I've been thinking it will be September 2024 (beats the holiday rush and gets a second wind during the holidays). I've also been thinking that it will be announced around April 2024 (if it's launching next FY, I do think it should be announced before their FY results in May 2024) with a big blowout around June or even July 2024.
People talk about how Switch has games in 2024 and while the Dark Moon remake and Peach game look decent, they are by no means a system seller. They can still have these games release on Switch and then have a Switch 2 near the end of the year with 3D Mario & Mario Kart. All that means is that Nintendo will be able to release their heavy hitters on Switch 2 and still support Switch with smaller titles. Probably the biggest title sales wise for Switch in 2024 would be another Pokemon remake. Maybe DK could be big if it's real. Prime 4 should be the best selling Metroid title but that's almost certainly not a 10m+ seller. I think the big titles for Switch next year will be Dark Moon remake, Peach game, Pokemon remake, Prime 4, DK, KI:U remake, Mario Sports title (please be baseball), a TTYD remaster and WW/TP HD ports. That's honestly a solid lineup 7+ years after launch but that's not another 15m year for Switch imo. Probably barely 10m and likely below 10m if a successor does in fact release next year.
