As of Dec 31, 2023 the Switch has sold 48.62M hardware units in North America and is the 3rd best selling console in North America. The Switch's competition is rather strong.

As of Jan 31, 2024 the Switch has sold 49.00M hardware units in North America.

As of Feb 29, 2024 the Switch has sold 49.23M hardware units in North America.

1. NDS: 57.92M
2. PS2: 53.65M
3. Switch: 49.23M

How far can the Switch climb up the "leaderboard"?

I'll do my best to stay updated!

Ooof. 9 million to catch the DS. I'm optimistic in the Switch getting the 16 million remaining to be the best selling console worldwide, but just in the US......9 million is a steep mountain to climb. Maaaaaaybe the Switch reaches the PS2 at least.

Ok, why do you think 9M will be too difficult?

Where did you get the Switch's NA numbers from?

A big reason being the Switch barely outsold the Wii in the US just this past Summer while already having comfortably surpassed the Wii worldwide a year and a half before that in early 2022. With Nintendo forecasting continued decline in Switch sales, and currently no major hitters announced for 2024 outside of a few remakes and the Peach game, I expect US numbers to continue to go down. Especially with the PS5 now routinely surpassing the Switch in sales and the thought process of the Switch 2 being on the horizon. 

Not at fault on Nintendo's part either. The Switch is about to be 7 years old and I'm sure Nintendo is trying to stock up their upcoming biggest games for the launch of the new system. 

Hopefully Nintendo still has a trick or two up their sleeves to get the Switch past the finish line. 

https://www.vgchartz.com/charts/platform_totals/Hardware.php/

That is true, and in the US it surpassed the XBOX 360 in November. 

This is the percentage of sales for the Wii per region:
NA: 44.78%
EU: 32.59%
J: 12.56%
O:10.07%

And the percentage of sales for the XBOX 360 per region:
NA: 53.82%
EU: 29.25%
J: 1.94%
O: 14.99%

Followed by the Switch's percentage sales as of Dec, 31 2023 per region:
NA: 35.63%
EU: 25.75%
J: 23.29%
O: 15.32%

The Wii and the XBOX 360 were NA heavy, the PS2 and the NDS were relatively the same as the Switch for NA, 33.81% and 37.61% respectively.
Surpassing the NDS will be difficult, but it is interesting to see how similar it is.

Just because the PS5 is now the best selling console each month, it doesn't mean the Switch can't continue to sell as well as it has. But I do understand the logic you have for your stance.

Probably the PS2 if it legs it out ok after this next year when the successor will be out but the DS is certainly too much of an ask at this point I believe

I think it can challenge PS2 but not DS.
At least not with the rate that its declining but Switch 2 looming in the horizon.

Switch is now at 49.00M, according to VGChartz.
The Switch has been selling for 7.9 years as of Jan 2024. Meaning it sells around 6.2M units per year. The odds for Switch to surpass the PS2 are looking great.

Switch has 4.65M units left to sell to surpass the #2 seller in North America, the PS2.

Using annual average is a poor way of looking at future sales, instead you should look at YoY trends.

USA numbers

2020-9.02 million

2021-7.61 million (-16%)

2022-5.83 million (-23%)

2023-4.85 million (-17%)

YoY decline should begin to accelerate at this point, last year had Zelda:ToTK & Mario Movie in Spring, this year has nothing of that magnitude so YoY comparisons will look really bad in Q2. It remains to be seen what Switch gets in the 2nd half of the year but I can’t imagine it being nearly as big as Mario Wonder, plus Switch 2 should be announced by then which can potentially impact hardware sales.

I could see Switch having more like a 30-35% decline or roughly 3.25 million this year in USA.