March release had nothing to do with its success though, it didn’t matter what time of year it released with the games in the first 12 months. It could have released in November 2016 and had this lineup

November 2016-BotW & 1-2 Switch

February 2017-Mario Kart 8 Deluxe

March 2017-ARMS

April 2017-Splatoon 2

May 2017-Mario & Rabbids

June 2017-Pokken Tournament DX

July 2017-Fire Emblem Warriors

August 2017-Super Mario Odyssey

September 2017-Xenoblade Chronicles 2

October 2017-Bayonetta 1+2

November 2017-Kirby Star Allies

It’s not like you would see some radical change with these games moving up a few months.

I've been thinking it will be September 2024 (beats the holiday rush and gets a second wind during the holidays). I've also been thinking that it will be announced around April 2024 (if it's launching next FY, I do think it should be announced before their FY results in May 2024) with a big blowout around June or even July 2024.

People talk about how Switch has games in 2024 and while the Dark Moon remake and Peach game look decent, they are by no means a system seller. They can still have these games release on Switch and then have a Switch 2 near the end of the year with 3D Mario & Mario Kart. All that means is that Nintendo will be able to release their heavy hitters on Switch 2 and still support Switch with smaller titles. Probably the biggest title sales wise for Switch in 2024 would be another Pokemon remake. Maybe DK could be big if it's real. Prime 4 should be the best selling Metroid title but that's almost certainly not a 10m+ seller. I think the big titles for Switch next year will be Dark Moon remake, Peach game, Pokemon remake, Prime 4, DK, KI:U remake, Mario Sports title (please be baseball), a TTYD remaster and WW/TP HD ports. That's honestly a solid lineup 7+ years after launch but that's not another 15m year for Switch imo. Probably barely 10m and likely below 10m if a successor does in fact release next year.

Yeah, early 2025 is my guess.

Since 2020 (when sales exploded from AC + Covid) I think 2024 has been the clear year for a successor and always thought it was so strange people were expecting a successor in 2022 or early 2023. Though back then I thought Spring 2024 was the most likely launch period. Since then I've wobbled back and forth between anywhere from Spring 2024 to even late 2025 or early 2026 if Nintendo actually got aggressive with HW and SW price cuts and a new probably 'Home' model. But as of now it doesn't look like Nintendo is going to do much or anything in the way of using actual sales tactics and aggressive business strategies to keep pushing the Switch, and will instead just let it coast on out relying on nothing more than its popularity and whatever software is left for it.

At this point I'd say most likely either Fall 2024 or Spring 2025 will be the successor launch, and I think where it lands will just depend on how sales are going by mid-2024. If sales are really starting to slump the first half of next year, as they were doing this year before Zelda boosted everything, then I don't see why Nintendo would opt for a slow christmas season in 2024 with the successor coming out Spring 2025. Would make more sense to have a strong Christmas season with the new system coming out late 2024. 2D Mario was the last big mega selling (15+/20+ million) first party game I was expecting on the system, and that is coming out this Fall as I expected. While there are certainly smaller games that are a could come out next year like DK, Prime 4, and others I don't think we'll see a major AAA huge selling game come out in 2024 for Switch. So with Switch software starting to wind down, and HW likely really start to slow the next 12 months, it seems like it would be a bad business decision for Nintendo to pass on a big holiday season and wait until 2025 to launch the successor.

So I only see a 2025 launch happening for the successor if Nintendo does actually get aggressive with selling the Switch with significant discounts to keep HW sales going fairly strong through all of 2024. This I don't think Nintendo will do, so I gotta say we'll have a new Nintendo system for holiday 2024.

We'll get the successor along with MK9 and 3D Mario and a little casual party game, and potentially Prime 4 if it doesn't come out on Switch, in Fall 2024. I could see either a November holiday release or even as early as a late September Fall release in order to go for a double launch + holiday sales boost.

Q2 2024

Early to mid 2024 imo, it could be Q1 or Q2.

https://www.neogaf.com/threads/switch-benchmarked-running-pc-games-natively-gow-dmc5-gtav-genshin-psv-ps2-cinebench-3dmark-geekbench-scores-vs-snapdragon-full-breakdown.1659076/

its time for a new Switch.

Theres plenty of room for improvements, with current tech, without it costing a arm and a leg.

Complex? It's just HDMI over USB-C. Nothing complex about it... In-fact the technology existed before the Switch.

I.E. Nokia Lumia 950 with the continuum display.

Apple also had screen mirroring since the iPhone 5 over the lightning connector.

PC's have mirrored displays using a single digital cable for decades.

The technology is actually extremely old and very easy to implement.

The Switch wasn't new to the concept.

Comes down to money in the end.

In a consoles golden years, platform holders want to move software, not hardware as that is where the cash is.

Launching a new device is expensive.

I would envisage 2024 to be the most likely window, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's pushed out to 2025, Nintendo is still doing re-releases, remasters and remakes and pushing a ton of software.

I think Nintendo is going to surprise many with a Q2 or Q3 2024 release instead of a more standard Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 release. Nintendo can do as they please, and releasing a new system between April-September wouldn't hurt them.

I am talking about design, not technology.

If there wasn't any design work they would have come with a handheld, a charger, a hdmi to USB cable and a pro controller; put them all in a box and call it done.