable because the games in question are massive success to begin with, so any additional copy is pure profit at this point

The case of Final Fantasy is much more severe. It's a franchise that is having problem to sell even as low as 4 million copies. If anything Switch can bring is a pitiful 300-400k extra copies (which is precisely how much I think it will bring) the IP will still having problems surviving. Maybe enough to break even port costs, hardly enough to help the IP make profits 

Hogwarts on Switch made up a substantial portion of sales, more than half some weeks on the UK charts:

https://www.nintendolife.com/news/2024/02/uk-charts-top-three-receive-another-shake-up-but-mario-stands-firm (53% this Feb)

Hogwarts had the third biggest launch of a Switch game in 2023 behind only Mario and Zelda:

https://www.reddit.com/r/NintendoSwitch/comments/17zuk8t/christopher_dring_a_huge_surge_in_sales_of/

As for FF7, it would almost certainly do more than 300-400k. Nintendo has cultivated an audience that loves JRPGs.

If half of the console sales are from Switch I will give a 25% to 35% split on post launch sales, as we nee to account for PC sales as well not included on UK charts 

The game sold 22 million in 2023, with 2 million copies from Christmas. I guess it was sitting on 19 million before Switch release and has ever since moved additional 5 million 

With a 25% to 35% total for those 5 million for Switch means Switch version sits between 1.25 million copies and 1.75 million copies. Read: Between 6 and 8% of its total sales, which was what I asked in my post

I don't believe a late port with very downgrade graphics will past anywhere over the 10% total sales on Switch 2 hence why don't think Rebirth will sell anything more than sub-400k copies but alas, we have to wait and see 

Point is, 400k may be enough to cover development costs and make a bit of profit but not to salvage the game and even less so to cover the free money and marketing Sony used to give to Square