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Shtinamin_ said:

Switch is now at 49.00M, according to VGChartz.
The Switch has been selling for 7.9 years as of Jan 2024. Meaning it sells around 6.2M units per year. The odds for Switch to surpass the PS2 are looking great.

Switch has 4.65M units left to sell to surpass the #2 seller in North America, the PS2.

Using annual average is a poor way of looking at future sales, instead you should look at YoY trends.

USA numbers

2020-9.02 million

2021-7.61 million (-16%)

2022-5.83 million (-23%)

2023-4.85 million (-17%)

YoY decline should begin to accelerate at this point, last year had Zelda:ToTK & Mario Movie in Spring, this year has nothing of that magnitude so YoY comparisons will look really bad in Q2. It remains to be seen what Switch gets in the 2nd half of the year but I can’t imagine it being nearly as big as Mario Wonder, plus Switch 2 should be announced by then which can potentially impact hardware sales.

I could see Switch having more like a 30-35% decline or roughly 3.25 million this year in USA.

When the herd loses its way, the shepard must kill the bull that leads them astray.