Since 2020 (when sales exploded from AC + Covid) I think 2024 has been the clear year for a successor and always thought it was so strange people were expecting a successor in 2022 or early 2023. Though back then I thought Spring 2024 was the most likely launch period. Since then I've wobbled back and forth between anywhere from Spring 2024 to even late 2025 or early 2026 if Nintendo actually got aggressive with HW and SW price cuts and a new probably 'Home' model. But as of now it doesn't look like Nintendo is going to do much or anything in the way of using actual sales tactics and aggressive business strategies to keep pushing the Switch, and will instead just let it coast on out relying on nothing more than its popularity and whatever software is left for it.
At this point I'd say most likely either Fall 2024 or Spring 2025 will be the successor launch, and I think where it lands will just depend on how sales are going by mid-2024. If sales are really starting to slump the first half of next year, as they were doing this year before Zelda boosted everything, then I don't see why Nintendo would opt for a slow christmas season in 2024 with the successor coming out Spring 2025. Would make more sense to have a strong Christmas season with the new system coming out late 2024. 2D Mario was the last big mega selling (15+/20+ million) first party game I was expecting on the system, and that is coming out this Fall as I expected. While there are certainly smaller games that are a could come out next year like DK, Prime 4, and others I don't think we'll see a major AAA huge selling game come out in 2024 for Switch. So with Switch software starting to wind down, and HW likely really start to slow the next 12 months, it seems like it would be a bad business decision for Nintendo to pass on a big holiday season and wait until 2025 to launch the successor.
So I only see a 2025 launch happening for the successor if Nintendo does actually get aggressive with selling the Switch with significant discounts to keep HW sales going fairly strong through all of 2024. This I don't think Nintendo will do, so I gotta say we'll have a new Nintendo system for holiday 2024.
We'll get the successor along with MK9 and 3D Mario and a little casual party game, and potentially Prime 4 if it doesn't come out on Switch, in Fall 2024. I could see either a November holiday release or even as early as a late September Fall release in order to go for a double launch + holiday sales boost.
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