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Forums - Nintendo Discussion - Should we consider Switch successor as 10th Gen?

 

Which Generation would you consider the Switch Successor?

9th Generation 21 36.21%
 
10th Generation 37 63.79%
 
Total:58
HoloDust said:
KLXVER said:

I think you mean the Famicom started the 3rd in 1983.

ColecoVision started 3rd in 1982.

Then in 1983 you have SEGA SG1000 (which is pretty much the same hardware as ColecoVision) and Nintendo Famicom (which was directly influenced by ColecoVision, as per designers).

Colecovision is 2nd gen. At least according to Wikipedia. Im not very familiar with that console.



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RolStoppable said:

Of course it will be tenth generation in the established system. It's the successor to the ninth-gen Switch which was the successor to the eighth-gen 3DS and Wii U.

Nowadays even the proponents for classifying Switch as eighth gen have to agree that Switch belongs in the same generation as the PS5 and Xbox Series, because their popular main argument was that Switch will have spent more of its lifetime competing with the PS4 and XB1 than the PS5 and XS. Subsequently, Switch's successor will spend most of its lifetime competing against the PS6 and whatever's left of Xbox.

The real main reason why Switch was classified as eighth gen by many was that they wanted to hand Nintendo a loss in at least some form after Sony had to exit the handheld space. Since the argument that Nintendo had exited the home console space was unsustainable, the next best thing was to say that Nintendo lost so bad that they had to launch two consoles in the same generation.

Yeah, I remember they saying if we follow the successor as the mark of the beginning of a new gen we would also have a messy timeline because Switch would be replaced by 2022 and its successor would compete most of its time with PS5 and XSeries. By 2026 it would be 2 generations discrepancy with that reasoning.

Two years after 2022 and probably still one year left to see something about Switch's successor... 



 

 

We reap what we sow

I do not consider Switch in the 9th gen (due to the lack of 8th gen games it gets/has difficulty playing properly)


I expect Switch 2 won't have have the same issue getting current gen (9th) games ported to it.
So it should be a proper 9th gen console.
(There is an argument for Switch 2 being a 10th gen handheld though.)

I don't think there's a point in inventing a 10th gen yet there won't be any games I'll categorize as such until PS6/Xbox Next.
We haven't even really gotten to 9th gen games being standard yet due to how long cross gen games with PS4 has lasted.

Last edited by Hiku - on 20 February 2024

It is of course completely arbitrary what the boundaries of a generation is, so there is no finite answer. However, I don't buy the argument that it being a successor to a previous system brings it one generation ahead, then if a company were to release systems all the time they would be in gen 20 in no time. The point of the generation term is to compare system from the same "era", which can be interpreted as timeframe, but also more by technological features.

So if we take the Switch here are the parameters I would look consider as most important, and which generation I would put it in based on said parameter:

In terms of horse power, which gen is it closest to: 7th gen

In terms of technology overall, which gen is it closest to: Tegra X1 is 2015 tech, so newer than 8th gen competitors, but not by much: 8th gen

Of competing systems, which launch dates is it closer to: 8th gen

Which gen of systems was it intended to compete against: Debatable, but probably 8th gen

Which gen of systems did it end up sharing most of its lifetime with: 9th gen

In terms of multiplats, which gen did it share most games with: 8th gen

The Switch is therefore an 8th gen system.

Based on the rumours the Switch 2 will be...

In terms of horse power, which gen is it closest to: Very difficult to guess, probably right between 8th and 9th, 8th/9th gen

In terms of technology overall, which gen is it closest to: Nvidia seems to make a brand new chip-set, so 2025 tech: 10th gen

Of competing systems, which launch dates is it closer to: May depend on when in 2025 it releases, but even if it releases early, it will probably be closer to 10th gen

Which gen of systems was it intended to compete against: Debatable, but since Nintendo allows the Switch such a long life, probably 10th gen

Which gen of systems did it end up sharing most of its lifetime with: Hard to guees, but 10th gen seems more likely

In terms of multiplats, which gen did it share most games with: Even harder to to guess given the expanded support of legacy systems, I have no idea.

So Switch 2 will likely be a 10th gen system if it releases in 2025, meaning Nintendo has two 8th gen systems, but "skips" the 9th gen entirely. Considering that they also had a 1st gen system, but none in the 2nd, it is not unprecedented.



Vinther1991 said:

It is of course completely arbitrary what the boundaries of a generation is, so there is no finite answer. However, I don't buy the argument that it being a successor to a previous system brings it one generation ahead, then if a company were to release systems all the time they would be in gen 20 in no time. The point of the generation term is to compare system from the same "era", which can be interpreted as timeframe, but also more by technological features.

So if we take the Switch here are the parameters I would look consider as most important, and which generation I would put it in based on said parameter:

In terms of horse power, which gen is it closest to: 7th gen

In terms of technology overall, which gen is it closest to: Tegra X1 is 2015 tech, so newer than 8th gen competitors, but not by much: 8th gen

Of competing systems, which launch dates is it closer to: 8th gen

Which gen of systems was it intended to compete against: Debatable, but probably 8th gen

Which gen of systems did it end up sharing most of its lifetime with: 9th gen

In terms of multiplats, which gen did it share most games with: 8th gen

The Switch is therefore an 8th gen system.

Based on the rumours the Switch 2 will be...

In terms of horse power, which gen is it closest to: Very difficult to guess, probably right between 8th and 9th, 8th/9th gen

In terms of technology overall, which gen is it closest to: Nvidia seems to make a brand new chip-set, so 2025 tech: 10th gen

Of competing systems, which launch dates is it closer to: May depend on when in 2025 it releases, but even if it releases early, it will probably be closer to 10th gen

Which gen of systems was it intended to compete against: Debatable, but since Nintendo allows the Switch such a long life, probably 10th gen

Which gen of systems did it end up sharing most of its lifetime with: Hard to guees, but 10th gen seems more likely

In terms of multiplats, which gen did it share most games with: Even harder to to guess given the expanded support of legacy systems, I have no idea.

So Switch 2 will likely be a 10th gen system if it releases in 2025, meaning Nintendo has two 8th gen systems, but "skips" the 9th gen entirely. Considering that they also had a 1st gen system, but none in the 2nd, it is not unprecedented.

I love your look into this. Great job!

It reminds me of computer companies that skip the number 9. Apple never released an iPhone 9, and Microsoft never released Windows 9. And that is totally okay that Nintendo skips a generation of gaming. Nintendo is still receiving bank for their 8th gen console. And competing very well against the 9th gen consoles too.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

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KLXVER said:
JackHandy said:

It is objectively ninth gen, but a lot of people want to classify it tenth... for some odd reason. Personally, I don't understand it, because that means what, Nintendo released two ninth gen consoles? lol. It makes no sense. A gen is simply a successor. It has nothing to do with power/tech etc.

Did you change your mind mid-sentence or what?

Haha!

Swap eighth for ninth and ninth for tenth, yeesh. My brain is fried lately. 



NPD/Circana seems to consider "current-gen" to be any system that's currently on the market but hasn't been replaced yet. They considered the Switch current-gen when it was nominal competition against the PS4 & XBO, and they apparently still consider it current-gen now that its nominal competition is the PS5 & XBS. In other words, it's both Gen 8 & Gen 9. Assuming that holds, the Switch 2 will be Gen 9 until the PS6 & Xbox 5 release, at which point it'll be a Gen 10 system.

Honestly, the only reason we still use "generations" is because from the NES on up through last generation, all notable home consoles were cohorts with each other and almost always exhibited clear jumps in power over previous systems. The confusion sets in both for pre-Crash of '83 systems and for post-Wii U Nintendo consoles.

The Atari 2600 was the dominant console from the late 70s on up through 1983, but there was also the 5200 as well as other systems that didn't pop up until the very early 80s like the Intellivision and ColecoVision. They all offered about the same type of gameplay experiences, but the 2600 was weaker than the others, though it still set the pace. They all competed directly with each other, and the 5200 was meant to serve as a companion to the 2600, but the highly staggered releases gives enough wiggle room for people to argue whether the pre-Crash cartridge-based consoles were one or two generations.

Meanwhile, the Wii U's failure meant Nintendo had to expedite its successor. Instead of releasing in, say, holiday 2018 or 2019, their next system released in March 2017, about halfway through the life cycle of the PS4 & XBO, fully three years and eight months before the PS5 & XBS were released. Because this system was successful and had a normal lifespan, Nintendo is kind of stuck releasing systems right in the middle of the life cycles of the current PlayStation & Xbox consoles. That provides all sorts of wiggle room for people to argue.



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In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

Shadow1980 said:

NPD/Circana seems to consider "current-gen" to be any system that's currently on the market but hasn't been replaced yet. They considered the Switch current-gen when it was nominal competition against the PS4 & XBO, and they apparently still consider it current-gen now that its nominal competition is the PS5 & XBS. In other words, it's both Gen 8 & Gen 9. Assuming that holds, the Switch 2 will be Gen 9 until the PS6 & Xbox 5 release, at which point it'll be a Gen 10 system.

Honestly, the only reason we still use "generations" is because from the NES on up through last generation, all notable home consoles were cohorts with each other and almost always exhibited clear jumps in power over previous systems. The confusion sets in both for pre-Crash of '83 systems and for post-Wii U Nintendo consoles.

The Atari 2600 was the dominant console from the late 70s on up through 1983, but there was also the 5200 as well as other systems that didn't pop up until the very early 80s like the Intellivision and ColecoVision. They all offered about the same type of gameplay experiences, but the 2600 was weaker than the others, though it still set the pace. They all competed directly with each other, and the 5200 was meant to serve as a companion to the 2600, but the highly staggered releases gives enough wiggle room for people to argue whether the pre-Crash cartridge-based consoles were one or two generations.

Meanwhile, the Wii U's failure meant Nintendo had to expedite its successor. Instead of releasing in, say, holiday 2018 or 2019, their next system released in March 2017, about halfway through the life cycle of the PS4 & XBO, fully three years and eight months before the PS5 & XBS were released. Because this system was successful and had a normal lifespan, Nintendo is kind of stuck releasing systems right in the middle of the life cycles of the current PlayStation & Xbox consoles. That provides all sorts of wiggle room for people to argue.

So that would mean the Switch is a true hybrid. Hybrid console and hybrid generation.



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 160 million (was 120 million, then 140 million, then 150 million)

PS5: 130 million (was 124 million)

Xbox Series X/S: 54 million (was 60 million, then 57 million)

"The way to accomplish great things, is to be indefatigable and never rest till the thing is accomplished." - Joseph Smith Jr.

Shtinamin_ said:

So that would mean the Switch is a true hybrid. Hybrid console and hybrid generation.

Hey. Works for me.



Visit http://shadowofthevoid.wordpress.com

In accordance to the VGC forum rules, §8.5, I hereby exercise my right to demand to be left alone regarding the subject of the effects of the pandemic on video game sales (i.e., "COVID bump").

KLXVER said:
HoloDust said:

ColecoVision started 3rd in 1982.

Then in 1983 you have SEGA SG1000 (which is pretty much the same hardware as ColecoVision) and Nintendo Famicom (which was directly influenced by ColecoVision, as per designers).

Colecovision is 2nd gen. At least according to Wikipedia. Im not very familiar with that console.

I wouldn't pay attention much to what Wikipedia says about console generations.

ColecoVision was shock for Atari, and quite a big jump compared to 2600 - which is understandable, given that 2600 is from 1977. Not only its hardware was much more advanced (being envisioned for easy porting of arcade cabinets to console), but ColecoVision came bundled with very good port of Donkey Kong arcade - yes, that Donkey Kong, and Coleco had exclusive console rights for DK, releasing versions for 2600 and Intellivision as well along the way.

As I said, it had same hardware as SEGA's SG-1000 Mark I, which launched in Japan almost a year later, the same day as Famicom, July 15th 1983. "Masayuki Uemura, head of Famicom development, stated that the ColecoVision set the bar that influenced how he approached the creation of the Famicom".

They even had expansion module that enabled it to play all Atari 2600 games (practically, 2600 clone inside it) and was dominating market from '82 onward.

And then the crash came - and funny thing is, ColecVision would keep on selling and getting more expansions if it was not for mismanagement of Coleco thinking console market was over, gimping ColecoVision's production and focusing on home computer market with ADAM - which itself turned out to be costly disaster that led to demise of Coleco...but that's the story for another time.

In the end, in its short lifespan (82-85) before Coleco pulled the plug, it sold over 6 millions (including CBS Electronics packaged and labeled CBS ColecoVision), and if it was not for Coleco's mismanagement and bad decisions, console history might've been fairly different that what it is.