FF16 sales are plummeting fast with another -63% drop. E12S sneaks into the top 10 with a 35% increase though.

Both Switch and PS5 continue to sell better than they deserve to. One system is old, and the other doesn't sell much software. There has to be some sort of exporting going on and at this point the sales of neither console really reflect what the demand is in Japan alone.

The PS5 currently is in one of its biggest years though and it continues to struggle against the current Switch in Japan. Final Fantasy launch week didn't even see the PS5 come out ahead. Meanwhile, the aging Switch still has Mario Wonder, which will surely sell as high as Mario is in the game, as well as titles that will sustain its sales.

It's that continued support and interest in the current Switch as well as the big yearly decline I think we'll see for PS5 once Switch 2 arrives that might keep the PS5 from the numbers you're projecting. If 2023-2024 is the PS5's peak as many believe, what are sales going to look like in Japan as they naturally decline against Switch 2 starting its (presumably) winning run? Maybe all of the exporting will help but I just don't expect a big enough interest for the PS5 in Japan going forward.

The PS4 surge in Japan is bizarre too, along with the PS5 maintaining a solid baseline even though it's been widely available in Japan now for months.

A fat chunk of these systems (Switch too) must be going to China.

Here's an article on it

https://www.reuters.com/technology/china-approves-84-domestic-online-games-december-2022-12-28/

Chinese government did freeze any approvals for foreign software for 18 months and the feeling in China seems to be that the government is not going to allow nearly as much video game software to be published period as they fear it is causing game addiction and they don't want foreign influence.

In a year-end meeting this month, Pony Ma, founder of Tencent, said that the company had to get used to Beijing’s strict licensing regime, and the number of new games that China approves would remain limited in the long run.

This seems to extend to Hollywood movies too, the Chinese government is not approving as many Hollywood movies for release there. 

So in that context, it suddenly makes a lot of sense why Chinese buyers suddenly are wanting a Japanese system instead. Would you want a system where the government can just cut off all software (even Chinese companies for a time were halted from releasing games, but foreign software got it the worst)? If I owned a PS5 or Switch in China, honestly I'd sell my system and buy a Japanese version instead. No new game approvals for foreign developed games (that means Japan/North America/Euro developed games) for 18 months is ridiculous.

Yeah I'm only talking about that. It won't reach the Wii of course.

The issue is by the time the Switch 2 comes out the PS5 will already be at 5-6m. It'd have to kinda fall off a cliff to not reach 9.5m the following few years especially if this is a longer generation. I don't see why the Switch 2's success would cause that when it's able to sell as well as it is currently despite the current Switch having an amazing stretch right now. It's not like the Switch's 2021 and 2022 were why the PS5's first couple years weren't good, if there was ample stock then it would've sold perfectly fine despite the Switch doing amazing then.

The question is going to be how many of these PS5s are actually in Japan? Because I think it's not as much of a reach any longer to think a fairly sizable chunk of the PS5s sold this year have gone to China.

There's no reason for a Chinese buyer to buy a Chinese PS5 (or Switch or PS4 frankly, I guess XBox is just dead in Asia too but if Chinese game censorship was a concern for you, then the last console you'd want is the American one anyway, lol) if they can get a Japanese PS5 instead. 

Once the PS5s have been gathered they are loaded into vans and taken to another location for storage until they are shipped overseas.

📸Pic: @n19860117 5 Aug 2022 pic.twitter.com/ukkLMP84e9

— Jodie De Haarte ~ J-Cat (@jodiede) February 10, 2023

You can see Chinese buyers/Japanese exporters loading up on systems there to ship off to China. Suspect this is happening with the Switch also, the Zelda surge is also probably happening in China, but you wouldn't want to buy a Chinese Switch for that game. The thing is the demand for this is not going to be temporary because from what I gather gamers in China don't trust the government to not ban a bunch of games again, so you can't really invest in an official Chinese market PS5 or Switch or XBox without fear of being locked out of games at any time. 

Not as good week software wise, most games are on a downtrend except for Everybody 1 2 Switch lol.

Switch and PS5 are maintaining more than reasonable sales while the XSeries is just back to being in mortis

This is spectacle !

Tbf the claim that next gen is coming in 2028 is just an assumption from Microsoft. There's always the possibility of PS5 being the last console from Sony, or next gen releasing earlier than expected. Since we don't know what Nintendo's next console will be like, there's really no telling. However if our assumption that it will be a Switch 2 is correct, I do think PS5 is slightly in danger since power isn't really that important nowadays. PS4 pro isn't that much different than a PS5. Perhaps we haven't seen its full capabilities/potential, but the PS5's marketing point in Japan is that it's able to play more AAA games that demands more power without spending more than 30k yen on a PC setup. If Switch 2 is on par with the PS4 and has dlss, most AAA should be able to play on it with close to no problem. So the only reason to buy a PS5 would be its exclusive. Are there going to be PS5 exclusives where lots of JP users would want to play? I doubt it.

Everybody 1-2-Switch! is up 35% and went from #20 last week to #10 this week.

FF16 having decent legs for a JRPG, all things considered.

The recent surge in sales is not only because of China's rules but also Japanese retailers rules. Until recently, you had to win lotteries and have an address to buy these systems. Now it is free market.

Another factor is the very weak yen. EVERYONE wants to buy from Japan right now because the yen is so pathetic. so pretty much all electronics and high ticket goods are booming.

No, believe it or not, but the game has actually good wom. It not only increased in physical sales but it also rose a lot on the eshop in it's second week.

It's usually not that extreme, but there are quite often games with low first week sell through and then very steady long legs.

The second Mario + Rabbids game is a good example of that or Taiko no Tatsujin: Rhythm Festival.