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archbrix on 13 July 2023
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Norion said:
archbrix said:

If Switch 2 stumbles out of the gate and doesn't establish itself like many of us expect, then that changes the conversation.  Otherwise, it's highly unlikely in my opinion.

I don't see how the Switch 2 will cause enough of an impact since the PS5 will have sold 5-6m by the time it comes out and I can't see how it doesn't do another few million afterwards.

Even with a conservative 4.6m LTD by the end of this year an average of just 1m for the next 5 years is enough to beat the PS4 which seems easy unless the PS6 is a 2027 release.

The PS5 currently is in one of its biggest years though and it continues to struggle against the current Switch in Japan. Final Fantasy launch week didn't even see the PS5 come out ahead. Meanwhile, the aging Switch still has Mario Wonder, which will surely sell as high as Mario is in the game, as well as titles that will sustain its sales.

It's that continued support and interest in the current Switch as well as the big yearly decline I think we'll see for PS5 once Switch 2 arrives that might keep the PS5 from the numbers you're projecting. If 2023-2024 is the PS5's peak as many believe, what are sales going to look like in Japan as they naturally decline against Switch 2 starting its (presumably) winning run? Maybe all of the exporting will help but I just don't expect a big enough interest for the PS5 in Japan going forward.