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Forums - Gaming Discussion - Prediction: Microsoft to become largest 3rd party publisher.

KLXVER said:
Ryuu96 said:

No, you just don't understand business economics, Lol.

I understand basic math. If I buy a big diamond, then yes, I own something worth millions of dollars. But if nobody buys it from me I just have a big useless paperweight. 

Its not that difficult. Assets means fuck all if you cant sell it. They have spent way more than they have ever made back.

Im sure MS will make their money back at some point, but we are talking years and years. 

Its really easy, but whats the point of arguing with someone who just insults you. Take care.

An even more basic comparison would be if I buy a house for $100k, I'm not in debt by $100k, I instead own a $100k house, I now have (roughly) $100k worth of assets to my name. I'd only go into debt if I spend more money than I have. Your point that Microsoft is somehow in debt for converting $69bn of their own pure cash into a $69bn asset (ABK) is not how any businesses operate when looking at M&As.

Microsoft has no intention of reselling ABK in the near future, but nevertheless it's cash they own which has been converted into an asset and said asset (ABK) both benefits other parts of the business and likely brings in more than the interest on the cash sitting doing nothing. Our house and diamond comparisons are worth less even because those two assets aren't generating us income like ABK would for Microsoft.

I'll say again, Microsoft Gaming is not suddenly -$69bn with ABK, Lol. It isn't how M&A's are looked at in the business world, not how profits are determined in the business world. Microsoft Gaming profits on a yearly basis based on the calculations of expenses made in that year and nothing more than that.

Bigger issue is how much debts the acquired company has, if the acquirer has the cash reserves and if not, where they're borrowing or what shares they're parting with. Microsoft is in a position to have over $100bn in cold hard cash so the ABK acquisition didn't need any borrowing, any share sales, and the only ABK debt they take on is $3bn and most companies are fine with taking on quite a lot of long-term debt.

Shit, barely any company would do acquisitions if this is how things were done, Lol.



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KLXVER said:
Goatseye said:

Doesnt matter what its worth. Unless MS sells Activision Blizzard for 70 Billion, they havent made any profits from it.

Its that "what a thing is worth in assets" that I dont agree with. By that account every company can say they are doing great since they have assets. THQ had a lot off assets. They failed because not many people bought anything associated with their "assets".

Good thing for MS they are filthy rich and makes money from other "assets".

People's issue with your comments are that you're basically ignoring business economics 101 and how every company in the world looks at M&As...

No matter what you say here, it's wrong, because the business world does not operate like you're implying. Microsoft Gaming profits and ABK doesn't straddle them with a $69bn debt, Lol. They're turning their cash into assets which they believe are worth $69bn and then making money off that $69bn asset (likely more than interest rates on $69bn cash).

They (other companies) can't say that if they don't profit off those assets. Which Microsoft does! Lol.

If a company acquires a bunch of shit, sure they have a bunch of assets, but they need to profit off those assets still and they profit by having lower operating costs than the income they bring in on a quarterly/yearly basis. Microsoft brings in more income than their operating costs on a yearly basis and therefore they profit...

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 23 October 2023

Ryuu96 said:
KLXVER said:

I understand basic math. If I buy a big diamond, then yes, I own something worth millions of dollars. But if nobody buys it from me I just have a big useless paperweight. 

Its not that difficult. Assets means fuck all if you cant sell it. They have spent way more than they have ever made back.

Im sure MS will make their money back at some point, but we are talking years and years. 

Its really easy, but whats the point of arguing with someone who just insults you. Take care.

An even more basic comparison would be if I buy a house for $100k, I'm not in debt by $100k, I instead own a $100k house, I now have (roughly) $100k worth of assets to my name. I'd only go into debt if I spend more money than I have. Your point that Microsoft is somehow in debt for converting $69bn of their own pure cash into a $69bn asset (ABK) is not how any businesses operate when looking at M&As.

Microsoft has no intention of reselling ABK in the near future, but nevertheless it's cash they own which has been converted into an asset and said asset (ABK) both benefits other parts of the business and likely brings in more than the interest on the cash sitting doing nothing. Our house and diamond comparisons are worth less even because those two assets aren't generating us income like ABK would for Microsoft.

I'll say again, Microsoft Gaming is not suddenly -$69bn with ABK, Lol. It isn't how M&A's are looked at in the business world, not how profits are determined in the business world. Microsoft Gaming profits on a yearly basis based on the calculations of expenses made in that year and nothing more than that.

Bigger issue is how much debts the acquired company has, if the acquirer has the cash reserves and if not, where they're borrowing or what shares they're parting with. Microsoft is in a position to have over $100bn in cold hard cash so the ABK acquisition didn't need any borrowing, any share sales, and the only ABK debt they take on is $3bn and most companies are fine with taking on quite a lot of long-term debt.

Shit, barely any company would do acquisitions if this is how things were done, Lol.

You are down 100K no matter how you look at it. Doesnt matter if the house is worth 100K or not. The only way to make a profit is to sell the house for over 100K or rent it out and make the money back over time. 



Ryuu96 said:
KLXVER said:

Doesnt matter what its worth. Unless MS sells Activision Blizzard for 70 Billion, they havent made any profits from it.

Its that "what a thing is worth in assets" that I dont agree with. By that account every company can say they are doing great since they have assets. THQ had a lot off assets. They failed because not many people bought anything associated with their "assets".

Good thing for MS they are filthy rich and makes money from other "assets".

People's issue with your comments are that you're basically ignoring business economics 101 and how every company in the world looks at M&As...

No matter what you say here, it's wrong, because the business world does not operate like you're implying. Microsoft Gaming profits and ABK doesn't straddle them with a $69bn debt, Lol. They're turning their cash into assets which they believe are worth $69bn and then making money off that $69bn asset (likely more than interest rates on $69bn cash).

They (other companies) can't say that if they don't profit off those assets. Which Microsoft does! Lol.

If a company acquires a bunch of shit, sure they have a bunch of assets, but they need to profit off those assets still and they profit by having lower operating costs than the income they bring in on a quarterly/yearly basis. Microsoft brings in more income than their operating costs on a yearly basis and therefore they profit...

Thats why I call it corporate BS talk. You can make anyone believe whatever you want if you use enough words.



KLXVER said:
Ryuu96 said:

An even more basic comparison would be if I buy a house for $100k, I'm not in debt by $100k, I instead own a $100k house, I now have (roughly) $100k worth of assets to my name. I'd only go into debt if I spend more money than I have. Your point that Microsoft is somehow in debt for converting $69bn of their own pure cash into a $69bn asset (ABK) is not how any businesses operate when looking at M&As.

Microsoft has no intention of reselling ABK in the near future, but nevertheless it's cash they own which has been converted into an asset and said asset (ABK) both benefits other parts of the business and likely brings in more than the interest on the cash sitting doing nothing. Our house and diamond comparisons are worth less even because those two assets aren't generating us income like ABK would for Microsoft.

I'll say again, Microsoft Gaming is not suddenly -$69bn with ABK, Lol. It isn't how M&A's are looked at in the business world, not how profits are determined in the business world. Microsoft Gaming profits on a yearly basis based on the calculations of expenses made in that year and nothing more than that.

Bigger issue is how much debts the acquired company has, if the acquirer has the cash reserves and if not, where they're borrowing or what shares they're parting with. Microsoft is in a position to have over $100bn in cold hard cash so the ABK acquisition didn't need any borrowing, any share sales, and the only ABK debt they take on is $3bn and most companies are fine with taking on quite a lot of long-term debt.

Shit, barely any company would do acquisitions if this is how things were done, Lol.

You are down 100K no matter how you look at it. Doesnt matter if the house is worth 100K or not. The only way to make a profit is to sell the house for over 100K or rent it out and make the money back over time. 

No, I have a $100k house based on current market value (it may increase/decrease overtime) but I nevertheless have $100k worth of assets to my name. Like I said though the comparison isn't a 1-1 because ABK generates instant income while a diamond and house (depends) doesn't but it's a basic example of how cash is turned into assets, the only difference is the ABK assets starts generating income instantly.

It's not me being in debt by $100k, it's not me being down by $100k, and more than that, it's a long-term investment into my life, one which may potentially help me achieve things further in life, and yes I can rent it out and start generating extra income, just like Microsoft will instantly start making money off ABK automatically.

If I had say, $100m, I ain't worrying about buying a $100k house because I'm "down" 100k, Lol.



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KLXVER said:
Ryuu96 said:

People's issue with your comments are that you're basically ignoring business economics 101 and how every company in the world looks at M&As...

No matter what you say here, it's wrong, because the business world does not operate like you're implying. Microsoft Gaming profits and ABK doesn't straddle them with a $69bn debt, Lol. They're turning their cash into assets which they believe are worth $69bn and then making money off that $69bn asset (likely more than interest rates on $69bn cash).

They (other companies) can't say that if they don't profit off those assets. Which Microsoft does! Lol.

If a company acquires a bunch of shit, sure they have a bunch of assets, but they need to profit off those assets still and they profit by having lower operating costs than the income they bring in on a quarterly/yearly basis. Microsoft brings in more income than their operating costs on a yearly basis and therefore they profit...

Thats why I call it corporate BS talk. You can make anyone believe whatever you want if you use enough words.

I mean, okay, if you want to say that and go against the entire business world including Sony and Nintendo then you do you, Lol.

You're wrong, but fine.

Last edited by Ryuu96 - on 23 October 2023

Ryuu96 said:
KLXVER said:

You are down 100K no matter how you look at it. Doesnt matter if the house is worth 100K or not. The only way to make a profit is to sell the house for over 100K or rent it out and make the money back over time. 

No, I have a $100k house based on current market value (it may increase/decrease overtime) but I nevertheless have $100k worth of assets to my name. Like I said though the comparison isn't a 1-1 because ABK generates instant income while a diamond and house (depends) doesn't but it's a basic example of how cash is turned into assets, the only difference is the ABK assets starts generating income instantly.

It's not me being in debt by $100k, it's not me being down by $100k, and more than that, it's a long-term investment into my life, one which may potentially help me achieve things further in life, and yes I can rent it out and start generating extra income, just like Microsoft will instantly start making money off ABK automatically.

If I had say, $100m, I ain't worrying about buying a $100k house because I'm "down" 100k, Lol.

Well you are down 100K even if you worry about it or not. Current market value means nothing if nobody is willing to buy it from you at that price. You think people can just sell whatever they have lying around because thats what it goes for? I would love to sell some of my games for what they go for. Its just finding a buyer dumb enough is rather difficult.



Ryuu96 said:
KLXVER said:

Thats why I call it corporate BS talk. You can make anyone believe whatever you want if you use enough words.

I mean, okay, if you want to say that and go against the entire business world including Sony and Nintendo then you do you, Lol.

You're wrong, but fine.

Well business is dumb and I dont like it.



only777 said:

I wasn't happy that Pemalite was rather mean to my video post and made some untrue assumptions about my post intentions, so to please him, here's where I was going to take that locked thread, but now in text only form.

Ok well for starters, I watched your video. You can't blame him for making assumptions when two seconds into the video you're calling Xbox a "cum filled sock" or something to that effect. Also having watched your video, it's GameFAQS tier console warring trash, full of misinformation and horrific math.

only777 said:

Microsoft has ruined Xbox, the business decision to push Game Pass above all else is a disaster that is playing out in front of us all.

They aren't pushing GamePass above all else, though. They have said GamePass is around 10-15% of their business and that it will remain that way. They also have very high revenue and make a lot of money from Xbox, so where does this "disaster" come from? You seem to be under the assumption that if you aren't selling the most consoles, you aren't making any money.


only777 said:

Starfield not pushing the needle in hardware sales and Gamepass simply doesn't generate the revenue to fund the running and development costs of the Many, many Microsoft Game studios.  I did layout the maths in the video I created, but I'm not linking it again as I don't want to be branded as self promoting.

Good, please don't link that video again. The "math" in the video is horrible and demonstrates a complete lack of understanding of math and of business. You brush off the fact that MS has confirmed GamePass is profitable by essentially saying "its not profitable, trust me bro". You go on to explain that it can't be profitable because Microsoft has spent billions on acquisitions. That's... not how business works.

only777 said:

We saw in the FTC leak the costs of bringing 3rd party games to the service.  We know that games like COD are costing around a billion dollars to get out the door now.  So with all the costs of development and maintenance outweighing what the service is actually bring in, at some point something has to give.

This is the kind of misinformation that your video is chock full of. Which is funny, because you use the term "fake news!!!" throughout your video, and yet here you are literally hand crafting a steaming pile of fake news for us. So just to clear this up, when you say "we know games like CoD cost around a billion dollars to get out the door", what you mean to say is you found a link where someone says a future CoD might cost a billion to put out. But they base that on a complete guess when it comes to the budget of CoD, and then they also connect that to some nonsensical report that some unnamed publisher spent $550,000,000 in marketing for ONE unnamed game. In other words, it's bullshit. Not to mention it's irrelevant. The money spent to get CoD out the door doesn't relate to other games in any way.


only777 said:

Xbox sales are slowing down, Game Pass is not bringing in new users to the Xbox Console eco system, Starfield actually saw two thirds of its sales from PC users.  So what's actually happening here?  Xbox players are migrating to either PC or leaving the system altogether and going to PlayStation.

More unsubstantiated statements with no facts to back them up. Even the one thing you provided a link for, is just UK boxed sales. In other words, yawn.


only777 said:

In a world where the primary Game Pass platform is PC, Microsoft has a problem.  PC gaming is too entrenched in Steam for Microsoft to realistically find more than 50 million users, and with Xbox console sales stalling Microsoft has to do something.

MS doesn't want to find all those users on PC. They don't expect GamePass to reach the levels you're claiming they won't hit.


only777 said:

That something is to become the biggest 3rd party in the industry.  I think Game Pass will continue on as Microsoft's PC subscription service, although all Microsoft studio's titles will see releases on Steam, PlayStation and Nintendo. 

I also think we are looking at the last Xbox generation in the Series X|S consoles.  With Game Pass failing to push Microsoft out of 3rd place, they will refocus their efforts into becoming the biggest powerhouse 3rd party publisher in the industry because this makes the most business sense.

So you say they can't find a good footing on PC because of Steam, and then go on to say PC is the only place GamePass will exist? Also, Microsoft's titles already see releases on Steam.

only777 said:

I believe the timeline will look something like this:

  • 2024: Starfield is announced for PlayStation 5
  • 2026: Xbox Game Pass is re-branded to Microsoft Game Pass
  • 2027: Microsoft announce that there will be no new Xbox consoles

Cocaine is a hell of a drug.

Also, something else regarding your video. Are you like... completely oblivious to the history of Sony or something? You go on about how MS doesn't deserve "credit" for Sea of Thieves because they bought Rare twenty years ago and yet the example you give for Sony creating a great franchise and not just buying it is footage of Last of Us, from Naughty Dog, which Sony bought. This year all they had for software is baseball and Spider-Man, a Marvel IP developed by Insomniac, another studio they bought.

Honest question, we're three years into the generation, has Sony delivered a single high quality new IP? Oh wait I know, Returnal, that game was ok I guess. Made by Housemarque, a studio they bought. Weird.

KLXVER said:
Goatseye said:

It’s mind blowing that chronic forum dwellers, have so little grasp on the video game market discussed on this platform. Xbox is second in revenue in terms of revenue from platform holders, in front of Nintendo, even though the latter sells more consoles.
Xbox have better profit margin than PlayStation, even though Sony brings in more revenue, only to be superseded by Nintendo.
It seems like we’re still in 2013.

https://gameranx.com/updates/id/476524/article/xboxs-data-suggests-they-might-have-a-better-profit-margin-than-playstation/#:~:text=For%20the%20first%20nine%20months%20of%20FY2022%2C%20which,in%20comparison%20to%20their%20competitors%2C%20PlayStation%2C%20and%20Nintendo.

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.

Another person that doesn't understand how business works.

Let's say you have $1,000. If you leave that money in the bank, after five years you might have $1,060 thanks to interest.

Alternatively, let's say you can take $400 of that money and buy a 3D printer. You then start printing things for people and you make a profit of $50 annually. After five years you have $850 in the bank and a $400 printer. In other words you have $1250 worth of capital. This is a shitty example but it should make it very easy to understand. While it's true, you "spent" $400 on the printer and only profited $250 in those five years, at the end of the day, you are worth more than you are if you just left that money to accrue interest. You can hate business speak all you want, this is accepted accounting methods and all companies use it.



LudicrousSpeed said:
KLXVER said:

Doesnt matter when they spend 60+ billion to buy a company. They are not making a profit. They spend more than they make. Easy as that.

Another person that doesn't understand how business works.

Let's say you have $1,000. If you leave that money in the bank, after five years you might have $1,060 thanks to interest.

Alternatively, let's say you can take $400 of that money and buy a 3D printer. You then start printing things for people and you make a profit of $50 annually. After five years you have $850 in the bank and a $400 printer. In other words you have $1250 worth of capital. This is a shitty example but it should make it very easy to understand. While it's true, you "spent" $400 on the printer and only profited $250 in those five years, at the end of the day, you are worth more than you are if you just left that money to accrue interest. You can hate business speak all you want, this is accepted accounting methods and all companies use it.

If I had a company and investors, I would probably use it too. It sounds better. We are not 69B down, we are just worth 69B dollar more now! Hurrah for us!

Just wish it was like that for the rest of us. I bought Gears Of War back in the day for 60 bucks. I now have 60 bucks in assets instead of a game probably worth 5 bucks at most. That does sound nicer, Ill give you that.

Last edited by KLXVER - on 24 October 2023