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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

Just tagging myself in this thread to see how the discussion evolves. If.

Also I locked your thread because clearly you have a bias against Microsoft, you weren't providing an impartial, empirical analysis of the market or Microsoft in general... Your signature, opening statements in the video is all the evidence I need for that.

I still believe locking that thread was the correct choice.



--::{PC Gaming Master Race}::--

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While I see Microsoft leaving before Nintendo and Sony, I don't buy that Xbox Series X/S is their final platform.
Microsoft isn't Sega, they can lose oceans of money on Xbox and the parent megacorporation of Microsoft will still thrive. I'm pretty sure Xbox 360 was the era of Xbox where they lost the least amount of money relative to profits. Even then, they still lost a great deal of money.
Microsoft will probably try another Xbox strategy before bowing out. I even think after (or during) the time they leave Xbox consoles behind, they will have Xbox branded Gaming PCs. These will be for enthusiasts and sold at little to no loss (compared to consoles which sell at a loss for a while).



Lifetime Sales Predictions 

Switch: 156 million (was 73, then 96, then 113 million, then 125 million, then 144 million, then 151 million)

PS5: 115 million (was 105 million) Xbox Series S/X: 48 million (was 60 million, then 67 million, then 57 million)

PS4: 120 mil (was 100 then 130 million, then 122 million) Xbox One: 51 mil (was 50 then 55 mil)

3DS: 75.5 mil (was 73, then 77 million)

"Let go your earthly tether, enter the void, empty and become wind." - Guru Laghima

only777 said:

Xbox sales are slowing down, Game Pass is not bringing in new users to the Xbox Console eco system, Starfield actually saw two thirds of its sales from PC users.  So what's actually happening here?  Xbox players are migrating to either PC or leaving the system altogether and going to PlayStation.

There is nothing to support this. Currently, the front page shows that PS5 has outsold the XS by about 44 million to 24 million. Using VGChartz data for sales thru 2016 as a comparable sample for last gen, the ratio was very similar, 53.49 million for PS4 and 27.92 million for X1. If anything, Xbox sales share has actually increased from 52.2% to 54.4% of PlayStation levels in 2016 and currently respectively.

If Starfield sold more on PC, that isn't a sign that Xbox is declining. It's proof that the PC market is growing faster than console gaming, something that people have been noticing since the early 2010's.



Love and tolerate.

KLXVER said:
Ryuu96 said:

I mean, okay, if you want to say that and go against the entire business world including Sony and Nintendo then you do you, Lol.

You're wrong, but fine.

Well business is dumb and I dont like it.

yeah man to be honest id drop the argument with ryuu 96. he seems to know a lot about this topic and it doesnt help that he has 30,000 more posts than you, which increases his credibility substantially versus what you are bringing with your 15,000 posts. i dunno man, maybe thats something to consider moving forward when you get into your next vgchartz fight



CatGuy said:
KLXVER said:

Well business is dumb and I dont like it.

yeah man to be honest id drop the argument with ryuu 96. he seems to know a lot about this topic and it doesnt help that he has 30,000 more posts than you, which increases his credibility substantially versus what you are bringing with your 15,000 posts. i dunno man, maybe thats something to consider moving forward when you get into your next vgchartz fight

Tbf it was dropped. He didn't refute that he was wrong in the end, only that he doesn't like it which is whatever, not liking it doesn't change anything, Lol. But he seems to have accepted that it is how businesses run, MS Gaming is profitable and M&As aren't counted on the profit sheets in the way he originally thought.

I'd not say post count has anything to do with credibility either, I feel I know what I'm saying irrespective of my post count, Lol. It just means I post a lot and I mean, I do post a lot of news but it doesn't mean I know everything, some with far less post counts than me will know things that I don't know, I think looking at it from a post count perspective isn't right.



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only777 said:

I wasn't happy that Pemalite was rather mean to my video post and made some untrue assumptions about my post intentions, so to please him, here's where I was going to take that locked thread, but now in text only form.

Microsoft has ruined Xbox, the business decision to push Game Pass above all else is a disaster that is playing out in front of us all.

Starfield not pushing the needle in hardware sales and Gamepass simply doesn't generate the revenue to fund the running and development costs of the Many, many Microsoft Game studios.  I did layout the maths in the video I created, but I'm not linking it again as I don't want to be branded as self promoting.

We saw in the FTC leak the costs of bringing 3rd party games to the service.  We know that games like COD are costing around a billion dollars to get out the door now.  So with all the costs of development and maintenance outweighing what the service is actually bring in, at some point something has to give.

Xbox sales are slowing down, Game Pass is not bringing in new users to the Xbox Console eco system, Starfield actually saw two thirds of its sales from PC users.  So what's actually happening here?  Xbox players are migrating to either PC or leaving the system altogether and going to PlayStation.

In a world where the primary Game Pass platform is PC, Microsoft has a problem.  PC gaming is too entrenched in Steam for Microsoft to realistically find more than 50 million users, and with Xbox console sales stalling Microsoft has to do something.

That something is to become the biggest 3rd party in the industry.  I think Game Pass will continue on as Microsoft's PC subscription service, although all Microsoft studio's titles will see releases on Steam, PlayStation and Nintendo. 

I also think we are looking at the last Xbox generation in the Series X|S consoles.  With Game Pass failing to push Microsoft out of 3rd place, they will refocus their efforts into becoming the biggest powerhouse 3rd party publisher in the industry because this makes the most business sense.

I believe the timeline will look something like this:

  • 2024: Starfield is announced for PlayStation 5
  • 2026: Xbox Game Pass is re-branded to Microsoft Game Pass
  • 2027: Microsoft announce that there will be no new Xbox consoles

In your dreams this tread is pure rubbish.  At least you should have waited until April 1st to post it that way it could have received some decent laughs.



Ryuu96 said:
CatGuy said:

yeah man to be honest id drop the argument with ryuu 96. he seems to know a lot about this topic and it doesnt help that he has 30,000 more posts than you, which increases his credibility substantially versus what you are bringing with your 15,000 posts. i dunno man, maybe thats something to consider moving forward when you get into your next vgchartz fight

Tbf it was dropped. He didn't refute that he was wrong in the end, only that he doesn't like it which is whatever, not liking it doesn't change anything, Lol. But he seems to have accepted that it is how businesses run, MS Gaming is profitable and M&As aren't counted on the profit sheets in the way he originally thought.

I'd not say post count has anything to do with credibility either, I feel I know what I'm saying irrespective of my post count, Lol. It just means I post a lot and I mean, I do post a lot of news but it doesn't mean I know everything, some with far less post counts than me will know things that I don't know, I think looking at it from a post count perspective isn't right.

all i know is that i would never get in the ring against a guy with a 43,000 post count



CatGuy said:
Ryuu96 said:

Tbf it was dropped. He didn't refute that he was wrong in the end, only that he doesn't like it which is whatever, not liking it doesn't change anything, Lol. But he seems to have accepted that it is how businesses run, MS Gaming is profitable and M&As aren't counted on the profit sheets in the way he originally thought.

I'd not say post count has anything to do with credibility either, I feel I know what I'm saying irrespective of my post count, Lol. It just means I post a lot and I mean, I do post a lot of news but it doesn't mean I know everything, some with far less post counts than me will know things that I don't know, I think looking at it from a post count perspective isn't right.

all i know is that i would never get in the ring against a guy with a 43,000 post count

Are you new to forums in general? The post count is meaningless, just shows how much time we wasted online. Nothing against Ryuu but like 30 thousand of those are in the Xbox thread posting Twitter quotes and shit. Big whoop, the guy likes Xbox a lot. Doesn't make them some big bad leeroy brown.



Bite my shiny metal cockpit!

Leynos said:
CatGuy said:

all i know is that i would never get in the ring against a guy with a 43,000 post count

Are you new to forums in general? The post count is meaningless, just shows how much time we wasted online. Nothing against Ryuu but like 30 thousand of those are in the Xbox thread posting Twitter quotes and shit. Big whoop, the guy likes Xbox a lot. Doesn't make them some big bad leeroy brown.

Dude should be banned for his constant post spamming



Goatseye said:

It’s mind blowing that chronic forum dwellers, have so little grasp on the video game market discussed on this platform. Xbox is second in revenue in terms of revenue

1) Chronic forum dweller?  You realise you have 20x more posts than me right?

2) Look at the information that is not on your chart.  For a start it covers just a part of 2022, so how reflective of Microsofts gaming business in general is anyones guess. Plus if you actually read the source on the very website you linked, it says that the information showing Sony and Nintendo's revenue is just guess work and not from any sort of account information from the respective companys.



Sony want to make money by selling art, Nintendo want to make money by selling fun, Microsoft want to make money.