Most of JP 3rd parties not releasing things on Switch are the ones developing games that target high specs and couldn't be ported to Switch in first place. I dont think Capcom can make RE Evil Village run on Switch 

The big elephant in the room here is PC. PC market untapped a huge userbase for JRPGs. Developing for Series/PS5/PC is enough to secure high sales which can make them avoid low quality ports from Switch. Current architecture and engines making porting for those 3 systems a breeze and avoid development costs with optimization. Not every company wants to release a game that is plagued with many frame rate issues and problems to render assets and textures 

As for Persona I'll be disappointed if it's not getting a Switch 2 release because Persona 5 is on Switch. It's not a high demanding game. I believe it has a decent chance to be on Switch 2 at launch

Kingdom Hearts will depend on how much Square wants the game to be high-fidelity. I honestly hope they keep targeting PlayStation here, simply because it's one of the few JRPGs that have enough budget to produce high fidelity graphics

And again, most Japanese publishers have brought everything besides their biggest AAA titles to the Switch. So that whole argument doesn't make sense to begin with.

Most non-AAA JRPGs are actually PC/PlayStation/Switch games. Unless its a bigger AAA release, Xbox still often misses these types of games.

I do think that third party support will gradually continue to grow on Nintendo's next system, but some games are just not going to make it.  Here is the thing though.  This has more to do with business decisions than tech reasons.

Why isn't tech that big of a factor?  Because most third party games are going to be made for the XBox Series S which is already a big step down from the Series X or PS5.  Just looking at a tech angle alone, if they can get a game to run on a Series S, then they could also get it to run on the Switch 2.  However, we should also expect some publishers to come up with lame ass excuses against porting games to Switch 2 while other publishers come along and do so called "impossible ports".  We already saw this sort of thing on the Switch, so expect to see even more of that on Switch 2.

To be honest I don’t care about 3rd party support as long as Nintendo keeps releasing good games.

Don’t get me wrong, I don’t mind good 3rd party games and I get the ones that seem interesting. But they are not the reason I get a Nintendo system.

Third party devs kinda took some blind shot at working on Switch and didn't really invest a lot on it at the beginning until it was proven a success. So Some devs did find success making original games on Switch so i'm sure it will continue and maybe more early on. Also, the power factor is that with the rumoured 3.5 DLSS, the Switch will be able to have current gen games run pretty well, so it will make port easier.

Overall I see it being similar to Switch which is tons of indies, previous gen ports, retro remasters/compilations, small-medium scale Japanese games, kid/family friendly games, some high profile exclusives and the occasional current gen “impossible ports”.

As long as Switch 2 isn’t a wild departure from Switch 1 than I think the main differences will be 3rd parties being on board right away instead of the wait and see approach many of them had on Switch 1 (for example, an Activision employee porting Crash Bandicoot to Switch on their own time) and due to diminishing returns and hardware rumors of Switch 2, I think the “impossible” ports will be more frequent.

It's going to be quite similar to the Switch. Maybe a bit stronger from the get go since it won't have the initial hesitancy you had back when the Switch just released. Basically what they had going for in the first year of the WiiU with loads of late gen ports and current ones.
Also I expect some AA exclusivity deal between them and Square Enix, Platinum Games, etc ...

Biggest difference I see is probably Capcom not selling the cloud version of their games on Switch 2 .... Hopefully!

I think you are remembering the first year of Wii U differently than it really was, 3rd parties released a game or two during holiday 2012 and a game or two during holiday 2013, the period in between was a barren wasteland.

Then it can easily be better than the WiiU's support from the get-go !

i'll be happy with the current level of support if they actually include the full game in physical form. So many games I passed on because of this nonsense