No game this year so far is even remotely close to Zelda. But if they would have to nominate other games I can't see them skipping Diablo IV or FF16 which don't meet the criteria or Starfield, which probably won't meet the criteria. Same e goes for Spidey 2.

I can see them snubbing both SFVI and BG3. Fighters and games from Larian usually don't do very well as GOTY nomine.

I would love a sequel! Had so much fun with this game, was really wanting Captain Toad as a playable fighter in Smash, I know his gimmick is he can't jump but I'm sure some kind of compromise could have been made.

Bayonetta 2 was the best game of 2014, but Mario Kart 8 and Tropical Freeze were right up there as well. Captain Toad was awesome too.
Wii U's 2014 was damn good and the only year of the system where it really felt good to own one.

My tastes are a bit weird; my top game of 2012 was the Wii reimagining of Fatal Frame 2, at 77 on Metacritic. Binary Domain would be up there as well, and that has a 72/74 on PS360 which is downright criminal.

As to the actual questions, I think this year has so many 90+ games that I wouldn't expect a low 80s nominee, and it's too soon for me to pick one.
Street Fighter 6 seems the likeliest pick for a 90+ snub.
This year is pretty packed in terms of the sort of highly acclaimed blockbusters that get nominated for GOTY awards, though personally I have my eye on smaller scale stuff like Turbo Overkill and Phantom Fury which tend to be ignored because of their modest production values. I expect the former especially will be almost entirely overlooked despite it looking incredibly promising.

But now what's the 2nd best then?

My top game ever has a 80 on Metacritic, everyone's entitled to their own taste, critics are just a guide.

The other Bayonetta game.

Yeah pretty much, I've thoroughly enjoyed plenty of games that scored in the 70s or even the 60s, while there are games that scored in the 90s that I found to be a tedious slog.

I almost missed out on plenty of good times because I used to take critics too seriously back in the early to mid 7th gen.

Issue with TGA is they arent brave enough to give games that are niche the Award. They are too focused on outside preception and popularity of a title that weights in on the award.

Good examples below
Half Life Alyx (93) VR Title. Shafted to the VR sub genre.
Forza Horizon 5 (92) Racing Title. Shafted to the Racing sub genre.

Instead of rewarding games the overall GOTY, its easier for them to place these unique games in sub categories to allow them to place a more common game in the awards.

Its all to increase viewership.

Ori and the Will of the Wisps not even getting nominated in 2020 was a major snub. It deserved it a lot more some of the ones that got the nod. Platformers tend to be overlooked by these kind of shows.

Which reminds me, what will hypothetical happen if Super Mario Wonder is to score a high 90+ as well, do they simply ignore it for a possible shiny big AAA open world or go with one of the biggest safe brand nominees?

The thing is the TGA are usually kind of partially predictable in their decision making when the years tend to have loads of big performing games on top. 

While Mario is a huge brand, a 2D platformer generally isn't the kind of game TGA cares about; its more of the "games are a fun toy" school of thought instead of "games are serious art". I find it hard to see Mario Bros Wonder getting a nomination in a year with so many highly rated AAA blockbusters, regardless of how good it is.