I think it depends a lot on how good Wonder is. If Wonder turns out to be just a prettier and wackier "NSMB" game - something that doesn't feel that new after you get used to it or doesn't break new ground or just frankly isn't amazing - it'll almost certainly still do 20+ million (I think it doing under 20m is right around 0% chance) but I don't see it doing 30m. But if everyone is saying it is an incredible reinvention of 2D Mario and is an absolute must-buy game and another massive achievement on the Switch by Nintendo and word of mouth sweeps through the Switch user base then I could see it doing 30+ million though probably still not reaching the heights of BotW or Smash which will both probably end up close to 35m.

If I were to bet on it right now, I would say Wonder doesn't hit 30m and no way it comes close to BotW, and likely sells less than TotK. But that's cuz I'm worried it's gonna end up being not much more than a pretty and wacky wrapper around NSMB core play, hopefully my pessimism is wrong. But 2D Mario definitely has a larger potentially sales base than even super popular open world Zelda, but Nintendo did open world Zelda strikingly well, we have no idea how good this 2D Mario is gonna be.

I would take that bet as well. 2D Mario games have benefitted greatly in the past from being the perfect game for casuals to pick up along with the console over its lifespan, but in this case it's just coming out too late, U Deluxe has been the game to benefit from that and I don't think we can expect every U Deluxe owner to go out and get Wonder, probably nowhere close. Wonder will still sell well ofc, but I don't see it reaching the 30 mil range or outselling Odyssey for that matter.

I wouldn't underestimate Wonder.
Being 2D can make it more accessible to casual audiences, and gives it nostalgic appeal to the tens of millions who grew up with the old SMB games.
If it's well made enough to generate positive word of mouth, over 30 million is definitely achievable.

Super Mario Advanced 4 drops out the top 100, Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom enters at number 27 and Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild breaks the top 10. Nintendo Switched games colored purple

Top 100 Best Selling Nintendo Published Games

ShadowLink93 said: Super Mario Advanced 4 drops out the top 100, Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom enters at number 27 and Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild breaks the top 10. Nintendo Switched games colored purple Top 100 Best Selling Nintendo Published Games

Gotta wonder how the chart would look like if you could remove all the Pokemon games here

Nice to see Mario Odyssey overtake Pokemon Sword/Shield since the last quarterly report; it went up by 680k over three months, no doubt helped along by the Mario Movie.

Tears should also end up passing Sword/Shield and Scarlet/Violet; the big question is, can it outsell BOTW?

There would be 22 fewer games

Wow ... 20% of the chart is only Pokémon !

Makes me wonder in turn what are the games currently sitting in 101st place to 122nd place ...

BOTW is actually slowly gaining on Smash Ultimate; perhaps by the end of its lifetime, it will overtake.

A Zelda game achieving higher sales than Smash Bros is insane and would have been unthinkable before BOTW.

@curl-6 The fact that it's surpassed Mario Odyssey and SWSH (and SV likely won't pass it either) is even more unthinkable. Not to mention the fact that it's going to outsell the original Pokemon games and could come with in a couple million of Super Mario Bros. Excluding ports, remakes and other re-releases, no Zelda game before this ever reached 10 million. Now we have on that just crossed 30 million and another that should do it in short order.